Mercenaries are a valuable if wayward Russian asset
Significance The Russian authorities have been cautious in crafting their response to the US air and artillery attack that targeted advancing Syrian government forces accompanied by members of the 'Wagner' force, recruited and trained in Russia but not officially acknowledged by the government. The Kremlin has pointedly avoided framing the incident as a US-Russian military clash. The number of deaths is unclear -- probably not the hundreds that some claim, but closer to 30 or 40. Impacts The Kremlin will seek to ride out the domestic scandal by insisting no army forces were involved. Aware that US forces will respond decisively, Russia will redouble efforts to push deconfliction efforts in Syria and avoid open challenges. In Syria, Wagner is likely to be subject to tighter control from Russian military commanders.