Demand far outpacing supply makes US property pricier

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Trends ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Home Construction ◽  
First Time

Subject US housing outlook. Significance US property prices are well above the pre-2008-09 global financial crisis housing ‘bubble’ level but there is much variation across cities. Higher prices have not encouraged home construction, which remains low by historical standards. While household formation slowed in the first few years after 2008-09, it has picked up in recent years. However, fewer households are buying homes than before 2008-09, partially as zoning legislation is tightening in major cities and partly as demographic and social trends are increasing the average age of first-time homebuyers. Impacts The political tide will continue shifting against 'big tech', making regions where the tech sector is key at risk of a house price crash. The Council of Economic Advisors report will raise attention on homelessness, which is much worse in states with less affordable housing. The rising cost of US higher education will continue delaying the average age at which households form, raising the age of homebuying.

House prices and credit cycles: the case of Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia ◽  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.Design/methodology/approachTo this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.FindingsOur findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.Practical implicationsThe study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.

An early warning system to identify house price bubbles

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-310
Author(s):  
Daniel Hagemann ◽  
Monika Wohlmann
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
House Price ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Bubbles

Purpose The global financial and economic crisis resulting from the US housing crisis has shown that house prices can have far-reaching consequences for the real economy. For macroprudential supervision, it is, therefore, necessary to identify house price bubbles at an early stage to counteract speculative price developments and to ensure financial market stability. This paper aims to develop an early warning system to signal speculative price bubbles. Design/methodology/approach The results of explosivity tests are used to identify periods of excessive price increases in 18 industrialized countries. The early warning system is then based on a logit and an ordered logit regression, in which monetary, macroeconomic, regulatory, demographic and private factors are used as explanatory variables. Findings The empirical results show that monetary developments have the highest explanatory power for the existence of house price bubbles. Further, the study reveals currently emerging house price bubbles in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Practical implications The results implicate a new global housing boom, particularly in those countries that did not experience a major price correction during the global financial crisis. Originality/value The ordered logit model is an advanced approach that offers the advantage of being able to differentiate between different phases of a house price bubble, thereby allowing a multi-level assessment of the risk of speculative excesses in the housing market.

Housing markets and policy in the UK and the USA

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Jones ◽  
Harry W. Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose – This paper aims to examine how the exogenous shock of the global financial crisis has had a differential impact on the housing markets of the USA and UK. Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by examining the nature and dynamics of the global financial crisis. It presents a detailed comparison of institutional and housing market characteristics in each country. A particular focus is the differences in mortgage funding and subprime lending trends over the decade leading up to the financial crisis. Findings – The analysis demonstrates the distinctiveness of the recent housing cycles and the geography of the downward price adjustments. Relative unemployment rates play a key role in these outcomes. Despite the different dynamics of the boom and bust, there is a common legacy in terms of the collapse of house building, repossessions/foreclosures and falling home ownership rates. The short-term policy responses by both governments addressed the same target issues in alternative ways but with different outcomes. Longer-term solutions are still being debated in both countries. Originality/value – Innovatory insights are provided by the comparison of the sub-national spatial pattern of the recent house price cycle in two countries.

Macron could change France's political landscape

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
First Time ◽  
Do So

Subject Emmanuel Macron's political movement. Significance The political movement En Marche (Let's Go) was founded by France's Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron on April 6. It is the first time that a party has been launched by a minister while still in office. Macron has so far shown no intention of resigning but he may have to do so later this year as criticism about his ambiguous status is mounting from within government ranks. Impacts Macron's novel approach is likely to appeal to those frustrated with established parties and lack of progress. Support for the movement could encourage the next government to attempt more far-reaching reforms. The movement provides him with a platform that will help his future political ambitions.

