Policy making for global food security in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-534
Author(s):  
Amir M. Sharif ◽  
Zahir Irani
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
External Forces ◽  
First Time

Purpose This paper aims to explain the uncertainties associated with food security and, in doing so, classifies them within the context of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). In using this lens to frame the challenges of food security, the viewpoint proffers the need to be even more sensitive to heightened levels of uncertainty and highlights the need of governments to be prepared to meet a wider variety of external forces, risks, opportunities and threats to mitigate food insecurity. Design/methodology/approach This research constructs a novel morphology of food security and food waste policy futures based upon a range of scenario types based on contextual narratives relating to constraint, collapse, growth and transformation. In doing so, offering a representation that suggests order, complexity and chaos occur across a range of four domains of interaction: known (repeatable cause and effect); knowable (cause and effect separated over time); complex (cause and effect are unique and non-repeatable); and chaos (no cause and effect relationship perceivable). This orientation is represented in the form of a novel morphology that can be used to support decision-making and policymaking/consideration. Findings The authors have presented and identified a combination of a structured and unstructured methods to develop and hence classify a range of food security scenarios. Using the VUCA worldview and classification, the authors subsequently identify seven underlying and seven United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)-derived factors, which when combined with the Institute for the Future (IFTF) four food security scenarios in a pairwise manner led to the generation of a further 16 subsequent VUCA-inspired scenarios composed within a morphological grid. These were subsequently reclassified against three sets of stakeholders and then finally mapped to the Cynefin framework as a set of ten scenarios to show the potential of making greater sense of the VUCA nature of food security. Practical implications The paper proposes a novel conceptual approach to framing and understanding the wider holistic aspects of explaining and providing foresight to the complexities of food security. Hence, this paper provides policymakers with two contrasting, yet complementary, food security scenario planning techniques (VUCA and Cynefin), which envelope 16 narrative food security scenarios which can be used with stakeholders and advocacy groups in facilitating discussion about complex, messy and “wicked” interlinkages within the food security domain. Originality/value This is the first time in the extant literature that a combination of structured and unstructured, problem-based versus mess-based, contrasting perspectives have been brought together and developed, with the intention of creating a normative family or portfolio of narrative-driven food security scenarios. The authors present and extend four existing scenarios from the extant food security literature, and subsequently, through interpreting these scenarios via a dual and combined lens (notably using UN SDG and VUCA elements), a grid of alternative food security scenarios is produced. By then using applying the Cynefin complexity framework to these new configurations, a thematic categorisation of alternative futures is presented, which may aid policy and decision-makers when considering this topic.

Gender equality will see uneven progress in Mexico

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equality ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
National Development ◽  
State Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government ◽  
Employment Of Women ◽  
First Time

Subject The Mexican government's advances towards greater gender equality. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto has been active in promoting gender equality at home and abroad, and his government has repeatedly voiced its commitment to the UN's Millennium Development Goals, particularly regarding female empowerment. The Pena Nieto administration included a gender dimension in its National Development Plan for the first time, and has allocated significant resources to supporting women. Efforts have focused not only on the federal level, but also at state level, as illustrated by the signing of a collaboration agreement in December 2015 between the government and the National Conference of Governors. Impacts Bridging the gender gap across all government levels will be an expensive and difficult task, with uneven success across the country. Any reductions in domestic violence rates will require long-term efforts to change attitudes from the bottom up. Quotas that encourage the employment of women, regardless of merit, may perpetuate politics' reputation for being corrupt and nepotistic.

Inconsistency of uncountable infinite sets under ZFC framework

Kybernetes ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 37 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 453-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wujia Zhu ◽  
Yi Lin ◽  
Guoping Du ◽  
Ningsheng Gong
Keyword(s):  
Natural Number ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Natural Numbers ◽  
Real Numbers ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infinite Sets ◽  
Axiomatic Set Theory ◽  
First Time

PurposeThe purpose is to show that all uncountable infinite sets are self‐contradictory non‐sets.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual approach is taken in the paper.FindingsGiven the fact that the set N={x|n(x)} of all natural numbers, where n(x)=df “x is a natural number” is a self‐contradicting non‐set in this paper, the authors prove that in the framework of modern axiomatic set theory ZFC, various uncountable infinite sets are either non‐existent or self‐contradicting non‐sets. Therefore, it can be astonishingly concluded that in both the naive set theory or the modern axiomatic set theory, if any of the actual infinite sets exists, it must be a self‐contradicting non‐set.Originality/valueThe first time in history, it is shown that such convenient notion as the set of all real numbers needs to be reconsidered.

