Turkey’s Syrian goals will deepen the US breach

Significance Erdogan’s New York meetings will include discussions of the troubled US-Turkish relationship. When a jailed US pastor returns to court in October on espionage charges, Turkey could step back and perhaps take some heat out of bilateral relations by releasing him. However, the chance of a full recovery in relations seems to have passed. Impacts Turkey will further diversify defence procurement outside NATO. Better relations with Germany and the EU will counterbalance worsening US ties. Tourism will recover, switching to Russian and Far Eastern visitors.

Subject Future EU relations with Iran. Significance Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will make his first state visits to Europe during the autumn, to France and Italy. The EU and its member states see July's nuclear deal as opening a new chapter in relations. The EU3 -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- are using the subsequent political momentum to expand bilateral relations and explore new openings for engagement on Middle East security. Impacts Deeper political engagement with the EU widens Iran's partnership options beyond Russia and China. It would also allow Tehran to compete more effectively with the Gulf states for EU attention and resources. If the US Congress rejected the deal, EU sympathies would be with Iran; EU-Iran rapprochement would be hard to reverse. The success of the sanctions-plus-negotiations strategy with Iran could affect other EU sanctions policy discussions, notably on Russia.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.


Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.


2020 ◽  
Vol Volume 4 (Issue 2) ◽  
pp. 454-477
Author(s):  
Ashraf Iqbal ◽  
Dr. Tanveer Hussain ◽  
Javed

The main purpose of the present research is to investigate Pak-Afghan relations in the editorials of US newspapers, The Washington Post & The New York Times and Pakistani newspapers Dawn & The News related to the following issues during the period 1997-2005; A) US as a factor in Pak-Afghan relation, B) Coverage of Islam/Muslims regarding war on terrorism, C) Pakistan’s stance on Pak-Afghan bilateral relations, and D) US’s stance on Pak-Afghan bilateral relations. The time period to be examined in this proposed study spans over eight years regarding the editorial coverage of Pak-Afghan relations in the US and Pakistani leading English Press. Triangulation method based on qualitative and quantitative method was used to conduct the present research. The results show that the editorial contents of USA and Pakistani newspapers were not different regarding Pak-Afghan relations before and after 9/11. The incident of 9/11 changed the American foreign policy towards developing and least developing nations especially Muslims states like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran etc. Pakistani press highlighted the issues regarding the Pak-Afghan relations before and after 9/11 as a favorable and conducive, related to Muslim/Islam regarding war on terrorism. The study suggested that instead of the focus on military resolution of the different problems, rather social bilateral negations should be prioritized which would be long lasting and full of mutual respects and honor.


Significance The September 1 blast at the Cape Canaveral launching site is a setback for Musk's goal of breaking open the market for government and private sector space launch contracts. SpaceX has attempted to demonstrate that it can compete with established launch companies, which are backed by US aerospace giants Lockheed Martin and Boeing. SpaceX's entrepreneurial methods have suggested significant disruption to the global launching business. Impacts Defence procurement reform would boost the US military's capacity to leverage private sector technological innovations. Efforts to reduce US dependence on Russian-manufactured rockets may lose steam if hawkish Senator John McCain is not re-elected. Washington's deployment of THAAD missile defence systems to South Korea will spur Beijing's efforts to develop anti-satellite capabilities.


Significance The ECJ ruling could add to potential disruptions to transatlantic commercial data flows arising from the EU's developing data protection regime that a study for the US Chamber of Commerce valued at 0.8-1.3% of EU GDP. The ruling weakens the United States in negotiations over the new EU regime, as well as over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Impacts The ruling may bolster development of EU-based cloud facilities as EU users seek to avoid the risks of US-based data storage. This could reduce US firms' estimated 76% share of the EU cloud market. It would also lead to further fragmentation of the internet as a global resource.


Subject WTO ruling against Boeing over tax incentives. Significance The WTO ruled on November 28 that Boeing received unfair subsidies as part of an 8.7-billion-dollar tax incentive package passed by the US state of Washington in 2013 for development of the 777X airliner. Boeing’s European rival Airbus hailed the “knockout ruling”, and the French finance ministry argued that the EU could institute “retaliatory measures” should US authorities fail to remove the support. Impacts The Washington state legislature is likely to pull the local production provisions in exchange for an informal agreement with Boeing. Airbus could gain an export credit edge should the US Export-Import Bank’s charter lapse again in 2019 due to Republican opposition. Tighter US restrictions on Iran sales or protectionist steps against China or the Gulf from the new administration would hit both companies.


Subject The non-appearance of an expected EU anti-corruption report. Significance The European Commission’s cancellation of its second report on anti-corruption efforts across member-states and EU institutions removes a key benchmark against which to hold European governments to account at a time when several are attempting to roll back anti-corruption reforms and disable checks and balances. Given the political sensitivity of the first report, the move also feeds populist criticisms that the EU itself is prone to corruption and unwilling to expose itself to scrutiny. Impacts Populist governments appear to be learning from one another that they can remove limits on their power. This will allow interest groups to entrench their political and economic dominance, hindering economic growth in the long run. The US president’s attacks on parts of the media for ‘fake news’ may encourage use of anti-establishment rhetoric to discredit critics.


Significance This is the first visit to Washington by a Thai prime minister since 2005. Thai-US relations have been much cooler since the mid-2014 military coup that Prayuth, as an army general, led to depose Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The visit, therefore, had high symbolism. It was also controversial because Trump is warming ties with a coup leader who has instituted a new constitution that will weaken elected government in Thailand after the next election, which Prayuth told Trump would take place in 2018. Impacts Thailand’s election could be delayed to 2019: two of the required pre-poll ‘organic laws’ will not be passed until end-2018. Thai intellectual property protections will likely be strengthened to avoid sanctions under the US Trade Act’s Section 301. Thai-US anti-Islamic State cooperation will likely be slow to build, partly given southern Thailand’s Muslim-Buddhist conflict. Thailand will push for enhanced trade ties with the EU and post-Brexit United Kingdom.


Significance One bill would prohibit the US government from ever recognising the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Two others instruct the Director of National Intelligence to report on President Vladimir Putin's wealth and on Russian efforts to spread disinformation and undermine the stability of European allies. The fourth is a resolution condemning Putin and subordinates for the 2015 killing of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov. These measures come as larger sanction packages are under discussion. Impacts A proposed US boycott of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June will mark a further downward turn in relations. The EU will retain existing sanctions but new measures mirroring US actions are unlikely. Moscow will focus on replacing Western technological imports with Chinese alternatives and domestic manufacture.


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