International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-Run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions

Abstract The study explored the trend and effects of macroeconomic conditions on poverty (using household consumption as proxy for poverty) in Nigeria. It also analyzed how foreign migration remittances affect aggregate household poverty. It relied on secondary data analyzed using trend and cointegration analysis. It was found that on the long run, when gleaned from the perspective of aggregate household consumption, level of poverty in the country could be explained by economic growth (GDP per capita current USD, lngdp), volume of export trade as percentage of GDP (lnexptrgdp), official exchange rate of Nigerian Naira to USD (lnforex), inflation rate (lninf) and age dependency ratio of population (proxy for aggregate level of unemployment) (lnagedprat). Efforts must be put in place to promote youth employment opportunities, export market access to Small and medium scale enterprises, proper management of foreign exchange regimes. Since migration is not a sustainable source of income for the country, Nigerian authorities must provide education and skills acquisition opportunities too and enhanced working conditions to reduce dependency on immigration as a source of poverty reduction in households.

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Workers’ Remittances in Yemen: Macroeconomic Determinants and Impact on Economic Growth

Management & Economics Research Journal ◽

10.48100/merj.2021.157 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Essa A. Alhannom ◽

Ghaleb S. Mushabeb

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Planning Process ◽

Host Countries ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Inflation Rates ◽

Macroeconomic Determinants ◽

The Impact

This study aims to examine the determinants of workers’ remittances and their impact on economic growth in Yemen. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test to co-integration and error correction model (ECM) were applied on data covering the period from 1990 to 2014. According to the model of remittances determinants, workers’ remittances in Yemen respond to the macroeconomic conditions of both the home and host countries. It is found that, in the long-run, migrant stock and income level at the host countries are positively and strongly influence remittances level, with a feeble impact of domestic inflation rates. The effect of the home country’s income seems to be positive but insignificant in explaining the behavior of remittances level. The model of economic growth suggests that, in the long-run, the impact of workers’ remittances appears to be positive and moderate with positive and stronger influences observed for financial development and official development assistance. Accordingly, it is recommended that a lesser weight should be given to remittances in the strategic planning process, taking into consideration the increasing potentials of the conditions in the neighboring host countries to be changed. In addition, using remittances as a means of economic growth can be enhanced by encouraging migrants to direct their savings towards productive investment activities, and via formal channels.

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The Macroeconomic Impacts of E-Business on the Economy

Encyclopedia of E-Business Development and Management in the Global Economy ◽

10.4018/978-1-61520-611-7.ch001 ◽

2010 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Daniel Heil ◽

James E. Prieger

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Information And Communications Technology ◽

Communications Technology ◽

Profound Impact ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Long Run ◽

Macroeconomic Impacts ◽

Business Changes ◽

The Cost ◽

Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

The growing use of information and communications technology (ICT) by business—e-business— has a profound impact on the economy. E-business lowers costs and increases the choices available to consumers and firms. These microeconomic changes work their way through the economy and ultimately influence macroeconomic conditions. Overall, e-business benefits the economy in many ways. Nevertheless, not all the effects of e-business on macroeconomic conditions are positive, and some aspects of e-commerce may limit the effectiveness of monetary policy. E-business changes the macroeconomy in several beneficial ways. Some gains are static in nature, arising from the more efficient use of existing resources. For example, increases in productivity increase a nation’s GDP. In addition, by lowering search and transaction costs, e-business unleashes deflationary pressures (Willis, 2004). Other gains are dynamic, altering the path national growth takes. By lowering the cost of transferring and employing knowledge, ICT enables greater R&D and innovation, which is crucial to long-run economic growth.

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What Drives Inflation-Output Tradeoff Dynamics in Pakistan? An Assessment of International Linkages and Global Trends

THE LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ◽

10.35536/lje.2019.v24.i1.a3 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 24 (1) ◽

pp. 55-81

Author(s):

Muhammad Ayyoub ◽

Julia Wörz

Keyword(s):

Explanatory Power ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Global Trends ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Long Run ◽

Trading Partners ◽

The Impact ◽

Domestic Inflation

This article illustrates the dynamics of and tradeoff between inflation and output in Pakistan by utilizing data on 18 major trading partners in a cointegration analysis. In doing so, we use key features of the global vector autoregressive approach to construct a model that captures foreign-specific variables related to Pakistan; these are analyzed empirically along with domestic data for the period 1972–2014. Our findings show that, after accounting for the impact of increasing interdependencies, trade spillovers and changing global macroeconomic conditions, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between domestic inflation and output. The foreign variables have a significant impact on the key domestic variables. In particular, domestic inflation and trade openness, foreign inflation and world oil prices have significant explanatory power for Pakistani output. Policymakers in Pakistan should therefore account for global developments, specifically in trading partner economies.

