Deep Argentine recession leaves few reform options

10.1108/oxan-db201458 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Household Consumption ◽

Fiscal Policies ◽

Content Type ◽

High Inflation ◽

Industrial Performance ◽

Investment Grade ◽

Financial Transactions ◽

Key Industries ◽

The Impact ◽

Significance Poor industrial performance adds to a long list of woes for an economy facing a deep recession, with increasing unemployment, high inflation and the risk of losing its hard-won investment grade rating. The combination of political and fiscal crises, together with the impact of a major corruption scandal engulfing key industries, has sapped confidence and deprived the economy of much-needed investment. Household consumption, which accounts for some 63% of GDP, has been affected by growing unemployment and high indebtedness levels. Impacts Government moves to increase the tax burden are on the cards. A return of the financial transactions tax (CPMF) is likely. An increasingly isolated government could seek to revert to expansionary fiscal policies.

Brazil impeachment battle will do short-term damage

10.1108/oxan-db207137 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Financial Markets ◽

First Year ◽

Real Economy ◽

Short Term ◽

Content Type ◽

The Real ◽

The Government ◽

Legal Grounds ◽

Deep Recession ◽

Foregone Conclusion

Significance This comes near the end of a tremendously challenging first year of Rousseff's second term, marked by collapsing popularity, mass protests and deep recession. However, impeachment is far from a foregone conclusion. The legal grounds are unclear and the government seems more likely than not to have enough congressional support to stave off the process. Indeed, the timing could increase the odds that Rousseff will complete her term. Impacts Financial markets will be especially volatile in the coming months. At best, a recovery in the real economy will not start before late 2016 or even 2017. Nevertheless, impeachment turbulence could gradually lead to more stable politics.

US output will negate most of extended OPEC cuts

10.1108/oxan-db221222 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Gulf Coast ◽

Fiscal Stress ◽

State Governments ◽

Potential Threat ◽

Content Type ◽

The Past ◽

The Us ◽

Oil Exports ◽

Deep Recession ◽

Dependent State

Significance The US shale oil industry has mounted a comeback over the past six months. After a deep recession brought on by plunging oil prices starting in mid-2014, the sector is growing again as prices have stabilised and US oil output is rising, approaching record levels once again. OPEC’s May 26 meeting was a potential threat to that recovery, but the cartel’s decision to hold the line on its regime of production cuts ensures continued growth for US oil. Impacts US oil exports will rise this year on higher output from the Permian oilfield, which is well connected to Gulf Coast export facilities. An uptick in drilling will contribute to the overall tightening of the US labour market, pushing up wages and oilfield services costs. Restored royalty flows will ease some fiscal stress on oil-dependent state governments such as Alaska and North Dakota.

Pandemic fallout to drive deep recession in Belize

10.1108/oxan-db253634 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Energy Production ◽

Technical Assistance ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Development Bank ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Content Type ◽

Hurricane Season ◽

Significance Quarantine measures coupled with prolonged dry weather conditions, which have affected energy production and agriculture, have taken a substantial toll on growth already this year. Production was down across all sectors of the economy in the first quarter. Impacts Any perceived failings in the government's response to the health crisis could harm it ahead of November's elections. Foreign exchange reserves have diminished in recent years but are expected to fall sharply in 2020. InterAmerican Development Bank efforts to revitalise tourism through loans and technical assistance may benefit Belize. Moderate commodity prices will keep inflation in check through year-end, in turn supporting private consumption. A predicted stronger-than-usual hurricane season raises risks of further economic damage.

Continued unrest will hit Nicaragua’s financial system

10.1108/oxan-db246640 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Financial System ◽

Political Crisis ◽

Political Repression ◽

Content Type ◽

Business Confidence ◽

Low Income Families ◽

Asset Quality ◽

Loan Growth ◽

Significance The political crisis that began in Nicaragua last year has sent the economy into a deep recession. A collapse in consumer and business confidence has significantly reduced demand for loans and banks have become much more cautious, shifting their focus from loan growth to preserving adequate liquidity and asset quality. Impacts The shrinking financial system will negatively impact Nicaragua’s already low levels of financial inclusion. Layoffs at financial institutions will compound the increased unemployment that the recession is producing. Remittances are likely to become more important for many low-income families. Continued political repression could see opposition strategies become more militant, weighing further on the country's economic prospects.

