Somalia's political transition risks destabilisation

Subject Outlook for upcoming elections. Significance The constitutional mandates of the parliament and presidency expire in August and September, respectively. Lawmakers are working to create a new political system and hold elections in order to move forward the transitional phase. However, with less than two months until the vote, critical details remain unresolved, including procedural and oversight aspects of the elections and the status of the capital city, Mogadishu. Impacts Donor states will pressure Somali authorities to complete elections without delay. Al-Shabaab will exploit communal grievances arising from the electoral crisis and try to grow its support base. International forces will continue their mission into 2017 even if some troop-contributing countries redeploy forces. Some African Union forces unable to pursue al-Shabaab in remote areas will likely focus more on force protection.

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Subject The women's rights' debate. Significance The National Assembly on March 5 voted a new law setting out harsher sentencing for perpetrators of violence against women. The law does not introduce any major legal innovations, but appears to be a concession to the long-neglected progressives. The bill provoked virulent opposition among Islamist deputies, who declared it contrary to Muslim law and a threat to family stability. The debate around the bill has revealed a resurgence in public acceptance of Islamist political language. In an authoritarian political system that is neither autocratic nor democratic, social and cultural policy provides the main outlet for political debate. Impacts The new law is unlikely significantly to improve the protection of women from violence. Other laws touching on cultural identity will follow, eg new legislation on the status of the Amazigh (Berbers). Such debates are likely to increase as the government seeks to distract from concerns over low oil prices and constitutional reform. A mismanaged cultural identity debate, coupled with limits on the regime's ability to buy social peace, could lead to social instability.


Significance Violent protests engulfed the capital city last week as police clashed with demonstrators demanding President Joseph Kabila honour presidential term limits. The president's intransigence has driven the violent reaction, but divisions within the opposition are also fuelling the violence. Impacts Recent violence may have ended the prospect of opposition unity in the near term. The DRC is unlikely to experience a third civil war but security may deteriorate, especially in Kinshasa. The international community may broker peace talks led by the African Union. The increasing instability will almost certainly shatter the DRC's fragile economic recovery.


Subject The status of the professions in China. Significance The Xi administration has successively targeted the intellectual professions, including journalism, academia and legal practice. This profoundly affects the generation and circulation of information within China's political system, and eliminates potential venues for dissent and change. Impacts Greater reliance on think tanks affiliated with Party and state bodies for policy advice will aggravate departmental protectionism. Surveillance and social monitoring efforts through information technology will be stepped up. Contact between China and the outside world through the intellectual professions will be curtailed, impairing people-to-people dialogue.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-131
Author(s):  
Mbuzeni Mathenjwa

The place and role of local government within the structure of government in Africa has attracted much public interest. Prior to and after independence, African countries used local government as the administrative units of central governments without their having any legal status, to the extent that local authorities were under the strict control of central governments. The autonomy of local government is pivotal in the democratisation of a country. The United Nations, European Union and African Union have adopted treaties to promote the recognition and protection of local government in the state parties’ constitutions. Accordingly, this article explains the status of local government in Africa and its impact on strengthening democracy in African states.


Author(s):  
Martin Mennecke

Universal jurisdiction permits states to investigate and prosecute perpetrators of certain widely condemned offences, irrespective of whether they possess any of the traditional territorial, nationality, or other jurisdictional links to the offence. As a legal principle, African states accept the principle of universal jurisdiction, but in the past decade they have pushed back against it due to the perception that the courts of various European states have unfairly targeted African government officials that they perceive as enemies. Against this background, the chapter examines the status of the universal jurisdiction debate and how it relates to the role of the International Criminal Court and that of the African Union and its member states, in addition to evaluating the proposals made by African states within the framework of the United Nations to address the African government concerns about double standards in the application of universal jurisdiction through a special ad hoc committee of the General Assembly.


foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.E.A. Ashu ◽  
Dewald Van Niekerk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the status quo of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy and legislation in Cameroon. Design/methodology/approach Using a qualitative method, this paper examines historical data from sectoral administrative reports, plans, declarations, commitments and speeches, texts and peer-reviewed journals on disaster and risk management in Cameroon for the period 1967-2017. Empirical data from ten selected government sectors were used to analyze the status quo, together with quantitative data collected by using four instruments (i.e. HFA Priority 1 & 4, USAID Toolkit, GOAL Resilience Score and the Checklist on Law and DRR). Findings Findings show that Cameroon largely still practices disaster response through the Department of Civil Protection. Transparency and accountability are the sine qua non of the state, but the lack thereof causes improper implementation of DRR within development institutions. DRR is seen as an ad hoc activity, with the result that there is not effective institutional capacity for implementation. The need to develop a new national DRR framework is evident. Originality/value Analyzing the status quo of DRR in Cameroon could assist with the review and reevaluation of a new DRR framework within the Cameroonian territory.