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The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Instability and Long-Run Inequality of Workers’ Earnings in Canada

Relations industrielles ◽

10.7202/011721ar ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 60 (2) ◽

pp. 244-272 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Charles M. Beach ◽

Ross Finnie ◽

David Gray

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Earnings Inequality ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Earnings Instability ◽

Rate Effects ◽

The Impact

This paper examines the variability of workers’ earnings in Canada over the period 1982‑1997. Using a large panel of tax file data, we decompose total variation in earnings across workers and time into a long-run inequality component between workers and an average earnings instability component over time for workers. We find an increase in earnings variability between 1982‑89 and 1990‑97 that is largely confined to men and largely driven by widening long-run earnings inequality. Second, the pattern of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects on these variance components is not consistent with conventional explanations and is suggestive of an alternative paradigm of how economic growth over this period widens long-run earnings inequality. Third, when unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects are considered jointly, macroeconomic improvement is found to reduce the overall variability of earnings as the reduction in earnings instability outweighs the widening of long-run earnings inequality.

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Economic hardship and suicides

International Journal of Social Economics ◽

10.1108/ijse-06-2016-0153 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 44 (10) ◽

pp. 1348-1360 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marko Korhonen ◽

Mikko Puhakka ◽

Matti Viren

Keyword(s):

Economic Theory ◽

Critical Role ◽

Generalized Method Of Moments ◽

Economic Conditions ◽

Simultaneous Estimation ◽

Habit Persistence ◽

Content Type ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of aggregate suicides in 15 OECD countries during 1960-2010 using an economic model where changes in the welfare of consumers play the critical role for determining the number of suicides. Design/methodology/approach The hardship index based on economic theory is developed. In estimating the model, the authors apply the Pesaran et al. (2001) approach that allows the simultaneous estimation of the long-run and short-run parameters. To make sure that the authors’ findings are not specific to their method, the authors also use the generalized method of moments estimation in the panel set-up. Findings The authors found a relatively strong positive relationship between macroeconomic conditions, especially changes in aggregate consumption, and suicides. The relationship appears to be robust also in terms of the various control variables cited in the literature. The hardship index which is based on the habit persistence model of consumption predicts and explains the long-term behavior of suicides in most of the countries. Thus, the hardship index is a better economic explanatory variable than the unemployment rate or other proxies describing economic conditions. Originality/value Marrying the economic theory and econometric methods produces a reasonable empirical model to explain the connection between aggregate economic conditions and suicides.

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Fiscal deficit and trade deficit nexus in Pakistan: An econometric inquiry

Panoeconomicus ◽

10.2298/pan151231018a ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 18-18

Author(s):

Shujaat Abbas ◽

Abdul Waheed

Keyword(s):

Correction Term ◽

Trade Deficit ◽

Fiscal Deficit ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Time Series Estimation ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

This study is an attempt to explore the short-term and long-term effects of the fiscal deficit along with other macroeconomic variables on the deteriorating trade deficit of Pakistan from 1980 to 2018 by using time series estimation techniques. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and error correction term revealed the existence of cointegration among variables of interest. The estimated long-run and short-run results of the ARDL approach showed a significant positive effect of fiscal deficit on Pakistan's trade deficit in the short-run, whereas a significant adverse effect is observed in the long-run. The findings validated the twin deficit hypothesis in the short-run, whereas twin divergence proposition is observed in the long run. The study suggests prudent fiscal and monetary policies to make macroeconomic conditions favorable for the development and competitiveness of domestic production sectors engaged in the international trade.

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Small States in Global Markets

The Oxford Handbook of Irish Politics ◽

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198823834.013.24 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 404-422

Author(s):

Sam Brazys ◽

Aidan Regan

Keyword(s):

Political Economy ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Industrial Policy ◽

Growth Model ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Global Markets ◽

The Political ◽

Small States ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Long Run

The Irish foreign direct investment (FDI) growth model has attracted attention from around the globe. While a significant amount of attention has been focused on how tax strategies and industrial policy have helped attract FDI to Ireland, fewer have examined the domestic political economy that supports the model. In this chapter, we examine the spatial and sector nature of FDI in Ireland and find that it concentrates heavily in a small number of sectors and locations. Collectively, we argue that this concentration, pressure on the Irish tax regime, and changing global macroeconomic conditions may shake the political economy of the Irish FDI growth model and render it unsustainable in the long run.

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The weakness of social dialogue in the Baltic countries: An employer-centric political economy perspective

European Journal of Industrial Relations ◽

10.1177/0959680119838933 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 227-242

Author(s):

Marius Kalanta

Keyword(s):

Political Economy ◽

Value Added ◽

International Markets ◽

Wage Setting ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Social Dialogue ◽

Baltic Countries ◽

Long Run ◽

Price Trends ◽

The Baltic

Social dialogue is underdeveloped in the Baltic countries. This is often attributed to weak labour institutions and low mobilization, but I argue that employers’ motivation to engage in multi-employer bargaining is a crucial precondition for social dialogue. I build on scholarship in comparative political economy that links the long-run stability of collective bargaining to export competitiveness, and investigate why enterprises in the Baltic countries do not use multi-employer bargaining as an institutional instrument for wage coordination, even though economic growth is export-led. Until recently, employers lacked interest in coordinated wage-setting because of macroeconomic conditions: in particular favourable price trends in international markets which resulted in significantly higher value added without additional investments in efficiency, reducing structural pressure to align wages with productivity. Therefore, the strategies currently employed by Baltic enterprises are not complementary with social dialogue institutions.

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