Essebsi’s death leaves Tunisia elections in limbo

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
The Face ◽  
Electoral Law

Significance As prime minister and later president, Essebsi played an important role in the early stages of Tunisia’s peaceful transition to democracy, but failed to deliver any real programme to transform the country’s ailing economy. He leaves behind a country which has shown resilience in the face of many domestic and regional challenges, but in which political infighting and a lack of economic progress means trust in the political class is low. Essebsi’s death so close to an election he had promised not to contest means the Tunisian state was already prepared for a transition. Impacts Signing the electoral law will open the political class up to criticism that it is self-serving. Not signing the law could see a candidate under investigation for money-laundering win the presidency. Essebsi's Nidaa Tounes party has largely collapsed thanks to infighting, and is unlikely to do well in the parliamentary elections.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Congo leader's Katanga rift adds to political tensions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Law ◽  
Electoral Law

Significance The protests are against an amendment to the electoral law, which was passed on January 17 and requires that a new census be carried out before presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2016 can take place. The law formally opens up the possibility that there will be delay to elections which should mark the end of President Joseph Kabila's constitutional tenure. Earlier this month, the issue sparked a rupture between Kabila and Moise Katumbi, the popular governor of the mineral-rich Katanga province. After making implicit references against the president staying on, Katumbi was expelled from his post as provincial head of Kabila's party. Impacts Regional reaction to obeying term limits will be key; Angola's head of state visit to Congo went ahead yesterday, despite planned protests. However, in the face of domestic challenges, Kabila can no longer expect an Angolan security guarantee. Angola's cancellation of the January summit on eastern DRC is testament to its reticent approach on military intervention in Congo.

Thai junta risks fracture as royal transition nears

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Tactics ◽  
Power Base ◽  
The Face ◽  
Security Alliance

Subject The junta's political priorities. Significance The annual October 1 military reshuffle and promotions strengthened Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha's power base. The junta is attempting to expand and consolidate its rule in the face of two approaching transitions: fresh parliamentary elections that have been promised in late 2017 and a royal transition. Expectations of the latter are rising as the palace releases increasingly pessimistic reports on the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Impacts A counter-coup against the Prayuth administration is unlikely and would probably fail. A royal transition would unsettle markets, albeit temporarily; the baht would fall, but quickly recover. Beijing will continue to accommodate Bangkok's political tactics, while Washington will maintain its security alliance with Thailand.

Political, economic risks rise as Pakistan polls near

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Blunt Tool ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook for 2016. Significance The political turmoil of 2014 subsided over the course of last year, creating confidence in the ability of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's administration to complete its full five-year term to mid-2018. The economy has also regained stability after the slump in 2008-13. This year Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) begins preparations for the 2018 parliamentary elections. Impacts Divestment has proved a blunt tool for public sector reform; future divestments, if they proceed at all, will be no different. Inflation will be under control so long as the oil slump continues, boosting purchasing power. Islamabad will be largely muted on Afghanistan and India ties.

Thai junta extends rule to 2017 as policy risks rise

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Council ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Machine ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Military

Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already postponed elections three times, from 2015 to early 2016 and, most recently, to late 2016, with a new administration to be inaugurated in early 2017. A potential further delay would signal the junta's weakness in the face of mounting policy challenges. Impacts Suthep's reappearance could jeopardise the political stability the junta has maintained since May 2014. The NCPO will continue to suppress the political machine of deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Government forecast of 3% growth this year may prove optimistic. Post-elections, China and the West are likely to be given at least equal diplomatic attention.

Moldovan political turmoil will boost pro-Russia camp

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Large Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Eastern Partnership ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
The Eu

Subject The rift between the political elite and the electorate. Significance The crisis of late 2014, in which politicians were accused of complicity in a large bank fraud, continues to create political turbulence in Moldova. The arrest of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat in October led to further crisis in which one ruling coalition was replaced by another as street protests by an alliance of pro-Russian and pro-European forces continued. The approval of Pavel Filip as prime minister in January did nothing to strengthen the government's credibility in the eyes of an angry electorate. Impacts Snap parliamentary elections would significantly strengthen Russia's position, as pro-Moscow parties would gain ground. The EU will become cautious about financial aid for Eastern Partnership members and will demand evidence of transparency. The Romanian political establishment will lose its enthusiasm for unification with a dysfunctional Moldova.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

Kazakh election raises questions about leadership

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Face ◽  
Territorial Rights

Significance The governing Nur Otan party won most seats and two tame allies were awarded a few. The importance of this election is that it offers pointers to how much power President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wields. None of his promises of political liberalisation has been realised and it is unclear how serious he is about change. Impacts Askar Mamin's reappointment as prime minister points to general continuity -- or stasis. Tokayev will defend Kazakh nationhood in the face of Russian politicians casting doubt on its territorial rights. Trends as regards civil liberties and freedom of expression are retrograde in both the real and virtual spheres. The OPEC+ bloc's special deal allowing Kazakh oil output to rise by 10,000 barrels per day in February-March offers some economic relief.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

New Tanzania leader may face resistance to reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economic Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Face ◽  
Low Cost Carrier

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.

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