Ending Seoul’s missile cap has regional implications

Significance Seoul now has full ‘missile sovereignty’. Impacts North Korea is yet to react, but may do so with a missile launch. Seoul already has all of North Korea within range and no limits on missile payload; longer-range missiles would be for targets elsewhere. Seoul’s plans to build an aircraft carrier also indicate 'middle-power' ambitions to be able to project force well beyond the peninsula. After the end of the US-Russian ban on intermediate-range missiles, Moscow will be unhappy if a near neighbour and US ally develops them. Greater capabilities will make Seoul a more useful ally for Washington against Beijing, which may come to see Seoul as an increasing threat.

Significance Taiwan-US relations got a symbolic boost when the US government opened a new 250-million-dollar institute to house the de facto embassy in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, on June 12. President Tsai Ing-wen, and a US delegation that included representatives from Congress and the State Department, attended the opening ceremony. It may have received greater attention and perhaps higher-ranking US representation had the first US-North Korea summit not been scheduled for the same day. Impacts Taiwan's president will be constrained from improving China ties by anti-China sentiment at home. More businesses could come under Chinese pressure as cross-Strait relations deteriorate further. Taiwan-US military cooperation will prompt more aggressive Chinese efforts to diminish Taiwan's standing and increase military intimidation.


Significance The standoff with North Korea has led the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on the president’s authority to order a nuclear first strike. This is the first such formal examination of the executive branch’s nuclear prerogatives and procedures by Congress since 1976. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration is planning on upgrades to the US arsenal to boost Washington’s ability to wage a nuclear war and has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with North Korea in its public remarks. Impacts The probable US deployment of new tactical nuclear weapons will not carry over to delegating attack authority to commanders in a crisis. Chinese and Russian anti-access/area-denial systems may trigger more US reliance on nuclear deterrence in the Baltics and North-east Asia. Improved weapons technology convincing policymakers that first strikes are prudent pose greater risks than unbalanced political leadership.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 977-993
Author(s):  
Zaid Aladwan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the application of the fraud exception rule and try to analyze the different approaches in regard to the implication of fraud rule in letters of credit. Further, this paper tries to explore if there is an obstacle when applying such exception rule in common law and whether there is an overlap with interpreting the said rule. The same fact appears in civil law courts as well. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a comparative study which uses analytical approach and critical legal thinking. Findings The scope of the fraud defence, the US legal systems demonstrate that the scope of the fraud rule is extended and covers both fraud in documents and fraud in the underlying contract, while in contrast, in UK the rule’s scope is restricted to fraud in documents only. Such an approach is reasonable, as it is justified by applying the Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits (UCP) rules strictly. That is to say, English courts apply the rules literally, even if it does not lead to fair judgements, while in contrast, American courts seek to enforce justice even if it goes beyond the rules. In any case, restricting the fraud exception to fraud in the documents is the proper approach. The reason for such restriction, on the one hand, is to maintain the integrity of letters of credit and, on the other hand, to affirm the autonomy principle. Originality/value Extending the scope of the fraud defence will require banks to go beyond the documents, which is not logical. Banks are neither expert in such transactions nor required to do so. Most importantly, banks are concerned with documents only; it is for the court to go beyond the documents. Although this approach could be criticized, it is important to ensure that the validity of the documentary credit instrument is not compromised. As established by academics, any argument need not engage the bank unless it is in respect of the presented documents. In short, “pay now, argue later” is paramount to distinguish parties’ litigations from banks vs parties’ litigations. In any case, it can be suggested that extending the fraud rule exception to include fraud in the underlying contract from Jordan perspective is not the proper one because it is necessary to maintain the integrity of letters of credit and to affirm the autonomy principle.


Significance Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam, both of which figure heavily in US security policy in the region. In Singapore, she weathered criticism of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In Hanoi, she proposed talks about a strategic partnership, which would mean a significant upgrade to relations with Vietnam. Impacts The Afghanistan withdrawal will make alliances and US reliability central issues in upcoming elections in Japan and South Korea. Japan will strengthen its emerging security cooperation with India, shoring up its defence in the west of the Indo-Pacific region. To test US commitment to the region after the Afghanistan withdrawal, China and North Korea will be increasingly provocative.


