Guinea-Bissau’s political turmoil will linger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Apparent Loss ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Regional Leaders ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
The Military

Significance The country's political crisis has worsened over the past week, with rival administrations claiming power and the military appearing to throw its weight behind Embalo, a former general who was ‘inaugurated’ despite the Supreme Court failing to certify December’s election result. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which previously accepted Embalo’s victory, has urged the military to refrain from involvement in the crisis and allow the court processes to be completed. Impacts Pereira’s apparent loss, coupled with Embalo's party's growing popularity, could see the PAIGC’s historical dominance in jeopardy. Should his victory be certified, Embalo will likely look to increase defence spending to ensure continued military support. Embalo will probably try to organise another inauguration ceremony this year, with regional leaders in attendance, to legitimise his rule. Pereira and the PAIGC will resist any constitutional amendment that would alter the largest party’s right to appoint the prime minister.

Russia's Armata tank will be formidable but expensive

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Modern Equipment ◽  
New Family ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Ukraine Crisis ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Russia's Armata tank programme. Significance Russia's military is currently undergoing a 700 billion dollar rearmament programme, with Moscow aiming to supply the military with 70% modern equipment by 2020. The reform plan is looking to upgrade Russia's armoured formations with a new family of vehicles collectively called Armata. The Armata tank variant will be far superior to any tank operating in Russia's neighbours as well as many NATO armies. However, it is costly and the Defence Ministry is actively trying to force down the price. Impacts Defence spending has been largely protected from 10% spending cuts but budgetary pressures will remain. It will take time to bring defence and procurement spending in many NATO members up from current low levels below 2% of GDP. The Ukraine crisis will force Russia's defence industry to produce weaponry domestically with less reliance on foreign supplies.

Eastern Ukraine faces more months of no war or peace

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Significance Despite frequent exchanges of fire, the conflict lines in eastern Ukraine remain static as the two sides hold entrenched military positions and are approximately evenly matched. The US delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles will boost Ukrainian morale and irritate Moscow but does not substantively alter the military dynamics. Impacts With presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, Kyiv will opt for continuity over change in its eastern Ukraine policy. Painful concessions on political arrangements for the east could tip Kyiv into a damaging domestic political crisis. Kyiv’s relations with its Western backers will be shaped more by its willingness to reform than by conflict-related developments.

Haiti’s political crisis weighs on economic growth

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance Widespread political turmoil has prevented elections to choose new representatives and senators, as well as the approval of a budget. Protests against poverty and corruption have paralysed Haiti over the last year. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis amid high levels of inflation, rapid currency depreciation and a contraction in GDP. The IMF put a 229-million-dollar loan on hold in June 2019 and has made its support conditional on solving the political crisis and adopting measures needed to stabilise the economy. Impacts Anti-government protests will linger as the opposition continues pressuring Moise to step down. Inflation is expected to pick up pace amid a weakening local currency and economic disruptions resulting from the political crisis. The public deficit will increase in the short term, hampered by a decline in revenue collection due to the economic downturn.

Poll delay would deepen Somalia’s political crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Joint Position ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Leaders

Significance The statements came as regional leaders, some of whom have vehemently opposed a delay, gathered to discuss a joint position on elections, after the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) last week announced it could not organise national elections on time. Impacts All other national priorities, including security and constitutional reform, will take a backseat to finding an acceptable election model. The separate statements by Kheire and Farmajo -- with Farmajo responding to Kheire -- may indicate a growing rift between the two. Opposition politicians will have little influence over the debates, even though some could be major players in the elections themselves.

Leader's third term plan will mar Benin's outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
Regional Leaders ◽  
Negative Sentiment ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Subject Benin's political outlook. Significance Thousands took to the streets of Benin's commercial capital Conotou on December 11 in protest at the government's delaying of local elections previously scheduled for 2013. At the centre of opposition grievances is speculation that President Thomas Yayi Boni will seek a third term in office by introducing a constitutional amendment -- a move fiercely opposed by a broad range of political and civil society groups. Impacts Other regional leaders (eg, Togo's) third term plans -- despite domestic opposition -- could encourage Boni to ignore popular protests. Membership of the Central African Franc zone, which is backed by France, will help maintain macroeconomic stability. Although Benin registered no Ebola cases, negative sentiment towards the wider region has exacerbated investor unease.

Tsai will strengthen Taiwan's defence capabilities

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
The United States ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
The Taiwan Strait ◽  
The Military

Subject Taiwan's defence policy. Significance Taiwan's new president, Tsai Ing-wen, has signalled a major shift in national defence policy. She aims to boost the overall defence budget to 3% of GDP (from 2% currently) and strengthen the domestic arms industry. Tsai hails from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally favours permanent de jure independence from mainland China. Impacts Tsai will tread carefully on sensitive sovereignty issues, trying to avoid provoking China even while raising defence spending. Chinese pressure will constrain Taiwan's ability to secure investment and cooperation on defence projects (except from the United States). Washington will press Taiwan for higher defence budgets and offer access to advanced technologies and weapons. The military balance in the Taiwan Strait will shift further in China's favour. Taiwan will find more support in Washington and Tokyo for inclusion in regional defence architecture.

Central African Republic's path to peace will be rocky

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.

scholarly journals Agami (The Time Ahead, 1984), the First “Short Film” of Bangladesh: Toward a New Cinematic Aesthetic of Imaging Time and Nation

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahmida Akhter
Keyword(s):  
Short Film ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Independent Film ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Alternative Mode ◽  
Political Condition ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
The Military ◽  
Insight Into

Morshedul Islam’s Agami ( The Time Ahead, 1984), focusing on the theme of the Liberation War of Bangladesh, is Bangladesh’s first “short film” or independent film, made outside the domain of commercial film production. The film pioneers in investing the memory of the Liberation War with allegorical potential in order to interpret the socio-political condition of Bangladesh under the military dictatorship of Lieutenant General Hussain Muhammad Ershad. His regime lasted for eight years, from 1982 to 1990. Linear progression of time is interrupted in this film by a constant collapsing of the past, present, and future into each other through the treatment of storytelling, flashbacks, and flashforward. This disruption of time’s flow, I will argue, is employed to serve a nationalistic purpose, offering an insight into the psychic condition of contemporary Bangladesh and its socio-political crisis under the military dictatorship of General Ershad. In analyzing the film, my main concern is to understand how a film like Agami, with its oppositional socialist commitments and with the aspiration of creating an alternative mode of cinematic language, constructs the ideas of gender, nation, and memory during a period of pronounced political turmoil. I will also explore its new cinematic aesthetics as a “short film” or independent film of Bangladesh.

Ukraine's chances of a favourable conflict end recede

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Independent Decision ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Military

Significance The military conflict in eastern Ukraine remains muted, but the breakdown of economic ties, trade, and supplies of power and water makes a political rapprochement look even more remote. Moscow had hoped for direct engagement with President Donald Trump's administration but little has happened, and the four-party (Russian-Ukrainian-German-French) talks process remains in place. Impacts Narrowing economic options will further limit independent decision-making by rebel leaders. The French presidential election result and the likely outcome of German elections allow four-party 'Normandy format' talks to continue. If Ukraine perceives continued Western support, it may act more assertively towards the rebels.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document