China's grain reforms will affect global agriculture

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Agricultural Subsidies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Global Agriculture ◽  
Price Reform ◽  
Government Data ◽  
First Time ◽  
Oriented Approach

Subject Grain pricing reform in China. Significance China's grain output fell for the first time in 13 years, government data showed on December 8, following the announcement in April of the abolition of price floors. China has committed to a more market-oriented approach to agricultural pricing, and is redefining its understanding of food security. Impacts Price reform of rice and wheat will be slowest, given perceived higher social costs. China will align agricultural subsidies better with WTO rules, favouring subsidies for environmentally friendly products. China will seek greater international cooperation on agriculture as it moves away from self-sufficiency.

The crimes of first-time offenders: same or different from the crimes of habitual criminals?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Glenn D. Walters
Keyword(s):  
Age Of Onset ◽  
Deterrent Effect ◽  
Common Denominator ◽  
Criminal Thinking ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Environmental Events ◽  
First Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how first-time offenders and habitual criminals, while displaying wide differences in offense frequency, appear to follow a similar pattern in committing crime. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual approach is adopted in this paper. Findings It is argued that criminal thinking is the common denominator in both patterns, the difference being that habitual criminals have a higher resting level of proactive and reactive criminal thinking than first-time offenders. With an earlier age of onset, the habitual criminal may be more impulsive and reactive than first-time offenders, which partially explains why most low-rate offenders are not identified until adulthood. Practical implications Because actual and perceived deterrents to crime correlate weakly, if at all, it is recommended that perceived environmental events and criminal thinking be the primary targets of prevention and intervention programs. Social implications Environmental stimuli, such as events that produce general strain, increase opportunities for crime, reinforce criminal associations, irritate the individual and interfere with the deterrent effect of perceived certainty, can both augment and interact with criminal thinking to increase the likelihood of a criminal act in both first-time offenders and habitual criminals. Originality/value The unique aspect of this paper is that it illustrates that certain features of crime and criminality are found across offending levels, whereas other features are more specific to a particular level.

Balancing food security and AMR

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Animal Production ◽  
Growth Promoter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
Food Animal ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Research And Policy

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on economics literature on antimicrobial and alternative uses in food animal production on its current state, its drivers, impacts and policy, and provides a general picture of the research for this special agricultural input and future directions for the research and policy. Design/methodology/approach Reduction of antimicrobial uses in food animal production is relevant to both preventing antimicrobial resistance and ensuring global food security. This study focuses on reviewing antimicrobial impact on global food security, particularly in farm production by documenting the main drivers, functions and alternatives of antimicrobial animal uses, comparing different approaches used in evaluating its production effects and providing recommendations for future research and policy development. Findings Three main approaches, controlled animal experiments, comparisons between with and without using antimicrobials at the farm level and comparisons before and after antimicrobial ban as growth promoter, have been used in measuring food security effects of antimicrobial uses in food animal production. They are, however, answering different questions with different measuring conditions. The positive production impact of antimicrobial use is often associated to its functions as a growth promoter and in preventing and treating diseases. In this review the author question the technical legitimacy for antimicrobials as a growth promoter and argue that antimicrobials should be treated as a special class of conditional and supportive input in farm production instead of using it as a normal input in its impact evaluation. Research limitations/implications An approach of combining damage control function and disease epidemiological model instead of a simplified production function should be used in its impact evaluation including in evaluating those used as antimicrobial growth promoters. Practical implications In reducing antimicrobial uses in animal production, apart from more active adoption of the alternatives, we call for a better understanding for the decision makings of antimicrobial use in the production process including government-veterinarian-farm links. Originality/value This study examines the main issues in current economic research in antimicrobial food animal production, clarifies ambiguities in antimicrobial production functions and in different approaches used in impact evaluation, provides a roadmap for reduction of antimicrobial uses and a new approach for the policy evaluation.

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Alizadeh ◽  
Leili Soltanisehat
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Design And Manufacturing ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

scholarly journals Global food security: assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 551-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albino Maggio ◽  
Tine Van Criekinge ◽  
Jean-Paul Malingreau
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Adequate Food ◽  
Eu Policies

