COVID-19 will hit US GDP but recovery may be V-shaped

Subject US economic outlook. Significance Before the COVID-19 outbreak, economic activity was growing at 2.0-2.5%, the stock market and employment were close to record highs, new home sales were rising and consumer spending had momentum. The immediate outlook for the US economy is now very unclear as the number of COVID-19 cases has surged above 3,800 and the virus is present in 49 states, prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on March 13. To bolster financial market liquidity and support businesses and households, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 100 basis points to 0-0.25% on March 15. Impacts The public spending for the COVID-19 outbreak will add to the budget deficit as no party is willing to raise taxes in an election year. The Fed may cut rates more but will risk inflation if rates stay low too long; if recovery is rapid, rates may rise sooner than expected. Heavily indebted firms and individuals will seek assistance from the government, especially in the travel and entertainment industries. A sharper economic downturn will test Trump’s managerial skill as his voters expect him to be able to resolve their problems quickly.

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1039-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole F. Stowell ◽  
Martina Schmidt ◽  
Nathan Wadlinger

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to make readers aware of the extensiveness of healthcare fraud in the USA and how it involves and affects the government, healthcare providers, insurance companies, patients and the public. In addition, recommendations are made that may help control this pervasive type of fraud. Design/methodology/approach A range of different journal publications, information from government health institutions and law enforcement websites, healthcare fraud cases and healthcare laws are used as a basis to provide information about how fraudsters are committing healthcare fraud and how to prevent this fraud from occurring. Findings Despite increased funding and prosecution efforts by the government, healthcare fraud continues to be a major threat to the US economy and public. While healthcare fraud will never be eradicated, specific efforts can be deployed to help rein in these complex fraud schemes. Practical implications The paper provides a useful resource of information on healthcare fraud for healthcare providers, insurance companies, patients and the public that may help combat healthcare fraud and prevent financial losses. Social implications Every dollar saved from combating fraud could be used to improve access to more or better health services and can, thereby, save lives. Originality/value This paper provides recommendations regarding healthcare fraud that could help prevent this large drain on the US economy.


Subject Chad's political and economic outlook. Significance President Idris Deby came to power in a 1990 military takeover and has now ruled the country for 27 years. In an election in April, Deby won a new five-year term as president. However, there is considerable resentment among opposition politicians and the public about his lengthening rule. In October, the government introduced new austerity measures, citing the need to reduce the budget deficit. This has provoked new strikes and protests. Impacts The government will maintain its combative approach to foreign oil companies. Low-level insecurity will persist in the Lake Chad border region. Chad will remain near the bottom of international development indices in 2017.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 601-632
Author(s):  
Kuok Ho Daniel Tang

PurposeThis review compares the primary occupational safety and health (OSH) laws of the ASEAN members against the major provisions of the primary OSH laws of the United Kingdom (UK) and United States (US) grouped under the themes for OSH law adopted by the International Labour Organization (ILO).Design/methodology/approachThis review employs the 11 themes for OSH law adopted by the ILO as the basis of comparison. As the themes lack specificity in terms of their respective contents, specific facets of the themes are drawn from the review of the primary OSH laws of the UK and the US.FindingsThe review shows that primary OSH laws of the ASEAN members encompass the fundamental aspects of the ILO OSH themes particularly the regulatory framework, scope, roles of authorities, duties of employers and employees as well as safety inspection and enforcement. The review demonstrates a lack of provision of worksite consultation by the authorities, the emphasis on research, experiment and demonstration by the government as well as certain aspects of training.Practical implicationsOSH in many developing members of the ASEAN is still evolving to advocate the basic rights of employees, protect the safety of the public and ensure the welfare, safety and health of employees are upheld at workplaces. There is an obvious disparity in the coverage of the primary OSH laws of the nations, resulting in widely varied OSH implementation. This study contributes to advancement of the primary OSH laws in developing ASEAN members by highlighting areas of their primary OSH laws that can be improved. Improvement of the primary OSH laws is crucial to subsequent improvement and development of subsidiary laws to provide for adequate protection at workplaces.Originality/valueMost studies of OSH laws in the ASEAN are country-specific and often theme-specific. There is currently no study which compares the primary OSH laws of ASEAN nations using themes derived from the ILO as well as primary OSH laws of the UK and the US. This review is one of its kinds to use such an approach in providing a comparative overview of the primary OSH laws of all ASEAN nations.


Subject Outlook for post-Brexit markets. Significance The UK vote to leave the EU is exacerbating distortions in financial markets. Government bond and equity prices are rising, sending contradictory signals about the global economic outlook. Yields on US and German bonds partly retraced their steps last week as initial fears about the consequences of the Brexit vote diminished. However, the yield on ten-year Treasuries remains 20 basis points (bp) lower than on referendum day, June 23, and the S&P 500 index stands close to a record high. The expanding universe of negative bond yields is fuelling investor appetite for risk assets, including equities. Impacts Markets may be underestimating the likelihood of higher US interest rates given recent signals of improvement in the US economy. Demand for safe-haven assets could stay strong, with the price of gold rising 5.6% since the referendum. Heightened uncertainty may mean that the oil price rally is over; it could even reverse given the persistent supply glut.