Brazil's banks boost profits despite fall in lending

10.1108/oxan-db208276 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Bank Lending ◽

Foreign Banks ◽

Loan Loss ◽

Current Crisis ◽

Content Type ◽

Loan Demand ◽

Positive Elements ◽

Significance Brazil's deep recession is not reflected in the healthy results announced by its major banks, which represent one of the few positive elements of a beleaguered economy. Good levels of capital, liquidity and loan loss reserves as well as strong earnings capacity and savvy risk management should ensure that Brazil's largest lenders remain financially healthy throughout the current crisis. Impacts Bank lending will become a less important engine of growth, with weak loan demand hindering recovery. A likely rise in non-performing loans this year will probably be modest. Foreign banks entering the market may find the acquisition of smaller entities a better bet than seeking a banking licence.

Ecuador's banks face severe test in 2016-17

10.1108/oxan-db211242 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Banking Sector ◽

Business Activity ◽

Financial Health ◽

Content Type ◽

Credit Access ◽

Private Banks ◽

Bad Loans ◽

Will Force ◽

Loan Growth ◽

Subject Outlook for the banking sector. Significance President Rafael Correa has said that the April 16 earthquake is estimated to cost Ecuador some 3 billion dollars, or 3% of GDP. The tremors struck at a time when the economy is moving into deep recession and the banking sector is struggling with falling business activity and profitability, as well as rising bad loans. Impacts The recent earthquake could push Ecuador into a deeper recession than initially expected. Recession and higher unemployment will force private banks to focus on financial health instead of loan growth and profitability. Banks' conservative lending stance could, in turn, prolong the recession by limiting credit access.

COVID-19 will shatter Tunisian economic revival hopes

10.1108/oxan-db251994 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Supply Chain ◽

Global Economy ◽

Informal Employment ◽

Healthcare Provision ◽

Export Markets ◽

Content Type ◽

Weak Growth ◽

Deep Recession ◽

Eu Support

Subject Economic impacts of COVID-19 on Tunisia. Significance With nearly half the world’s population currently in some form of lockdown, the global economy is braced for a deep recession. This is likely to deal a disastrous blow to the plans of the newly installed government to turn a page on a decade of weak growth and high unemployment. Impacts Manufacturing will be squeezed by supply chain issues and lower demand in export markets. IMF and EU support will relieve any immediate pressure on import cover and healthcare provision. Informal employment may grow and remain higher over the medium to long term.

COVID-19 impacts will cut Latin American remittances

10.1108/oxan-db253192 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Crisis ◽

Latin American ◽

South American ◽

Content Type ◽

Digital Channels ◽

Significance The contraction, after several years of robust growth, will stem from a deep recession and measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Impacts Rising unemployment in South American countries hosting Venezuelan migrants, and the return of many to Venezuela, will cut remittances. Efforts to educate migrants on using digital channels to send money home are likely to increase. Hostile attitudes towards immigrants in LAC will rise as a result of the economic crisis.

Inadequate policies will deepen Mexico COVID-19 blow

10.1108/oxan-db251715 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Insurance ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Content Type ◽

Approval Ratings ◽

Major Threat ◽

Policy Responses ◽

High Death ◽

The Impact ◽

Significance A lack of testing may have led to an underestimation of infections, but with a population of 130 million, Mexico appears relatively unscathed by the pandemic so far. The virus nevertheless presents a major threat, exacerbated by the government’s reluctance to implement the drastic mitigation measures seen in other countries. Mexico is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity to the heavily affected United States and its economic reliance on oil and North American trade. Impacts Widespread informal working and a lack of unemployment insurance will amplify the impact of COVID-19 on the welfare of Mexico’s poorest. AMLO’s slow response may cause rifts with Washington, particularly if US President Donald Trump seeks electoral gains by attacking Mexico. A high death toll or deep recession could destroy AMLO’s public approval ratings if his policy responses are perceived as inadequate.