Schools as learning organizations

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1106-1115
Author(s):  
Laurie Field
Keyword(s):  
Learning Organization ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Learning Organizations ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
The Political ◽  
Educational Improvement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Time ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the desirability and attainability of schools becoming learning organizations. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a critical analysis based on a wide-ranging review of the “schools as learning organizations” literature. Findings The notion of learning organization applied to schools is fundamentally flawed. Most notably, schools as learning organizations are conceptualized in so many different ways that it is possible to claim almost anything; the political aspects of shared learning are inadequately handled; and poor quality scholarship is commonplace. Practical implications There are repeated claims in the educational improvement literature that that there are significant benefits for schools that become learning organizations and, as a result, school leaders should steer schools in this direction. However, this paper critically challenges these claims, concluding instead that schools and their leaders should ignore calls to become learning organizations. Originality/value Many scholars, together with agencies such as the OECD, have suggested that, for schools, the learning organization is both a desirable goal and an achievable endpoint. The value of this paper is that, for the first time, these claims are subjected to a comprehensive critical review, revealing them to be hollow rhetoric rather than attainable reality.

Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuen-Wei Tham ◽  
Rosli Said ◽  
Yasmin Mohd Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

Residential property prices’ modeling: evidence from selected European countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iustina Alina Boitan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
House Price ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Real Growth

Purpose The purpose of this study is to contribute to the relatively narrow existing residential real estate literature by developing and validating several univariate forecasting models, to reliably anticipate future house price dynamics across several European Union (EU) countries. Design/methodology/approach The research approach relies on the time series analysis, by using the Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology to explore the trends of residential property prices in selected EU countries and to obtain a snapshot of the potential signs of change to be witnessed by domestic residential markets on a short time-period. The analysis has been performed distinctly for each country in the sample, to account for country-specific past and future trends as well as similarities in their house price growth rate evolutions. The models were estimated for a broad sample of quarterly observations during 1990-2015, while the forecast horizon ranged between the third quarter of 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2016. Findings The findings suggested that residential property prices’ real growth rate can be modeled through the Box–Jenkins method for France, The Netherlands, Sweden and UK. The pattern of Italy’s residential property prices’ real growth rate cannot be explained by means of univariate ARIMA models, being more suited for multivariate models. Originality/value The article subscribes to the need for timely, high-frequency and quality data about house price trends in Europe, to increase the accuracy of forecasts and prevent the appearance of bubbles on real estate market. It compares residential property prices’ dynamics across European countries to identify housing markets with similar patterns of their prices.

Islamist poll victory will strengthen Jordanian king

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Law ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Refugee ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
First Time

Significance The Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, became the single largest party in the September 20 poll, winning 11 out of 130 seats. Arguably the best organised political movement in the country, the IAF participated in the polls for the first time since 2007, having ended its boycott in response to a new election law. However, voters were sceptical of the possibility for change, with turnout at just 37%. Impacts Security forces may struggle to identify and neutralise disaffected Islamists. Despite the new parliament, Jordan's aid-dependence will keep it loyal to US interests in the region and implementing IMF reforms. Domestic political tensions will rise, exacerbated by a faltering economy and a large Syrian refugee presence.

Pragmatic protectionism may persist in many economies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Protection ◽  
Legislative Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
First Time

Subject Fears of a period of imminent 'deglobalisation' involving more protectionism and less integration. Significance The WTO forecast for world trade growth has fallen below GDP growth for the first time since the global financial crisis. Historical evidence suggests a clear link between trade liberalisation and higher GDP growth, raising fears that increased protectionism, sharpened by Brexit and the US presidential election campaign, will dampen global growth. Impacts The EU is likely to scale back the provisions of both CETA and TTIP, particularly on investment protection. Beyond the attention on Trump, the US landscape appears to have shifted more broadly towards deglobalisation. An increase in protectionist policies is likely to lead to more court challenges or legislative action to reverse them. Retaliation between countries may increase, particularly in countries that are likely to be most affected such as China and Mexico. Historically, protectionism has had a bigger impact than competitive devaluations; the trend poses a risk to world growth prospects.

Benin’s Talon is poised to secure re-election in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
Debt Issuance ◽  
First Time

Significance He has said that he will announce next month whether he will contest the April 2021 presidential election. On the economic front, Talon’s first term has been very successful, but on the political front he has weakened democratic institutions, with virtually no parliamentary opposition for the first time since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1990. Impacts Talon will likely intensify diplomatic efforts to repair relations with Nigeria following the latter's ongoing border closures. Talon will look to increase Benin’s external financing, principally through debt issuance, to fund his development agenda. Benin's recent decision to withdraw from the African Court of Human and Peoples' Rights further highlights Talon's authoritarian tendencies.

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