Purpose A foresight process was put in place to examine potential developments that can affect the world food situation in 2030 to identify the most useful areas for European Union (EU) policy intervention. Design/methodology/approach Four interactive workshops involving over 100 experts were organised. The structure of the foresight was designed based on the following five objectives: envision the future of food systems, agree on the most crucial drivers of change affecting food security, reach a consensus on a likely vision for 2030, challenge this vision and analyse current policies and policy needs in terms of responsiveness and resilience to food security future challenges. Findings The study contains four key messages accompanied by several related policy recommendations for the immediate and medium term to enable the EU to contribute to achieving food security by 2030. These refer to the transformation of agriculture production systems, the enabling environment, trends in production and consumption and demand-driven food systems as important determinants of sustainable food security. The study recommends a stronger coherence and coordination between different EU policies impacting food security. The development of urban areas is an overlooked challenge for food security as well as the contribution of trade and demand-side dynamics. Originality/value This is one of the very few attempts to look at food security with a system approach. A new paradigm shift is proposed: securing “regular” access to adequate food for the majority of the 8-9 billion people who will live on earth in the period 2030-2050, while addressing the food insecurity of a fraction of that total, is how a future European food security policy should be approached.

The future of governance in Iran

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Asghar Pourezzat ◽  
Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam ◽  
Maryam Sani Ejlal ◽  
Ghazaleh Taheriattar
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interdisciplinary Field ◽  
International Trends ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Purpose Through an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the rise and fall of Iranian governments and introduce alternative futures in a range of possible, plausible and preferable forms of future governance. To carry out a foresight study of alternative futures of Iranian governance, the authors used futures studies, based on the detection of the most critical driving forces, which are also the most important uncertainties. Futures studies as an interdisciplinary field of study help to identify the events and trends that affect political change and offer scenarios of four alternative futures for the governance of Iran: Smart and Stable Government, Authoritarian Development-oriented Government, Irrational Government and Irrational Breakable Government. The authors believe that Iran’s endeavors to promote democracy, taking the changing international trends into account, make a more trustworthy future for Iran both possible plausible. Design/methodology/approach Based on macro-history approach and by using “shared history”, future triangle and then scenario planning, the future of Governance in Iran has been analyzed. Findings Whenever the government has distanced itself from the public and has neglected the trend of international change, it has been faced with a period of collapse and annihilation. And whenever these two important factors are understood, the result is a trend of development and growth. Therefore, the most favored image of Iran’s future relies on the maintenance and promotion of public participation and on increasing attention to the sustainable realities of international relations. Originality/value The complexities of events and trends affecting the rise and fall of previous governments of Iran make it necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the events that have emerged or are emerging in its governance. In this study, from futures studies point of view, transformation of governance has been studied.

Disciplined Vision Casting: A Method for Exploring Possible Futures in the Era of the UN Sustainable Development Goals

2021 ◽  
pp. 183933492110371
Author(s):  
Edward Ramirez ◽  
Saeed Tajdini
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Theory Development ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives

This conceptual essay introduces Disciplined Vision Casting (DVC) as a new method for exploring alternative futures. Drawing on scenario planning, introspection, and creative writing, DVC casts a set of future scenarios, based on a combination of guiding uncertainties found in the literature. Marketing scholars stand to benefit from leveraging DVC as it provides them with a laboratory for exploring undiscovered contexts and circumstances that may challenge widely held beliefs. DVC allows the researcher to cross the interdisciplinary barriers to study the confluence of a variety of technological and economic forces on society. As such, this novel method of projecting into the future offers the researchers a stimulus for theory development and a low-cost and readily implementable method of foreseeing potential future events, thus assisting them as they reimagine the discipline in the era of UN Sustainable Development Goals and other global sustainability initiatives.

scholarly journals Strong fluid–solid interactions with segregated CFD solvers

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2237-2252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Olivier ◽  
Olivier Paré-Lambert
Keyword(s):  
Turbulence Modeling ◽  
Rigid Bodies ◽  
Body Motion ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flow Solver ◽  
Broyden Method ◽  
Segregated Flow ◽  
External Forces ◽  
First Time

Purpose This paper aims to present a fluid-structure coupling partitioned scheme involving rigid bodies supported by spring-damper systems. This scheme can be used with already existing fluid flow solvers without the need to modify them. Design/methodology/approach The scheme is based on a modified Broyden method. It solves the equations of solid body motion in which the external forces coming from the flow are provided by a segregated flow solver used as a black box. The whole scheme is implicit. Findings The proposed partitioned method is stable even in the ultimate case of very strong fluid–solid interactions involving a massless cylinder oscillating with no structural damping. The overhead associated with the coupling scheme represents an execution time increase by a factor of about 2 to 5, depending on the context. The scheme also has the advantage of being able to incorporate turbulence modeling directly through the flow solver. It has been tested successfully with URANS simulations without wall law, thus involving thin high aspect-ratio cells near the wall. Originality/value Such problems are known to be very difficult to solve and previous studies usually rely on monolithic approaches. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time a partitioned scheme is used to solve fluid–solid interactions involving massless components.

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