ASEAN will struggle to resolve regional problems

Subject Singapore's leadership of ASEAN. Significance At the start of last month, Singapore took over as chair of ASEAN. The regional grouping faces pressing challenges of diplomacy, trade and banking. Impacts ASEAN-China relations will be stable whereas ASEAN-US relations will depend on the Trump administration’s priorities. ASEAN Economic Community integration will remain slow. Bank liberalisation will favour wealthier ASEAN states. New e-commerce taxes and regulations will be implemented nationally without coordination by ASEAN.

Subject The outlook for an ASEAN e-commerce boom. Significance A February study commissioned by the ASEAN Business Forum forecasts that electronic retailing in South-east Asia's six more advanced economies could grow by 25% annually up to 2017, driven by rising incomes, improving technology and a services boom. Expected to be worth at least 60 billion dollars once it matures (beyond 2017), the e-commerce market will help expand regional trade connections as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is enacted from late 2015. Impacts Rising incomes, growing business connectivity and investment in retail portals will spur online sales. Services will be targeted at younger, technology-aware consumers who prefer mobile telephones over computers. Market potential may not be realised without investment in supporting services, including payment systems.


Subject Outlook for the ASEAN Economic Community. Significance Just four months in, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) integration is proving difficult. Recognising the slow progress, ASEAN ministers meeting in Vientiane earlier this month agreed on a delayed 2025 timetable for integrating financial services. The action plan aims to free more funding for national development by liberalising equity, bond and insurance markets and allowing banks to operate on a regional basis, but it has had only cautious backing. Impacts ASEAN integration will increase regional demand for insurance cover. Resolving ASEAN's development gaps needs investment in infrastructure, education and administration systems. Non-tariff barriers and external preferential trade deals will challenge the AEC's coherence for the foreseeable future.


Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.


Subject Gender inequality, business and economic growth as ASEAN integrates economically. Significance South-east Asian economic ministers agreed at a summit earlier this month in Manila to work towards a more inclusive role for women in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Impacts Institutional changes will be needed for women to realise their full economic potential. Small and medium-sized businesses owned by women will struggle to access financing. Reform of parental leave and childcare would help retain vital skills in the workplace.


Subject The ASEAN Economic Community and medical investments. Significance Rising incomes and demographic shifts are driving demand for improved health services across South-east Asia and the region has become an important production base for pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. With the promulgation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in late 2015 -- which will help to close development gaps, improve infrastructure and expand private healthcare access -- various medical industry investment opportunities are coming. Impacts Commercial healthcare operators will be needed to finance emerging healthcare markets. A rise in public-private partnerships is probable. Medical investors will tap the growth potential for hospital services, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.


Significance The ASEAN Summits will attempt to maintain momentum for greater integration, particularly on the new 2025 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) blueprint. The EAS will focus on regional tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the South China Sea, and see the first visit of a serving US president to Laos. Impacts Russia will strengthen ties with South-east Asia and ASEAN, but avoid entanglement in maritime disputes. ASEAN could lose international traction in 2017: Duterte is still developing foreign policy experience. Regional economic issues will be considered outside South-east Asia this year also in Peru at the November APEC summit.


Subject Outlook for ASEAN's institutional development. Significance Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has formally accepted ASEAN's chairmanship for 2017. ASEAN has met some success in 2015-16, including launching the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, most recently, it has been challenged by the fallout from the July 12 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNLCOS) ruling against China over the South China Sea, which has exposed internal and organisational weaknesses. Impacts Member states' bureaucracies and central banks will define the ASEAN integration dynamic. Individual South-east Asian states rather than ASEAN will drive trade and security initiatives. Progress on closing intra-ASEAN economic development and governance gaps will be slow.


Subject South-east Asian governments' responses to cryptocurrencies. Significance Bitcoin is being traded in several ASEAN countries despite uncertainty over its legal basis. A Singapore judge in December dismissed an application for a summary judgement filed by a UK-based company suing a local cryptocurrency exchange, ordering the lawsuit to proceed to trial. Impacts Cryptocurrency could help with financial inclusiveness as the region integrates under the ASEAN Economic Community. Regulatory improvements may help reduce trading risks and draw more traders into the cryptocurrency industry. The skirting of capital controls could lead to exchange stresses once trading activity picks up. The G20 summit next month will discuss cryptocurrencies; coordinated policy efforts will increase the credibility of crypto assets globally.


Subject Outlook for the ASEAN chairmanship in 2018. Significance Singapore has started chairing ASEAN for 2018 after the Philippines rotated the chair as planned at November's meetings. Manila’s 2017 chairmanship was unsteady at times, partly because Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte changed his foreign secretary mid-year. ASEAN’s slogan for 2018 is “Resilient and Innovative”. Impacts Singapore will seek to further implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community. Counterterrorism will see more ASEAN cooperation, partly given southern Philippine concerns about Islamic State. Singapore will push for greater ASEAN technological connectivity and cybercrime preparedness. While negotiating the RCEP, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam will also eye agreeing an eleven-state Trans-Pacific Partnership.


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