2013 ◽  
Vol 116 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Dora ◽  
Dirk Van Goubergen ◽  
Maneesh Kumar ◽  
Adrienn Molnar ◽  
Xavier Gellynck

Purpose – Recent literature emphasizes the application of lean manufacturing practices to food processing industries in order to improve operational efficiency and productivity. Only a very limited number of studies have focused on the implementation of lean manufacturing practices within small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in the food sector. The majority of these studies used the case study method and concentrated on individual lean manufacturing techniques geared towards resolving efficiency issues. This paper aims to analyze the status of the lean manufacturing practices and their benefits and barriers among European food processing SMEs. Design/methodology/approach – A structured questionnaire was developed to collect data. A total of 35 SMEs' representatives, mostly CEOs and operations managers, participated in the survey. The study investigated the role of two control variables in lean implementation: size of the company and country of origin. Findings – The findings show that lean manufacturing practice deployment in food processing SMEs is generally low and still evolving. However, some lean manufacturing practices are more prevalent than others; e.g. flow, pull and statistical process control are not widely used by the food processing SMEs, whereas total productive maintenance, employee involvement, and customer association are more widespread. The key barriers encountered by food SMEs in the implementation of lean manufacturing practices result from the special characteristics of the food sector, such as highly perishable products, complicated processing, extremely variable raw materials, recipes and unpredictable demand. In addition, lack of knowledge and resources makes it difficult for food processing SMEs to embark on the lean journey. Originality/value – The gap in the literature regarding the application of lean manufacturing in the food sector is identified and addressed in this study. The originality of this paper lies in analyzing the current status of the use of lean manufacturing practices among food SMEs in Europe and identifying potential barriers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arménio Rego ◽  
Miguel Pina e Cunha ◽  
Dálcio Reis Júnior ◽  
Cátia Anastácio ◽  
Moriel Savagnago

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study if the employees’ optimism-pessimism ratio predicts their creativity. Design/methodology/approach In total, 134 employees reported their optimism and pessimism, and the respective supervisors described the employees’ creativity. Findings The relationship between the optimism-pessimism ratio and creativity is curvilinear (inverted U-shaped); beyond a certain level of the optimism-pessimism ratio, the positive relationship between the ratio and creativity weakens, suggesting that the possible positive effects of (high) optimism may be weakened by a very low level of pessimism. Research limitations/implications Being cross-sectional, the study examines neither the causal links between the optimism-pessimism ratio and creativity nor other plausible causal links. The study was carried out at a single moment and did not capture the dynamics that occur over the course of time involving changes in optimism/pessimism and creativity. Future studies may adopt longitudinal or quasi-experimental designs. Practical implications Managers and organizations must consider that, even though positivity promotes creativity, some level of negativity may help positivity to produce creativity. Originality/value This study suggests that scholars who want to study the antecedents of creativity (and innovation) must be cautious in focusing only on the positive or the negative sides of individuals’ characteristics, and rather they must explore the interplay between both poles. Individuals may experience both positive and negative states/traits (Smith et al., 2016), and this both/and approach may impel them to think divergently, to challenge the status quo and to propose “out the box” and useful ideas.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 10-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon Q. Yang

Purpose – This study aims to ascertain the trends and changes of how academic libraries market and deliver information literacy (IL) on the web. Design/methodology/approach – The author compares the findings from two separate studies that scanned the Web sites for IL-related activities in 2009 and 2012, respectively. Findings – Academic libraries intensified their efforts to promote and deliver IL on the web between 2009 and 2012. There was a significant increase in IL-related activities on the web in the three-year period. Practical implications – The findings describe the status quo and changes in IL-related activities on the libraries’ Web sites. This information may help librarians to know what they have been doing and if there is space for improvement. Originality/value – This is the only study that spans three years in measuring the progress librarians made in marketing and delivering IL on the Web.


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