Significance Fake news is not a new phenomenon, but it has burgeoned since the emergence of social media. The issue has taken centre stage since 2016 because of reports that Russia interfered in the US presidential election through fake news and disinformation campaigns, and concern that it will do so in Europe’s upcoming elections. Impacts Public pressure to respond to fake news is likely to continue amid forthcoming European elections. Regulation may turn to the economics of online advertising to stifle fake news that aims to attract online traffic. Greater attention to the structure of online advertising could shed light on perverse incentives that encourage fake news.


Significance Seoul anticipates a North Korean delegation of 400-500 people, including not only athletes but also reporters, observers and officials. Impacts Pyongyang's Olympic olive branch is a major tactical change, but it is premature to see it as a strategic shift. Military talks will address the cross-border security implications of Pyongyang joining the Games, but probably not broader issues. South Korea's president will try to extend the Olympic thaw into other spheres, but wider engagement will prove tricky. The US president is supportive, claiming credit for the breakthrough, but Washington may see further South Korean concessions as excessive.


Subject Inflation targeting. Significance The effectiveness of the ultra-loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the ECB is increasingly being questioned. Over the last ten years, despite very low and even negative policy rates in Japan and the euro-area, consumer price inflation has run well below 2%, the benchmark for the three central banks’ price stability objective. There are calls for central banks to shift from a strict 2% target, but the three central banks are wary to do so. Impacts The Fed will release the results of its policy review in the first half of 2020, but has no intention of moving from its 2% price target. The ECB president intends to hold a similar review, but the national bank governors do not support changing the inflation target. The adoption of a target range around 2% would give central banks maximum flexibility to adapt to a changing inflationary environment. Medium-to-longer-term discussions will consider monetary options beyond price targeting.


Subject China's aircraft carriers. Significance The commissioning into service last month of China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, was a milestone in the development of Beijing’s naval potential. It brings a step closer the ability of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to deploy a credible operational carrier capability and in particular to deploy with greater confidence and freedom of action at range in regions remote from China to project Beijing’s power and influence. Impacts Beijing potentially could deploy perhaps six carriers by the 2030s, compared with the US Navy’s current eleven fleet carriers. Beijing’s carriers would have only a limited, supporting, distracting role at most in a direct confrontation with the United States. Their main purpose will be to impress and intimidate other countries and project China’s power. Other major military powers will adjust their own aircraft carrier plans in response to China’s.


Significance The resolution was a Democratic attempt at damage control after comments by a newly elected caucus member that were perceived as anti-Semitic: the party fears being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ before 2020’s elections. This resolution is the latest move in a brewing congressional battle over the Boycott-Divest-Sanction movement, which brings together several US anti-Israel groups. The rallying cry for this issue is the proposed Israel Anti-Boycott Act, which has 292 co-sponsors in the House and 58 in the Senate. Impacts The White House will resist congressional efforts to limit the president’s foreign policy powers. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be agreed but could be delayed for final changes. Congress will seek a greater role on US North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran policy. US-Russia policy will be a sticking point between the Democrats and Trump White House.


2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belay Seyoum

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the effects of several determinants of firm import intensity in US foreign trade zones (FTZs). Even though the major objective for the establishment of US FTZs is to encourage exports by facilitating the duty-free entry of imports, US firms have used it as a gateway to import goods into the US market. Currently, over 90 per cent of US FTZ output is consumed in the USA. The author examines the major determinants for such import intensity in US FTZs. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on a survey that was conducted to explore the factors that influence import intensity of firms operating in US FTZs. Findings The findings reveal that besides export orientation of firms, the most promising predictors of import intensity of firms operating in USA FTZs are the policy environment in the form of inverted tariff benefits and firm business strategy. Practical implications The findings are important for managers presently operating in US FTZs or intend to do so in future. Originality/value Even though there are numerous studies on free trade zones and exports, this is the first study to examine the import intensity of US FTZs and their determinants.


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