China unlikely to meet Turkey's economic aspirations

Subject Turkish-Chinese relations. Significance During a visit to Beijing on July 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed support for greater Turkish-Chinese economic and defence cooperation. His desire for closer ties represents a shift from Ankara’s earlier harsh criticism of Beijing’s treatment of its Uighur minority, Turkic Muslims with whom Turkey feels an affinity. Impacts Although cooperation in the defence industry may increase, China will be reluctant to share its latest military technology with Turkey. Erdogan is keen to show that Turkey can pick and choose its partners as it pleases. Purchasing the Russian S-400s and wooing China is probably part of this broader strategy to position Turkey as a global player.

Subject EU defence cooperation. Significance The adoption by the European Council on December 11, 2017, of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) mechanism marks a significant step towards a European defence union as proposed by the Commission. How well this and other EU defence cooperation initiatives are implemented in 2018 will be crucial for their ultimate success. Impacts The latest EU defence initiatives could incentivise new cooperation frameworks between member states. New initiatives and funding mechanisms could help foster defence industry consolidation in Europe. Europe could gradually expand its ability to operate more independently of NATO and the United States. EU initiatives could complement NATO efforts by helping to counter hybrid warfare and in supporting military mobility across Europe.


Significance This follows Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD)-dominated legislature endorsing a new defence cooperation agreement with Russia on May 10. Impacts Tatmadaw modernisation activity is not evidence of preparation to leave politics. Deeper Russian defence ties with Myanmar will support Moscow's policy reorientation in South-east Asia. Myanmar and Russia are currently unlikely to agree a nuclear power deal. In the short term, substantive Myanmar-Russia counterterrorism cooperation is unlikely. Myanmar's domestic defence industry is likely to grow.


Subject Israel’s defence diplomacy in Europe. Significance Israel is seeking to capitalise diplomatically and economically on growing tension and security threats in Europe by expanding arms sales and defence cooperation. In addition to reaping economic benefits, the government hopes to use deeper defence ties to protect Israel from the growing Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement and actions opposing Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank. Impacts Israeli arms exporters could come into conflict with US defence companies in European markets. Russia’s displeasure with Israeli defence sales in Eastern Europe could encourage arms transfers to Israel’s regional enemies. Demand for the most sophisticated Israeli military technology will rise more sharply.


Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.


foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 582-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Vicente Oliva ◽  
Ángel Martínez-Sánchez ◽  
Francisco Escribano-Bernal

Purpose This paper aims to provide a strategic analysis of firms at the lowest hierarchical levels of the defence industry. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the main results of an exploratory, multiple-case study that analyses the current strategy drivers and their views about the future ones, and their impact at the lowest hierarchical levels of the defence industry in Spain. Findings This investigation develops and analyses a contingency model regarding the strategy impact and effects of firms’ drivers and clients, both mediated by the strategy players because of their huge impact on the defence industry. The research model focuses on the internal relations between technical and commercial activities due to the cause and effect of their capabilities. Simultaneously, pull and push mechanisms boost firms’ capabilities and requirements to provide strategic foresight. Practical implications Ministries of Defence (MoDs) and prime contractors will remain mediating players in the near future even with further implications for the competition of Defence Technological and Industrial Base (DTIB) firms. It implies that firms and MoDs must maintain a close relation and implement more flexible practices, such as open innovation, property rights or new commercialization schemes. Originality/value This study offers insights related to the specific applications and the necessity of commercial and technological areas alignment of these firms for the future.


Subject The Central European perspective on greater EU cooperation in defence. Significance The proposal on August 26 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Central European 'Visegrad Four' (V4) countries for the creation of a European army was the first time such a clarion call had been made collectively by EU leaders, as opposed to the more modest idea of developing European defence cooperation and capability. It is surprising that Poland was part of the initiative, given its commitment to NATO and trans-Atlantic relations, which are often taken as a reason to oppose further EU integration. Impacts Brexit has brought forth a variety of proposals to strengthen the EU's military arm. However, political and operational challenges mean that neither deeper cooperation nor a full EU army will be achieved easily, if ever. Insecurity about Russia and the US NATO commitment to Central Europe underlie the call, but cannot be meaningfully addressed soon. Poland will remain staunchly pro-NATO but must prepare for defence alternatives that can include EU forces.


Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Outlook for Nordic-NATO defence cooperation. Significance The Russian intervention in Ukraine and assertive stance against NATO -- particular in the Baltic Sea region -- has pushed the Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to reassess their defence and security policies in order to be better prepared to manage crises and deter aggression in northern Europe. This constitutes a sharp change in strategic outlook, as the Nordic-Baltic region has been characterised by low tensions, stability and continued economic and political integration since the end of the Cold War. Impacts Nordic participation in multilateral international operations may wane as their defence focus shifts to the Baltic region. Scandinavian procurement programmes present commercial opportunities to defence and aerospace firms. Prioritising bilateral security arrangements may fragment a unified US-Nordics approach to regional security. Closer security ties with the West are likely to compromise Scandinavia's negotiating position with Moscow on other issues.


Subject Denmark's defence policy. Significance Denmark's decision to acquire a new fleet of fifth-generation F-35 stealth joint-strike fighter jets to replace its ageing and non-stealthy fourth-generation F-16s ends a long period of uncertainty around the future of the Danish air force. The purchase of the F-35s will also solidify and deepen Denmark's political-military links to the United States and could open the door for increased cooperation with other northern European countries operating F-35s such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Norway. Impacts The decision will increase the chances of Finland also selecting the F-35 in its upcoming competition to replace its current fleet of F-18s. Participation in future out-of-area operations may be limited, owing to the need to increase the share of the procurement budget. The deal will help solidify Denmark's orientation towards NATO and Washington and away from defence cooperation under the EU.


Subject The impact of the recent Scorpene data leak on India's defence sector and security ties with France. Significance The recent leak in an Australian newspaper of sensitive data on Scorpene submarines, which are being built by French defence vendor DCNS for the Indian navy, comes at a time of multiple challenges for India's defence industry, and a deteriorating strategic environment in India's neighbourhood. Impacts For the foreseeable future, India's military will face a major shortage of key equipment, especially in its submarine fleet. India will struggle to attract significant FDI in defence despite the recent liberalisation of ownership norms. The key deterrents will be India's weak intellectual property regime and lack of skilled staff.


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