Armed groups will keep dominating southern Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Groups ◽  
Desert Area ◽  
Content Type

Significance As a result, illicit economies have provided livelihoods to locals for years, fuelling ethnic and tribal competition. Τhe inability of Libyan authorities to project power in the Fezzan and the jostling for influence has allowed mercenaries and other armed groups to become established in the region, stationing themselves in the desert area, and threatening its security. Impacts Political developments in Chad could trigger clashes in southern Libya. The LNA could position itself as a security guarantor against a resurgent IS. Smuggling will remain a key source of revenue in the Fezzan.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

Colombian border violence will Venezuela worsen crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Organised Crime Groups

Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.

Foreign powers jockey for position in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Industry ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type

Significance The outcomes of these meetings may indicate the dynamics of external states' future behaviour, which will shape domestic developments until elections are held on December 24. Impacts Turkish investment in Libya will increase, strengthening Ankara’s foothold. Greece and Egypt will be most affected by Turkish dominance in Libya and both will seek to undermine any status quo that supports it. The new government will rely on oil money to secure support from the various armed groups and constituencies. Investment in the oil industry will rise as government provides support to repair and upgrade infrastructure and increase output.

Relative prosperity will prolong Libya's civil war

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
The Other ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Dominance

Significance His comments are optimistic. The other two rival administrations that are based in Libya have resisted efforts to form a unified government, while armed groups (some associated with the administrations, others independent) compete for local dominance. As a result, intermittent escalations in fighting and sporadic attacks by fringe militias continue to occur in parts of the country. Concern has grown about the impact on civilians. Impacts Bombings and outbreaks of intense fighting will remain a risk in key contested locations in the north. Clashes between militias will recur sporadically in the south. The number of migrants working in Libya and seeking to travel to Europe may increase again.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

State neglect fosters global illicitly-governed spaces

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Basic Goods ◽  
Economic Aid

Subject The effect of illicitly-governed spaces Significance Spaces where armed groups are equally, or more present than the state often tend to go unnoticed unless they garner media attention with high-profile violence. There, such groups exert authority over local populations and engage in illegal business activities. These operations allow them to accumulate power and resources potentially to stage attacks elsewhere. Targeting these spaces and restoring legitimate governance are necessary to deprive armed groups of social support and end illegal businesses. Impacts Providing basic goods and services would help authorities regain legitimacy in illicitly-governed regions. However, cracking down on illicit activities, such as smuggling, could deprive some communities of their only source of income. Economic aid and development would, therefore, need to accompany any such clampdowns.

Islamist threat to spread to new areas in West Africa

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Airport Security ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Past

Subject Outlook for Islamist militancy in West Africa. Significance Over the past four months Islamist armed groups have carried out high-profile attacks in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. Such incidents are not new in the Sahel, but the methods and scale have changed. To some extent this mirrors changes seen in Nigeria, Kenya, the Middle East and Europe, where attackers explicitly target civilians in a bid to attract media attention. Impacts The risk of further attacks is unlikely to shift positive investor sentiment towards Ivory Coast, which is driven by strong GDP growth. Airport security will likely come under fresh scrutiny given recent bombings and hijackings in Somalia and Egypt respectively. Cameroon is vulnerable to further attacks given its involvement in the regional anti-Boko Haram force.

Colombia court ruling will help extractives sector

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Veto Power ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Court Ruling ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gold Mines ◽  
Local Municipalities ◽  
Alternative Means

Subject Mining referenda. Significance The Constitutional Court on October 11 ruled that popular consultations held by local municipalities or regions do not have veto power. This ruling is important as a series of popular consultations since 2016 have voted to suspend or cancel extractives projects, concerning both current and potential investors. The new ruling should provide greater stability for such projects but is likely to spark renewed frustration in the most affected regions. Impacts The ruling may encourage more companies to invest in the extractives sector, with positive implications for economic activity. Social unrest around extractives projects may increase with the removal of an electoral outlet for popular opposition. Environmental activism may increase with mining opponents using environmental concerns as an alternative means of halting projects. Non-state armed groups will present a continuing threat of violence and extortion for mining firms, particularly those with gold mines.

Congo insecurity may grow as public order unravels

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Order ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Productive Activities ◽  
Political Protests ◽  
Eastern Congo ◽  
Electoral Calendar

Subject Insecurity in eastern Congo Significance Generalised insecurity has gripped eastern Congo in early 2018. While no single event or specific dynamic has driven this destabilisation, a series of different trends suggest a deeper pattern of deterioration. Against the backdrop of increasing countrywide political protests in urban centres, the deteriorating security situation has had an impact not only on rural hotspots but also on larger cities once considered stable. Impacts New security problems may cause further delays in the electoral calendar. Deteriorating security may drive a further expansion and fragmentation of eastern Congo's armed groups. Local economies will face increasing strains, with currency instability, displacement and insecurity impacting on productive activities. Already overstretched neighbouring countries may struggle to absorb significant new refugee flows.

Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China And India ◽  
National League

Significance The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar. China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace. Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.

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