Policy in China still puts growth before deleveraging

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Business In China

Subject Growth and deleveraging in China. Significance China will have to sacrifice a portion of its growth if it wants to reduce its dangerous debt burden. Reducing credit growth will almost inevitably lead to an even higher reduction in GDP growth. This is a price the Chinese government is not yet prepared to pay, but it could be forced to act in the medium term if it wants to avoid a financial crisis. Impacts Investors, traders, central banks and governments should prepare for continued GDP growth, but a rising risk of a sharp slowdown. Rating agencies should remain sceptical regarding the government’s campaign against leverage and risk. Foreign banks wanting to increase their business in China must interpret government statements cautiously. Producer prices have risen since late 2016 after a spell of deflation, boosting profits; this will continue, helping them pay their debts.

China issues new cybersecurity review measures

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lester Ross ◽  
Kenneth Zhou
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Strategic Alliances ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Extensive Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Foreign Products ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Business In China

Purpose To describe and analyze the implications of the new Measures (the “Measures”) for Cybersecurity Review jointly promulgated on April 27, 2020 by twelve Chinese government departments led by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). Design/methodology/approach Defines the scope of the Measures, explains the functions and obligations of critical information infrastructure operators (each, a CIIO), outlines the self-assessment and cybersecurity review process and discusses the implications of the Measures for foreign companies doing business in China. Findings The Measures impose an obligation on CII operators to apply for a cybersecurity review when they intend to procure network products and services that present or may present a national security concern. Such review will focus not only on national security and data leakage concerns, but also on supply-chain security concerns. The cybersecurity review will likely further the decoupling between China and the US. Practical implications While the Measures are not formally intended to discriminate against foreign products and services, the promulgation of the Measures will have a significant impact on foreign companies that supply network products or services to CII operators in China. Originality/value Practical guidance from lawyers with extensive experience in advising Chinese, US, European and other companies on laws and regulations related to competition, cross-border investments, joint ventures, strategic alliances and international trade matters.

South African government faces public-sector showdown

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
African Government ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Political Position ◽  
The Face

Significance The negotiations follow the government’s refusal last year to pay the final annual tranche of a previous three-year deal. Containing the public-sector wage bill is seen as key for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration to rein in a spiralling debt burden. Impacts The three main rating agencies may postpone their next assessments until the wage talks gain greater clarity. Government firmness in the face of union demands could undermine Ramaphosa’s hold on the ruling ANC. With unions in a weak political position, they may have to stomach government intransigence due to lack of alternatives to Ramaphosa. Substantial concessions to unions would be divisive amid difficult budgetary choices such as below-inflation increases on social grants.

Curbing debt while targeting growth will test China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Equipment Manufacturing ◽  
Automobile Sales ◽  
Manufacturing Growth

Significance Modest progress is underway in rebalancing towards more consumption and less reliance on exports and investment. GDP growth is on target, helped by buoyant housing and automobile sales. Many of these have been financed by debt though, adding to concerns that prioritising GDP growth has left the economy too reliant on credit. The debt burden is a concern, particularly corporate debt. Impacts The renminbi is at a six-year low and higher US rates could weaken it further, spooking markets. Foreign reserves are at a five-year low; while import cover is still strong, eroding macro fundamentals are a concern. Strong high-tech and equipment manufacturing growth must be built upon to develop a larger and more sophisticated private sector. The focus on growth targets set in 2010 risks debt resolution costs rising as they are deferred.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

South Africa’s Ramaphosa will tout reform impetus

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Property Rights ◽  
Service Delivery ◽  
Good News ◽  
Policy Statement ◽  
Government Reform ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Budget Policy

Significance A week previously, new Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) showed a worrying deterioration in deficit and debt ratios. However, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration has received good news in the form of 20 billion dollars in new investment pledges following the government's Investment Conference. Impacts Maintaining the expenditure ceiling pleases the market but could undermine service delivery and infrastructure spending. Recent poor polling numbers for the ANC could see growing internal pushback against government reform proposals. Lingering uncertainty over property rights due to government expropriation proposals will remain a concern to rating agencies and investors.

ECB to stay dovish despite ending its QE programme

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
European Central ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance Fears of Europe's financial fragility are rising after the ECB ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme in December. The programme -- which lasted almost four years -- bought over 2.5 trillion euros (2.9 trillion dollars) in government, corporate and covered bonds, as well as asset-backed securities. Impacts GDP growth may pick up in the fourth quarter after idiosyncratic factors hit July-September, but GDP will struggle to build momentum. When the next cyclical downturn hits, fiscal policy will have to help monetary policy in supporting the economy. An ECB rate hike in 2019 would allow Central-East European central banks to hike too, curbing inflationary pressures.

Prospects for African economies in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Prospects for African economies in 2019. Significance Sub-Saharan Africa’s gradual recovery is set to strengthen in 2019 with regional GDP growth seen accelerating to 3.1% from 2.7% in 2018, led by recoveries in the three largest economies -- Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to average around 4% over the medium term, reflecting continuing convergence between high- and low-performing countries, although wide disparities will persist.

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