Central African Republic's path to peace will be rocky

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

Colombian border violence will Venezuela worsen crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Organised Crime Groups

Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.

Psychological aspect of a Russian military servant’s linguistic persona: communicative onomastic component

Neophilology ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Nadezhda A. Rodina
Keyword(s):  
Military Personnel ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Psychological Characteristics ◽  
Self Awareness ◽  
Psychological Phenomena ◽  
Practical Analysis ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military

We consider the psychological characteristics of the personality of a Russian military servant in his speech activity. The purpose of the work is to conduct on the basis of practical analysis a theoretical analysis of the interaction of members of the military personnel, factors that influence the change in their personality, and also to identify the most striking psychological features of the linguistic persona of a Russian military servant. This issue is relevant at present, since the Armed Forces are of particular interest to the public, including scientific. From the point of view of psycholinguistics, the military society is less studied than in such areas as education, medicine, economics, sports, media, etc. The author of the study describes the essence of the military collective, its formation, structure, the characteristic of socio-psychological phenomena and processes taking place in this society is given. The main biological, psychological, and special changes in the personality of a person who integrates into the military personnel and continues the socialization in it, begun in another community, are listed. During the analysis of the psychological characteristics of the military servant, which are reflected in the formation of his linguistic persona, the author carried out a practical analysis of the qualities of a representative of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in order to identify nickname self-awareness and realize it in the nickname nomination. The research material was a survey based on an open, anonymous questionnaire of the Russian military servants. The results of theoretical and practical analysis can be used in the educational process in both civilian and military universities at seminars and special courses of psychology, psycholinguistics and speech culture.

Russian Arctic military power will grow

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Military

Significance The past year has seen the Russian military expand its exercises and other activities in the region. As well as creating a new joint command for the Arctic, the Kremlin is increasing the capacity of its military and paramilitary forces to operate there, including on search-and-rescue missions. This ramp-up reflects the broader modernisation of the entire armed forces, which Putin reiterated yesterday remained a key priority. Impacts Other countries engage in military activities in the region, but only Russia has taken major steps to militarise its Arctic frontier. Russian leaders profess peaceful motives but warn that Moscow will defend its Arctic interests with force if necessary. Russia will commission a fleet of highly versatile vessels that can serve as tugs, icebreakers or patrol ships.

Possible Philippines police change could hit security

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Drugs And Crime ◽  
Turf Wars ◽  
The Military

Subject The police, military and government in the Philippines. Significance Social Weather Stations polling released on October 6 gave President Rodrigo Duterte 64% net approval, implying that, for all his drugs and crime crackdown's international controversy, most voters support him. However, Duterte's approach to the crackdown risks undoing post-Marcos efforts to separate the functions of the police and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and to remove the army from involvement in law and order issues. Impacts Duterte's pledges of further funding for the military and police will be popular with these organisations. This should mitigate the risk of any police and military plots against Duterte, rumours of which occasionally surface. The army's role in the practical delivery of government policy is likely to grow. Turf wars between the military and police are still a risk, and could undermine security efforts. Further extensions to the crime crackdown are likely.

Turkey's army reform could turn into power grab

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Life ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Turkish Society

Subject The impact of the failed July coup on civilian-military relations. Significance The psychological impacts of the attempted coup across political life cannot be understated; it has far-reaching implications for the political, bureaucratic and even ideological structures of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). In the aftermath of the attempted putsch, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more determined than ever to alter the civilian-military machinery of government in Turkey radically. Impacts The purge and radical reforms will bring into question the TSK's operational and strategic reliability for Western partners. A permanently weakened TSK would ease the way for constitutional reforms strengthening Erdogan's grip on the state. It will take years to rebuild the confidence and prestige the military has lost among broad swathes of Turkish society. Any criticism of the TSK reforms, domestically or from abroad, will meet the authorities' fierce condemnation.

Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
General Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Major General

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Russian policymakers will await new US president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military ◽  
Offensive Strategies

Subject Russian foreign policy in 2016. Significance Russian foreign policy is driven by an amalgam of realpolitik, nationalism and anti-Western ideology, and consists of both defensive and offensive strategies. The robust, confrontational approach championed by President Vladimir Putin in recent years has produced successes in such areas as the military campaign in Syria, but an undecided outcome in Ukraine and mixed results in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Impacts A NATO summit this July may result in a tougher, more coordinated stance on Russia. Following its official partial withdrawal from Syria, the Russian military will conduct selective attacks. Russia will need careful diplomacy to keep Belarus and Kazakhstan from drifting away as allies.

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