Significance The Argentine financial crisis and economic downturn are affecting Uruguay at a time when its economy is cooling while popular discontent is rising over the difficulty of finding employment and maintaining purchasing power, as well as increased crime concerns. President Tabare Vazquez’s approval continues to fall. The governing Frente Amplio (FA)’s chances of retaining power after the October 2019 elections are declining. Impacts Difficulties in Uruguay’s two largest neighbours will weigh heavily on the economy in coming months. The FA is likely to lose power in 2019 after 15 years in the presidency. The substantial fiscal deficit gives the government no option to try to boost growth and consumption through stimulus.


Subject Prospects for the US economy to end-2020. Significance Economic activity suddenly stopped in mid-March to curb the spread of COVID-19, ending the longest GDP expansion ever. Tens of millions of employees have been laid off but the government has mitigated further damage by sending all citizens money, offering unemployed workers extra insurance, and offering firms different types of loans that will be forgiven if they keep paying salaries, rent and utility expenses. Activity is restarting, sector by sector, community by community, but the recovery will be disjointed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-102
Author(s):  
Sajeev Abraham George ◽  
Anurag C. Tumma

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to benchmark the operational and financial performances of the major Indian seaports to help derive useful insights to improve their performance. Design/methodology/approach A two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology has been used with the help of data collected on the 13 major seaports of India. The first stage of the DEA captured the operational efficiencies, while the second stage the financial performance. Findings A window analysis over a period of three years revealed that no port was able to score an overall average efficiency of 100 per cent. The study identified the better performing units among their peers in both the stages. The contrasting results of the study with the traditional operational and financial performance measures used by the ports helped to derive useful insights. Research limitations/implications The data used in the study were majorly limited to the available sources in the public domain. Also, the study was limited to the major seaports which are under the Government of India and no comparisons were carried out with other local or international ports. Practical implications There is a need to prioritize investments and improvement efforts where they are most needed, instead of following a generalized approach. Once the benchmark ports are identified, the port authorities and other relevant stakeholders should work in detail on the factors causing inefficiencies, for possible improvements in performance. Originality/value This paper carried out a two-stage DEA that helped to derive useful insights on operational efficiency and financial performance of the India seaports. A combination of the financial and operational parameters, along with a comparison of the DEA results with the traditional measures, provided a different perspective on the Indian seaport performance. Considering the scarcity of research papers reported in the literature on DEA-based benchmarking studies of seaports in the Indian context, it has the potential to attract future research in this field.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Joyce

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the 2016 elections for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) and to compare them with those that took place in 2012. It seeks to evaluate the background of the candidates who stood for office in 2016, the policies that they put forward, the results of the contests and the implications of the 2016 experience for future PCC elections. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based around several key themes – the profile of candidates who stood for election, preparations conducted prior to the contests taking place, the election campaign and issues raised during the contests, the results and the profile of elected candidates. The paper is based upon documentary research, making particular use of primary source material. Findings The research establishes that affiliation to a political party became the main route for successful candidates in 2016 and that local issues related to low-level criminality will dominate the future policing agenda. It establishes that although turnout was higher than in 2012, it remains low and that further consideration needs to be devoted to initiatives to address this for future PCC election contests. Research limitations/implications The research focusses on the 2016 elections and identifies a number of key issues that emerged during the campaign affecting the conduct of the contests which have a bearing on future PCC elections. It treats these elections as a bespoke topic and does not seek to place them within the broader context of the development of the office of PCC. Practical implications The research suggests that in order to boost voter participation in future PCC election contests, PCCs need to consider further means to advertise the importance of the role they perform and that the government should play a larger financial role in funding publicity for these elections and consider changing the method of election. Social implications The rationale for introducing PCCs was to empower the public in each police force area. However, issues that include the enhanced importance of political affiliation as a criteria for election in 2016 and the social unrepresentative nature of those who stood for election and those who secured election to this office in these contests coupled with shortcomings related to public awareness of both the role of PCCs and the timing of election contests threaten to undermine this objective. Originality/value The extensive use of primary source material ensures that the subject matter is original and its interpretation is informed by an academic perspective.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 770-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunkui Zhu ◽  
Chen Wu

Purpose This paper aims to examine different hypotheses concerning the effects of public service motivation (PSM) and other attitudinal or institutional dimensions on organizational performance (OP). Specifically, based on the experience of Chinese provincial governments, this study provides new evidence about how PSM may affect OP. Design/methodology/approach This study collected data from a survey of different provincial government departments in Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province and Chongqing Municipality in 2011. Using data from 761 respondents, Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to explore the relationships between related factors. Findings PSM, job satisfaction, affective commitment and job involvement have statistically significant effects on OP, and these results are consistent with the findings of previous researches that PSM positively affected OP at a significant level. The results suggest that, if civil servants have a strong PSM, the performance of their organizations will be high. Research limitations/implications Future research should look for additional factors that affect OP, comparing employees’ perceptions of an organization’s performance with objective data to determine whether, and to what degree, subjective measures of performance are valid measures of OP in the public sector. Practical implications In the process of improving government performance, it is significant to give attention to the government employees’ mentality. The government training and promotion system should encourage civil servants to care about the public interest. A more flattened organization should be considered as part of the next steps in government reform, and more opportunities should be provided to involve more government employees in policy making. Originality/value This study helps to clarify the effects of individual factors of PSM on OP in China in a tightly controlled bureaucratic environment, where related data are hardly accessible.


2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


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