Complacency will be main threat to Croatia’s tourism

Subject Croatia’s tourism industry. Significance Tourism made up an estimated 20% of Croatia’s GDP in 2017. It was a driver of growth with 13% more foreign visitors year-on-year and a major contributor to last year’s current account surplus. The foreign currency earned propped up the kuna. Foreign tourism accounts for an estimated 7% of employment. Impacts The leaking of better-educated Croatian labour to Western Europe could lead to skills shortages in such industries as tourism. Croatia could fall behind a burgeoning trend towards up-market tourism. Brexit itself is unlikely to affect UK tourism to Croatia which will depend much more on the kuna-sterling exchange rate.

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri

Purpose The purpose of this study is to revisit the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and provide insights into the transmission mechanism connecting budget deficits and current account deficits for five major South Asian countries, namely, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Nepal for the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multivariate framework including real interest rate, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product to avoid the possibility of incorrect inferences caused by omission of relevant mediating variables. The long-run relationship and causality are investigated through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and Toda Yamamoto approach, respectively, for each individual country. The robustness of the results is assessed with the help of Westerlund’s cointegration test and group mean fully modified ordinary least squares (GM-FMOLS), group mean dynamic ordinary least square (GM-DOLS) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimators in the panel framework. Findings Both time series and panel evidences indicate long-run relationship between budget balance (BB) and current account balance (CAB) together with the mediating variables. The results indicate bi-directional causation between the two balances for India and Bangladesh, TDH for Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the reverse causation from CAB to BB for Nepal. Regarding the transmission mechanism, the results indicate the absence of the causal chain postulated by Mundell–Fleming, which predicts that BB causes CAB via interest rate and exchange rate. A CCEMG estimate of the import demand function reveals a positive government spending elasticity of imports suggesting that BB affects CAB by direct impact through demand. Originality/value This study augments the twin deficit literature on South Asian countries by providing insights into the transmission mechanism connecting the BB and CAB. Moreover, the study provides robust evidences on the TDH by using both time series and panel data techniques.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Syed Shaan Abbas ◽  
Muhammad Akhtar

Learning outcomes The paper has the following learning outcomes: to understand the historical and geographical aspect of Pakistan vis-à-vis other countries of South East Asia and the world; to be able to understand the different marketing strategies of the tourism company; to gather the knowledge of many unknown facts which remain out of sight and hardly surface; to boost economy if its facts and figures are given due weight age and followed with true letter and spirit; and to give a big boost to an industry which remains mostly dormant for many decades. The ratio analysis of service sector is explained. How finances can be arranged in shortest time and generates profitability for the company is also discussed. Case overview/synopsis The study provides an overview on the following topics: lack of interest by the Government in promotion; training of tour operators and guide; and managing the expected income from this industry. This study makes the masses aware that how much potential exist in the field of tourism in Pakistan. How the tour operators find huge potential in all segments of tourism and how the big force of trained manpower can be formed and creates employment. Service sector mostly run on equity finances because of lack of collateral, how efficiently they manage the finance for the business year. It gives details of extensive marketing strategy, the huge profit margin in foreign currency and cost volume profit systems of tourism companies. Complexity academic level BBA, MBA and MS. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.


Subject Modest outlook for consumption in Russia Significance Data from the official statistics agency Rosstat suggest that the recession that began in late 2014 is coming to an end, but no one is predicting a spurt in growth. Consumers have been harder hit than during the 2008-09 recession, and falling real incomes have depressed retail sales. While the economy is improving overall, the picture varies widely by geography. Impacts Government spending plans indicate that welfare will be shielded from cuts affecting other areas. Social spending is important to stability ahead of the 2018 presidential election. A relaxation of Western sanctions may boost living standards if it leads to increased capital inflows. However, finance ministry plans to buy foreign currency to preserve exchange rate competitiveness may limit these gains.


Subject CJEU ruling on Swiss-franc mortgages. Significance A long-anticipated ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on October 3 opens the way for the annulment of foreign currency (FX)-linked mortgage contracts in Poland whose terms have been deemed to be unfair by local courts. It is a partial victory for the mortgage holders. Impacts The ruling will shield banks from the immediate conversion of loans into zloty-based contracts at a favourable exchange rate for borrowers. The ruling is non-binding and merely provides guidance for Polish courts. Polish bank stocks and the zloty have fared well since the CJEU announced its decision.


Significance Instead it ordered that all foreign exchange purchases should occur through commercial banks. This move aims to stabilise the value of the naira by reducing effective domestic demand for foreign currency. Impacts The CBN may allow commercial banks to provide forex to retail dealers as an alternative policy. The cost of imported goods and services will increase. A USD3.35bn IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation will bolster Nigeria’s short-term reserve position. Full exchange rate unification will not occur under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 348-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chikafumi Nakamura

Purpose This study aims to analyze exchange rate risks and the choice of exchange rate policies in a small open economy indebted in foreign currency, incorporating the financial accelerator mechanism. Design/methodology/approach To examine discussions on the fear of floating, this study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which a small open economy model has an open economy financial accelerator mechanism as the external borrowing restriction. The author then compares and analyzes the macroeconomic dynamics in response to an exchange rate shock under different exchange rate systems. Findings The most interesting finding is that the currency peg for a foreign currency used in borrowing is more efficient than the trade-weighted currency basket policy, regardless of trade openness or trade share. Practical implications The result implies that in discussions on the fear of floating, more attention needs to be paid to exchange rate risks in finance. It also suggests that exchange rate policy used to mitigate exchange rate risks in finance stabilizes macroeconomic volatility more efficiently. Originality/value The paper provides an answer to the question: which is the more serious problem in the fear of floating and to what would the regime be anchored.


2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen Williams

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to consider the implicit effect of the underlying foreign currency exposure on the performance characteristics of country exchange traded funds. Design/methodology/approach To arrive at an overall estimation of the exchange-traded fund (ETF)’s tracking error, the mean of the three measures of tracking error was calculated for both the hedged (r_LC) and unhedged (r_NAV) return series. Since tracking error does not capture all the risk inherent in a country index fund, the study extends the analysis using the Sortino and Modified Sharpe ratios. Findings The decision to hedge currency risk should not be taken on the sole basis of historical volatilities. The investor must also factor in transactions costs, the possible roll of futures contracts and prevailing interest rate differentials. If the rate on the foreign currency is greater than the dollar (euro) rate, the investor will pay for the hedge. If the rate on the foreign currency is less than the dollar (euro) rate, the investor will gain on the trade. Given that hedging entails additional costs, in cases where the neutralization of currency volatility only reduces risk modestly, it would be advisable to leave the exchange rate risk unhedged. We propose two metrics for ETF investors deciding whether to hedge a country ETF’s underlying currency risk. Originality/value The results highlight a key finding: while the majority of country funds accurately track the performance of the underlying foreign index when measured in the local currency, returns in the fund currency can be much more volatile. In breaking down the sources of country fund volatility, the paper demonstrates the impact of the underlying currency movements on overall fund risk. In cases where the currency impact has a significant impact on fund tracking errors, an index-oriented investor benefits from neutralizing the exchange rate effect. Additionally, as the Sortino and Modified Sharpe measures suggest that the underlying currency exposure offers in most cases a better risk-adjusted return for country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the listing currency, we also calculate the risk minimizing foreign currency exposure for each fund and propose a decision rule based on the net currency variance to decide whether to hedge the ETF’s currency risk. The optimal hedge ratio indicates that US-based investors should only partially hedge the underlying currency risk while European-based investors are better off fully hedging currency risk.


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