Tehran will weigh options to contain plane protests

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
High Level ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism

Significance The authorities’ belated admission of the error, on January 11, sparked new waves of student-led protests across several cities, with outspoken slogans targeting the supreme leader and Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). These coincide with heightened external tensions over the continued fallout from the US killing of senior IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and European countries’ decision yesterday to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal over Iran’s violations. Impacts The incident will play into February parliamentary polls, but if it reduces turnout it could paradoxically help conservatives. With splits emerging between the president and military, further clumsy mishandling of the investigation could revive public anger. If the crisis becomes more serious, high-level resignations could follow.

Iran’s hopes of swift economic recovery will be dashed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader

Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.

June summits signal progress on EU-US trade ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Taxation ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Security Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Cooperation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
High Level ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.

Investors’ sentiment and accruals anomaly: European evidence

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 500-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisca Beer ◽  
Badreddine Hamdi ◽  
Mohamed Zouaoui
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Legal Tradition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Enforcement ◽  
Accruals Anomaly ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether investors’ sentiment affects accruals anomaly across European countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors estimate the model using Fama–MacBeth regressions. The sample includes 54,572 firm-year observations for 4,787 European firms during the period 1994–2014. Findings The authors find that investors’ sentiment influences accruals mispricing across European countries. The effect is pronounced for stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and difficult to arbitrage. The cross-country analysis provides evidence that sentiment influences accruals anomaly in countries with weaker outside shareholder rights, lower legal enforcement, lower equity market development, higher allowance of accrual accounting and in countries where herd-like behavior and overreaction behavior are strong. Research limitations/implications The findings suggest the generalizability of the sentiment-accruals anomaly relation in European countries characterized by different cultural values, levels of economic development and legal tradition. Practical implications The findings suggest to caution individuals investors. These investors would be wise to take into account the impact of sentiment on the performance of their portfolio. They must keep in mind that periods of high optimism are accompanied by a high level of accruals and followed by low future stock returns. Originality/value The research supplements previous American studies by showing the significance of the level of sentiment in understanding the accruals anomaly in Europe. Hence, it is important for future studies to consider investor sentiment as an important time-series determinant of the accruals anomaly, particularly for stocks that are hard to value and difficult to arbitrage.

Citizen Chen: a challenging test for bilateral diplomacy

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Barthélémy Michalon
Keyword(s):  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
High Level

Subject area Diplomatic and consular policies; legal aspects of international relations and Asia regional scenario. Study level/applicability Undergraduate. Case overview In April 2012, high-level officials from China and the USA were about to meet in Beijing in the framework of the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue, organized on a yearly basis. The event was always delicate, due to the ambiguous relationship existing between the two countries, which were at the same time rivals and dependent on one another. That time, the tension previous to the meeting increased significantly: a Chinese human rights activist had just sought and obtained diplomatic protection in the US Embassy in Beijing, thus creating an embarrassing situation for both States' foreign departments […] How could they possibly solve this contentious issue without affecting their already sensitive relationship? Expected learning outcomes Analytical: to be aware of the political nature of the current Chinese Government; to realize the concrete and practical implications of an Embassy's special status; to balance two contradictory objectives, in a specific situation where none of them can be fully discarded; to contrast and try to combine long-term goals (in this case, to maintain a functioning relationship between two main world powers) with short-term objectives (in this case, how to deal with a Chinese activist that required protection against his own country's security forces); to find a modus vivendi (conciliation) between values and interests; to get convinced that certain kinds of negotiations cannot be conceived through a “win or lose” approach: in this case, the only way out must be respectful of the two parties' core interests; and to take into account that image preservation (“face-saving”) must be included within any country's objectives in any situation involving diplomatic means. Conceptual: the purpose is to familiarize the students with specific concepts, such as: best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA), which is to be mentioned as part of the discussion (it is not included in the case study itself); interdependence; (purported) Group of Two; asylum and refuge; Immunity; and sending state/receiving state. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.

West is upgrading cyber offensive capabilities

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Potential Target ◽  
The Us ◽  
Risk Managers

Subject EU responses to US cyber policy. Significance Since the US Department of Defense (DoD) detailed its new cyber strategy in 2015, several European countries have also announced strategies to build dedicated military offensive cyber capabilities. These moves indicate that cyber operations are becoming normal in modern conflict. This has implications beyond military spending, putting pressure on risk managers in potential target sectors while fuelling demand for offensive skillsets. Impacts As more states gain offensive capabilities, the range of operations will multiply, potentially fuelling more conflicts. The market for offensive cyber technologies will grow. US offensive spending may be seen in Moscow as directed against Russia.

Iran’s banking reforms will falter

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Banking Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Standards ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
European Banks ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism

Subject Iran’s banking sector in urgent need of reform. Significance Tehran's banks face major corruption scandals, and a complex policy environment. In July 2016, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) announced major plans to reform the country’s banking system in line with global standards. Iranian banks have been cut off from the international financial system since 2012, owing to sanctions. After the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran expected that the lifting of sanctions would reverse this situation. However, despite interest among Central Asian and Turkish banks, progress has been limited. Impacts European banks will be slow to engage with Iran, fearing unpredictable US penalties. Differing US and Iranian interpretations of sanctions lifting under the nuclear deal may come up before the dispute resolution mechanism. Macroeconomic strains will put depreciatory pressure on the currency. If President Hassan Rouhani fails to win re-election in May, the chances of banking reform would be much lower.

US charges designed to make Russia hacking irrefutable

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Russian State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
To Come ◽  
High Level ◽  
First Time

Subject The US indictment of Russian intelligence officers. Significance The latest indictment to come out of the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is the most striking yet as it targets Russian state actors for the first time. It sets out charges of hacking into Democratic Party networks, stealing more than 50,000 documents and using them for disruptive purposes in the 2016 US presidential election. Despite the considerable level of detail in the evidence offered, the White House has yet to address publicly the issues raised or confronting Russia. Impacts US government, election software providers, parties and social media platforms will face pressure to prepare for the midterm elections. Detailed attribution of cyber interference will likely weaken the notion that perpetrators enjoy a high level of plausible deniability. Hackers will continue to employ 'spearphishing' for its simplicity, success rate and cost-effectiveness.

scholarly journals Harmonization of Arbitration Laws in some Asian and European Countries

Pro Futuro ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gauri Nirwal
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
European Countries ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Recognition And Enforcement ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism ◽  
The Relationship

The present paper studies the relationship between domestic and international arbitration laws and the harmonization factor amongst some Asian and European jurisdictions. During the last decades, there has been a significant change and globalization in the world and with the expansion of businesses and trade a better dispute resolution mechanism is required in order to maintain the harmony in international trade. It has become a necessity to balance the domestic arbitration laws with the international ones. This brief paper identifies and comments on some of the areas where differences remain including differences in recognition and enforcement of arbitral awards in various jurisdictions over the public policy defence, and where further examination and research to reach and solve disputes amicably might be useful.

Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions may grow with time

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
Ultimate Purpose

Subject The goals of North Korea's nuclear programme. Significance The pace of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme has accelerated significantly under its third and current supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, but Pyongyang provides little clarity about its ultimate purpose and what level of capability it considers adequate. Impacts Nuclear blackmail has a poor record of success, but that may not prevent Pyongyang from trying. Pyongyang may continue developing its nuclear capabilities even after it has demonstrated the ability to hit the US mainland. The risk of conflict will rise if Seoul and Washington decide that Pyongyang's aim is not defensive.

A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Action ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Significance The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes. Impacts Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence. The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence. As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse. Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.

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