Protectionism demands trade rethink in Argentina

Subject Argentina's foreign trade. Significance In 2016, an improvement in the terms of trade and higher export volumes of agricultural commodities helped to offset a fall in international commodity prices and a fall in manufactures exports. The trade balance reached a surplus of 2.1 billion dollars last year, after a deficit of nearly 3.0 billion in 2015. Impacts Exports will remain dependent on the evolution of commodities prices and Brazilian demand. The government will continue to encourage trade liberalisation to control inflation. The new global context should drive a revision of trade strategy, initially focused on the approach to Asia-Pacific bloc.

Subject Outlook for the trade balance. Significance Exports declined in the first half of 2016. The January devaluation and export tax reductions proved insufficient to offset lower export prices and the Brazilian recession. By contrast, import volumes climbed. Gradual real currency appreciation and trade liberalisation boosted purchases, especially of consumer goods and vehicles. The government is encouraging trade liberalisation as a tool to control inflation and improve local competitiveness. Impacts Growing foreign trade deficits will leave the country more exposed to sudden shifts in foreign capital inflows. Though trade liberalisation may boost long-term competitiveness, the government may lack the political support needed to sustain the policy. Growing foreign debt will raise fears of a new external crisis, given Argentina's poor record.


Author(s):  
Shao Hung Goh

Purpose Warehouses are large emitters of greenhouse gases and their impact on climate change is under increasing focus. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the barriers that inhibit the adoption of low-carbon warehousing in Asia-Pacific and their links to carbon abatement performance. Design/methodology/approach An exploratory conceptual model was first developed from a literature review of the general barriers to sustainable supply chain practices and hence potentially in low-carbon warehousing. A large contract logistics services provider in the Asia-Pacific served as the subject of a case study. The perceived barriers to low-carbon warehousing were derived from an internal survey of respondents from the case company and regressed against carbon abatement outcomes at that organization’s operations across the region. Findings Results show that the case company reduced carbon emissions by 36 percent on a revenue-normalized basis between 2008 and 2014, but with relatively lower success in emerging markets vs mature markets. An Elastic Net regression analysis confirms that technology and government-related factors are the most important barriers in the case company’s efforts to “decarbonize” its local warehousing operations. However, results suggest that the customer-related barrier, which is highly correlated with the government barrier, is in part driven by the latter. Research limitations/implications This case study is based on a single multinational company in Asia-Pacific, but nonetheless serves as an impetus for more cross-sectional studies to form an industry-wide view. Originality/value An extended stewardship framework based on the natural resource-based view has been proposed, in which logistics services providers take on a proactive boundary-spanning role to lower the external barriers to low-carbon warehousing.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.


Subject The political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Despite combined GDP growth of nearly 20% over the last two years, the fall in commodity prices has exposed the downside risks in the government's economic strategy and seriously damaged its political credibility. A government cash crisis driven by a 20% fall in expected revenues in 2015 is fracturing the country's politics. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a history of getting through crises, although this has usually involved a changing of the prime minister and an IMF programme. Impacts The government budget crisis and foreign exchange shortages will hurt growth in 2016. There is a risk of forced sale of foreign-owned businesses and land. Foreign exchange shortages may be the greatest risk to businesses.


Subject The outlook for the new government. Significance President Lenin Moreno, who began his four-year term on May 24, faces several short- and medium-term challenges. His most immediate concern will be to restore growth and maintain economic stability. Containing the fallout from corruption scandals and improving public finances are other key challenges Moreno will face in the opening phase of his presidency. Impacts Dealing with the fallout from the Odebrecht scandal will be an early test of Moreno’s presidency. Exporters will press the government to secure new trade deals as dollar strength continues to hit their global competitiveness. Trade liberalisation will create new economic tensions as competition within the domestic market intensifies.


Subject Shifts in Russian foreign trade. Significance The dollar value of foreign trade rose last year as a result of strengthening global oil prices. Trade is shifting gradually to non-European, non-US locations, mainly in Asia and above all China. For imports, this trend is particularly marked for sanctioned items such as hi-tech electronics and for foodstuffs where Moscow has banned Western imports. Impacts The trade shift towards Asia should offer opportunities to pursue the government policy of 'de-dollarisation'. The dollar cannot be easily abandoned because of its importance to the oil trade. Economic relationships, new and old, will form a basis for Russian political engagement. Russia will promote free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and rapidly growing countries such as China and Vietnam.


Subject Russia's far eastern regions. Significance Russia's far eastern zone includes its least developed regions, and the government is making determined efforts to attract investment, especially as China is now seen as a partner rather than an economic threat. The region's prime assets are proximity to growing Asia-Pacific economies and abundance of natural resources. Impacts Successful investment is likely to widen the urban-rural gap as industrial development is concentrated in a few locations. Vladivostok's status as a commercial centre will rise with the establishment of an 'onshore-offshore' business site on nearby Russky island. The city will strengthen ties with South Korea, offering maritime and potentially rail connections as well as making Mazda cars.


Subject Prospects H2 2021: India Significance As India’s second wave of COVID-19 infections subsides, the government and businesses are looking with cautious optimism to the immediate future. However, only about 4% of the population has been fully vaccinated against the disease. While exports of domestically made jabs remain on hold, Delhi is attempting to strengthen trade relations with partners in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.


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