Opposition weakness will empower Canada's Trudeau

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Significance Canada's opposition parties are engaged in protracted, 18-month contests to elect their next leaders, who will challenge Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the governing Liberals in the 2019 federal election. With Trudeau passing the one-year mark in office, many of both parties' most prominent figures are sitting the races out, judging Trudeau's electoral position unassailable. However, once the leadership contests gain momentum, they will reveal important political and policy splits that could offer early indications of Trudeau's prospects for re-election. Impacts The governing Liberals will legislate mostly unchallenged at the federal level. However, provincial premiers may be a source of more robust opposition to Trudeau's policy agenda. The internal divisions in the NDP may diminish the political clout of labour unions in Ottawa. A pro-business centrist Conservative leader could alienate social conservatives and shake loose a splinter movement.

Muslim Brotherhood will struggle to recover in Egypt

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical View ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
State Functions

Significance Cairo’s aversion to political Islam has seen it dismantle the aging leadership of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB), most of whom are either dead, in prison or scattered. The remaining members are divided, with many taking a highly critical view of the MB’s activities during the one-year presidency of Mohammed Morsi. Impacts Poor economic management has led to growing resentment from Egypt’s poor and those outside the political and military elite. The government will continue to force media to adopt state-sanctioned positions and terminology when reporting on the MB. The MB threat allows the authorities to repress public dissatisfaction with the economy or other state functions and responsibilities.

Myanmar policy zest could suffer in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Government Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
The Military

Significance Her comments hint at the political difficulties facing the one-year-old NLD-led administration in 2017. Impacts Myanmar holds 19 by-elections on April 1, which will measure the NLD’s popularity. Government support for the military will aid civil-military ties but alienate minorities and democratic activists. International pressure over the Rohingya controversy will mount. Only modest progress is likely on the ethnic peace process this year, which will frustrate Beijing. The NLD could face a challenge from a new political party on the left in 2020.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

scholarly journals Red capital in Hong Kong

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Wang-Kaeding ◽  
Malte Philipp Kaeding
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comparative Capitalism ◽  
Liberal Societies ◽  
One Country Two Systems ◽  
The One ◽  
Systems Framework ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, to recount the scale, composition and agents of red capital in Hong Kong; second, to conceptualise the peculiarity of red capital; and third, to explore the impact of red capital on the political and economic institutional setup in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach The paper consults the comparative capitalism literature to conceptualise the phenomenon of red capital. The paper gathers data from Hong Kong Stock Exchange and indices to provide an overview of red capital. Furthermore, the case study of 2016 Legislative Election is deployed to investigate the mechanisms of red capital’s influence. The paper concludes with a summary of how red capital may challenge the validity of the “One Country, Two Systems” framework. Findings This paper argues that red capital replicates China’s state–capital nexus in Hong Kong and morphs the game of competition in favour of Chinese nationally controlled companies. In tandem with the emerging visibility of the party–state in Hong Kong’s economic sphere, the authors observe attempts of Chinese economic actors to compromise democratic institutions, deemed obstacles to state control. Originality/value This paper is the first attempt to systematically embed the discussion of red capital into comparative capitalism literature. This study provides conceptual tools to examine why red capital could pose a threat to liberal societies such as Hong Kong. Through this paper, we introduce a novel research agenda to scrutinise capital from authoritarian states and investigate how the capital is changing the political infrastructure shaped by liberal principles and values.

Thatcherism: An Historical Perspective

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 17-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. H. Green
Keyword(s):  
Political Ideology ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
The Political ◽  
British Politics ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Margaret Thatcher ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Election Manifesto

Margaret Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party in November 1990, but both she and the political ideology to which her name has been appended continue to fascinate pundits and scholars. Indeed, since Thatcher's resignation in November 1990, curiosity about her political legacy has, if anything, increased, fuelled in part by the memoirs produced by the ex-premier herself and a large number of her one-time Cabinet colleagues. Since the early 1980s the bulk of work that has appeared on Thatcherism has been dominated either by what one might describe as the ‘higher journalism’ or by political science scholarship, both of which have been most exercised by the questions of what Thatcherism was and where it took British politics and society. In this essay I want to look at Thatcherism from an historical perspective and thus ask a different question, namely where did Thatcherism, and in particular the political economy of Thatcherism, come from?Given that Margaret Thatcher became leader of the Conservative party in 1975 this might seem a logical starting-point from which to track Thatcherism's origins. Some have argued, however, that Thatcher's election in itself was of little importance, in that the Conservative party's leadership contest in 1975 was a competition not to be Edward Heath, and that Thatcher won because she was more obviously not Edward Heath than anyone else. This emphasis on the personal aspects of the leadership issue necessarily plays down any ideological significance of Thatcher's victory, a point often reinforced by reference to the fact that key elements of the policy agenda that came to be associated with Thatcherism, notably privatisation, were by no means clearly articulated in the late 1970s and did not appear in the Conservative Election Manifesto of 1979.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Thai king's demise will slow economy and delay polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
Crown Prince

Significance Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has ordered a one-year period of mourning and proclaimed Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn as the next monarch. The crown prince has been the designated heir since 1972. Impacts US-Thai relations could weaken further in coming years. Thaksin's link to the crown prince is the most serious risk to a smooth succession. The economic impact of the transition will be short-lived.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

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