Contradictions will weaken new US security plan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Strategic Innovation

Significance Mattis’s launch speech is one of the first US foreign policy pronouncements of 2018, and since President Donald Trump’s administration released its NSS on December 18, 2017. NSS statements periodically detail the incumbent administration’s intended priorities and approach to foreign, defence and security policy. Impacts Trump’s administration will still need multilateral bodies in foreign policy, but friends and foes may reject ‘America First’. The administration will seek increased military spending, modernising forces and infrastructure, including the nuclear arsenal. Current congressional frictions over public spending could hinder increasing military spending. US focus on non-traditional security threats will grow, with new resources and strategic innovation needed.

Trump defence spending plans will hit US fiscal limits

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
President Elect

Significance President-elect Donald Trump plans to expand military spending as part of his "America First" foreign policy but has so far offered few details of how this expansion will be financed. The new budget will have significant commercial implications for private entities involved in US defence procurements and for Washington’s force posture abroad. Impacts Trump may focus on increasing US-based missile defence capabilities instead of regionally focused systems based overseas. Political complications over NATO deployments may ensue if US spending outstrips that of its allies. Expansion of the nuclear arsenal beyond current modernisation plans could spark an arms race with Washington’s rivals.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

Religion’s role in US foreign policy to grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
Religion And Politics ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Religious Persecution ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Any Trump-Rouhani meeting would undoubtedly involve discussion of religion and politics, since these issues have set both governments at odds since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. This is important, since the nature of the influence that religion is having on US foreign policy is changing under Trump’s administration. The administration has often downplayed the role of ‘values’ (understood to be the promotion of democracy and human rights) in foreign policy. Now, religious freedom is emerging as a values framework. Religion is also used more frequently to justify the administration’s policies towards complicated issues including Iran and Syria, and counterterrorism. Impacts Defense Secretary James Mattis would likely oppose any attempt at regime change in Iran. Emphasising religious freedom will play well to pro-evangelical voters, likely most benefitting Republicans. The administration will increase funding for anti-genocide and anti-religious-persecution measures. Perceptions that the Trump administration is ‘anti-Muslim’ could constrain it advancing foreign policy in Muslim countries. US sanctions could be imposed on religious grounds, which could affect US and other investors.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

US foreign policy faces growing domestic pressures

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Letter ◽  
Internal Policy ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Defence Expenditure

Subject US national security policy and personnel. Significance On September 11, President Donald Trump instructed his national security team to prepare for a second in-person summit with North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un, likely inspired by Kim’s recent letter requesting this. Trump’s directive appeared to have blindsided Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been managing denuclearisation talks with Pyongyang since the first Kim-Trump summit in June, and disregarded the view of almost all of his new national security team (its second iteration since his inauguration) that Pyongyang has no real intention of denuclearising soon. Impacts If Democrats make gains in November, they are likely to seek to curtail defence expenditure, including current projects. As elections near, Trump's decision-making may place more store in his political instincts than US intelligence agencies’ estimates. The new security team is unlikely to bring greater amity to US-China ties, partly given internal policy disagreements.

EU leaders’ approaches to Trump will vary

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Central Pillar ◽  
The Eu

Significance Trump’s election has undermined the stability of the transatlantic partnership that for decades has been a central pillar of foreign policy for leading European countries and for the EU itself. Impacts Trump’s attacks on Germany’s trade surplus helped bring the issue to the fore and Berlin is likely to raise investment after the election. Merkel will seek to counter any claims from other parties that her pledge to raise defence spending implies subservience to Trump. EU leaders may highlight the role non-military spending plays in improving security to counter Trump's demands for higher defence spending.

Trump Warsaw visit will widen intra-European rifts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Eu

Significance Poland is looking to forge closer ties with Washington to establish its leadership in CEE, counterbalance Franco-German dominance of the EU and present a united front against Russia. Other CEE countries are looking elsewhere for allies, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Hungary demonstrates. Impacts Germany and Austria will move to maintain influence in CEE, probably through partnering with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Russia will work to avoid any threat to its natural gas monopoly in CEE, with Bulgaria and Hungary its levers of influence. Trump will point to gas and arms exports to Poland as a US foreign policy success, though US hawks will remain sceptical about Russia.

US human rights panel will have widespread impact

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Natural Law ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Natural Rights ◽  
Religious Liberty ◽  
The Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lgbt Issues

Significance Pompeo launched the commission on July 8, charging it with providing “fresh thinking” on human rights where concepts of rights have “departed from our nation’s founding principles of natural law and natural rights”. However, the body’s precise activities are left vague. The commission is also widely interpreted as an effort to infuse the current framework for human rights in US foreign policy with more conservative social values. Impacts The commission could be a flashpoint in budget negotiations down to September/October and beyond. The body will likely reinterpret rights more conservatively, including on abortion and LGBT issues, and elevate religious liberty. The pro-Israel lobby will welcome the commission, partly as the UN has been criticised as being ‘anti-Israel’.

Biden will prompt reset of US-Caribbean relations

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Regional Interests

Significance The US foreign policy stance towards the Caribbean is likely to become more constructive under Biden. As previously, Washington’s main regional interests will relate to Haiti and Cuba. Biden’s stance towards the latter in particular will be scrutinised during his first few months in office. Impacts US economic stimulus plans and the evolution of the pandemic will have knock-on effects for Caribbean economies. A relaxation of restrictions on Cuba could facilitate increased investment into the country, especially in the tourism sector. Increasing Chinese engagement with the region will concern Washington, potentially fostering more US investment.

Biden will wield expert US foreign policy team

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
African American ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Rights ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Career ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Significance If confirmed by the Senate, Austin will be the first African-American in that post. His selection is strongly supported by minority rights groups, partly because his military career immunises him from any claims of tokenism. This comes as Biden is announcing his wider national security team. Impacts It will be far easier to confirm Biden nominees if the Democrats hold the Senate. Biden’s attention will be arrested by COVID-19 and the US economy. Biden will increase the focus on non-traditional security threats including climate change and disease.

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