Cloud Cover Profile using Cloud Detection Algorithms towards Energy Forecasting in Photovoltaic (PV) Systems

Author(s):  
Mira Shahirah Mustaza ◽  
Mohd Fuad Abdul Latip ◽  
Norliza Zaini ◽  
Arnis Asmat ◽  
Haryanti Norhazman
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Hagolle ◽  
Jerome Colin

In their recent study, Sanchez et al. compared various cloud detection methods applied to Sentinel-2, specifically on images acquired over the Amazonian region, known for its frequent cloud cover. Comparison of cloud screening methods for optical satellite images is a complex task, which must take several parameters into account, such as the definition of a cloud, which can differ according to the methods, the different coding of the cloud and shadow masks, the possible dilation of masks, and also the way the method must be used to perform in nominal conditions. We found that the otherwise serious and useful comparison of cloud masks by Sanchez et al. is not fair to the real performances of MAJA cloud detection, for two reasons: (i) two thirds of the images used in the comparison were acquired before the launch of Sentinel-2B satellite, when the revisit of the Sentinel-2 mission was 20 days instead of five days for the nominal conditions of the mission, and (ii) there is an error in the understanding of how MAJA cloud masks are coded which also probably artificially degraded the results of MAJA as compared to the other methods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1028
Author(s):  
Alber Hamersson Sanchez ◽  
Michelle Cristina A. Picoli ◽  
Gilberto Camara ◽  
Pedro R. Andrade ◽  
Michel Eustaquio D. Chaves ◽  
...  

In their comments about our paper, the authors remark on two issues regarding our results relating to the MACCS-ATCOR Joint Algorithm (MAJA). The first relates to the sub-optimal performance of this algorithm under the conditions of our tests, while the second corresponds to an error in our interpretation of MAJA’s bit mask. To answer the first issue, we acknowledge MAJA’s capacity to improve its performance as the number of images increases with time. However, in our paper, we used the images we had available at the time we wrote our paper. Regarding the second issue, we misread the MAJA’s bit mask and mistakenly labelled shadows as clouds. We regret our error and here we present the updated tables and images. We corrected our estimation and, consequently, there is an increment in MAJA’s accuracy in the detection of clouds and cloud shadows. However, these increments are not enough to change the conclusion of our original paper.


1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Massons ◽  
D. Domingo ◽  
J. Lorente

Abstract. A cloud-detection method was used to retrieve cloudy pixels from Meteosat images. High spatial resolution (one pixel), monthly averaged cloud-cover distribution was obtained for a 1-year period. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount was analyzed. Cloud parameters obtained include the total cloud amount and the percentage of occurrence of clouds at three altitudes. Hourly variations of cloud cover are also analyzed. Cloud properties determined are coherent with those obtained in previous studies.Key words. Cloud cover · Meteosat


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Sansa ◽  
Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj

Solar radiation is characterized by its fluctuation because it depends to different factors such as the day hour, the speed wind, the cloud cover and some other weather conditions. Certainly, this fluctuation can affect the PV power production and then its integration on the electrical micro grid. An accurate forecasting of solar radiation is so important to avoid these problems. In this chapter, the solar radiation is treated as time series and it is predicted using the Auto Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. Based on the solar radiation forecasting results, the photovoltaic (PV) power is then forecasted. The choice of ARMA model has been carried out in order to exploit its own strength. This model is characterized by its flexibility and its ability to extract the useful statistical properties, for time series predictions, it is among the most used models. In this work, ARMA model is used to forecast the solar radiation one year in advance considering the weekly radiation averages. Simulation results have proven the effectiveness of ARMA model to forecast the small solar radiation fluctuations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reto Stöckli ◽  
Jędrzej S. Bojanowski ◽  
Viju O. John ◽  
Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff ◽  
Quentin Bourgeois ◽  
...  

Can we build stable Climate Data Records (CDRs) spanning several satellite generations? This study outlines how the ClOud Fractional Cover dataset from METeosat First and Second Generation (COMET) of the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) was created for the 25-year period 1991–2015. Modern multi-spectral cloud detection algorithms cannot be used for historical Geostationary (GEO) sensors due to their limited spectral resolution. We document the innovation needed to create a retrieval algorithm from scratch to provide the required accuracy and stability over several decades. It builds on inter-calibrated radiances now available for historical GEO sensors. It uses spatio-temporal information and a robust clear-sky retrieval. The real strength of GEO observations—the diurnal cycle of reflectance and brightness temperature—is fully exploited instead of just accounting for single “imagery”. The commonly-used naive Bayesian classifier is extended with covariance information of cloud state and variability. The resulting cloud fractional cover CDR has a bias of 1% Mean Bias Error (MBE), a precision of 7% bias-corrected Root-Mean-Squared-Error (bcRMSE) for monthly means, and a decadal stability of 1%. Our experience can serve as motivation for CDR developers to explore novel concepts to exploit historical sensor data.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 2729-2738 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Krijger ◽  
I. Aben ◽  
H. Schrijver

Abstract. SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT allows measurement of different trace gases including those most abundant in the troposphere (e.g. CO2, NO2, CH4, BrO, SO2). However, clouds in the observed scenes can severely hinder the observation of tropospheric gases. Several cloud detection algorithms have been developed for GOME on ERS-2 which can be applied to SCIAMACHY. The GOME cloud algorithms, however, suffer from the inadequacy of not being able to distinguish between clouds and ice/snow covered surfaces because GOME only covers the UV, VIS and part of the NIR wavelength range (240-790 nm). As a result these areas are always flagged as clouded, and therefore often not used. Here a method is presented which uses the SCIAMACHY measurements in the wavelength range between 450 nm and 1.6 µm to make a distinction between clouds and ice/snow covered surfaces. The algorithm is developed using collocated MODIS observations. The algorithm presented here is specifically developed to identify cloud-free SCIAMACHY observations. The SCIAMACHY Polarisation Measurement Devices (PMDs) are used for this purpose because they provide higher spatial resolution compared to the main spectrometer measurements.


Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Branco ◽  
Francisco Gonçalves ◽  
Ana Cristina Costa

The fastest-growing renewable source of energy is solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, which is likely to become the largest electricity source in the world by 2050. In order to be a viable alternative energy source, PV systems should maximise their efficiency and operate flawlessly. However, in practice, many PV systems do not operate at their full capacity due to several types of anomalies. We propose tailored algorithms for the detection of different PV system anomalies, including suboptimal orientation, daytime and sunrise/sunset shading, brief and sustained daytime zero-production, and low maximum production. Furthermore, we establish simple metrics to assess the severity of suboptimal orientation and daytime shading. The proposed detection algorithms were applied to a set of time-series of electricity production in Portugal, which are based on two periods with distinct weather conditions. Under favourable weather conditions, the algorithms successfully detected most of the time-series labelled with either daytime or sunrise/sunset shading, and with either sustained or brief daytime zero-production. There was a relatively low percentage of false positives, such that most of the anomaly detections were correct. As expected, the algorithms tend to be more robust under favourable rather than under adverse weather conditions. The proposed algorithms may prove to be useful not only to research specialists, but also to energy utilities and owners of small- and medium-sized PV systems, who may thereby effortlessly monitor their operation and performance.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 1995-2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghao Chu ◽  
Hugo T. C. Pedro ◽  
Lukas Nonnenmacher ◽  
Rich H. Inman ◽  
Zhouyi Liao ◽  
...  

Abstract This study proposes an automatic smart adaptive cloud identification (SACI) system for sky imagery and solar irradiance forecast. The system is deployed using off-the-shelf fish-eye cameras that offer substantial advantages in terms of cost when compared to industry-standard sky imagers. SACI uses a smart image categorization (SIC) algorithm that combines the sky images and solar irradiance measurements to classify sky conditions into three categories: clear, overcast, and partly cloudy. A cloud detection scheme, optimized for each image category, is used to quantify cloud cover from the sky images. SACI is optimized and validated against manually annotated images. Results show that SACI achieves overall classification accuracy higher than 90% and outperforms reference cloud detection methods. Cloud cover retrieved by SACI is used as an input for an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts 1-min average global horizontal irradiance (GHI), 5-, 10-, and 15-min ahead of time. The performance of the ANN forecasting model is assessed in terms of common error statistics (mean bias and root-mean-square error) and in terms of forecasting skill over persistence. The model proposed in this work achieves forecasting skills above 14%, 18%, and 19% over the persistence forecast for 5-, 10-, and 15-min forecasts, respectively.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 4153-4170
Author(s):  
Fanny Jeanneret ◽  
Giovanni Martucci ◽  
Simon Pinnock ◽  
Alexis Berne

Abstract. The validation of long-term cloud data sets retrieved from satellites is challenging due to their worldwide coverage going back as far as the 1980s. A trustworthy reference cannot be found easily at every location and every time. Mountainous regions present a particular problem since ground-based measurements are sparse. Moreover, as retrievals from passive satellite radiometers are difficult in winter due to the presence of snow on the ground, it is particularly important to develop new ways to evaluate and to correct satellite data sets over elevated areas. In winter for ground levels above 1000 m (a.s.l.) in Switzerland, the cloud occurrence of the newly released cloud property data sets of the ESA Climate Change Initiative Cloud_cci Project (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer afternoon series (AVHRR-PM) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua series) is 132 to 217 % that of surface synoptic (SYNOP) observations, corresponding to a rate of false cloud detections between 24 and 54 %. Furthermore, the overestimations increase with the altitude of the sites and are associated with particular retrieved cloud properties. In this study, a novel post-processing approach is proposed to reduce the amount of false cloud detections in the satellite data sets. A combination of ground-based downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation and temperature measurements is used to provide independent validation of the cloud cover over 41 locations in Switzerland. An agreement of 85 % is obtained when the cloud cover is compared to surface synoptic observations (90 % within ± 1 okta difference). The validation data are then co-located with the satellite observations, and a decision tree model is trained to automatically detect the overestimations in the satellite cloud masks. Cross-validated results show that 62±13 % of these overestimations can be identified by the model, reducing the systematic error in the satellite data sets from 14.4±15.5 % to 4.3±2.8 %. The amount of errors is lower, and, importantly, their distribution is more homogeneous as well. These corrections happen at the cost of a global increase of 7±2 % of missed clouds. Using this model, it is possible to significantly improve the cloud detection reliability in elevated areas in the Cloud_cci AVHRR-PM and MODIS-Aqua products.


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