Prediction of Typhoon Storm Surge Flood in Tokyo Bay Using Unstructured Model ADCIRC Under Global Warming Scenario

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kohin Hirano ◽  
Tomokazu Murakami ◽  
Satoshi Iizuka ◽  
Tsuyoshi Nakatani ◽  
Shinya Shimokawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Coupling Model ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Ipcc Sres

The possibility of a major typhoon and its likely effects on Tokyo Bay have been estimated using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model for future global climate conditions, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. In addition, the basin- to channel-scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model, Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), has been used to determine the risk of storm surge flood in coastal areas, particularly on the Koto Delta, where inundations would most likely reach maximum levels during a strong typhoon. The system uses a high-resolution (down to 45 m) representation of regional geometry, bathymetry, and topography and emphasizes the seamless modeling of processes including those of storm surge, stormtide inundation, and river flow. The numerical experiment is validated by comparing the temporal and spatial distribution of water elevation and inundation with results obtained using a one-way coupling model of storm surge and wave activity. The simulation results show that the maximum tide level may exceed 4 m on the north side of Tokyo Bay, and surge-induced floods may extend throughout most of the Koto Delta region. And the validation results indicate that the sea-land interaction and river flows may significantly affect the depth and increase of extent of inland inundation.

Modeling the Effect of Groundwater Abstraction on Wei River Riverine Ecological Flow Using the Coupled Model of Groundwater and Surfacewater

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 1453-1457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Mei Hong ◽  
Zu Hao Zhou ◽  
Yang Wen Jia ◽  
Hui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overland Flow ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Shallow Groundwater ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Coupling Model ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Coupled Calculation ◽  
Balance Analysis

In this study, the latest version of river boundary modular in MODFLOW, was employed in this watershed for the case study of coupled calculation between river and aquifer. Because of the complex interaction of groundwater and surface water in this area, the coupling model of SFR modular for river diffusive wave model and isochronal cell method for overland flow confluence model and numerical calculation of groundwater is coupled to simulate the runoff process of Weihe river. The model validation was aiming at river flow rate and groundwater field. The results show that 65% of the abstracted shallow groundwater comes from the river water and the reduced amount of river baseflow by the groundwater abstraction is 122 million m3 per year, which is also validated by a water balance analysis of river links. The 50% reduction of shallow groundwater abstraction may lead to a recover of 3 m of the lowest groundwater level. The study provides a sound analysis tool to the integrated water resources and ecology management in the region.

scholarly journals Prediction of Storm Surge at Tokyo Bay under RCP 8.5 Scenario by Using Meteorological-Surge-Tide Coupled Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. I_1261-I_1265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takumu IWAMOTO ◽  
Ryota NAKAMURA ◽  
Takahiro OYAMA ◽  
Ryo MIZUKAMI ◽  
Tomoya SHIBAYAMA
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Rcp 8.5

scholarly journals PREDICTION USING ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN-WAVE COUPLED MODEL FOR POSSIBLE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE IN TOKYO BAY

2011 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. I_979-I_984
Author(s):  
Tomokazu MURAKAMI ◽  
Jun YOSHINO ◽  
Hironori FUKAO ◽  
Takashi YASUDA ◽  
Satoshi IIZUKA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Tokyo Bay

scholarly journals An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanderson Bucker Moraes ◽  
Waldir Cintra de Jesus Júnior ◽  
Leonardo de Azevedo Peixoto ◽  
Willian Bucker Moraes ◽  
Edson Luiz Furtado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Third Assessment Report ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

scholarly journals Downscaling probability of long heatwaves based on seasonal mean daily maximum temperatures

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Rasmus E. Benestad ◽  
Bob van Oort ◽  
Flavio Justino ◽  
Frode Stordal ◽  
Kajsa M. Parding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence

Abstract. A methodology for estimating and downscaling the probability associated with the duration of heatwaves is presented and applied as a case study for Indian wheat crops. These probability estimates make use of empirical-statistical downscaling and statistical modelling of probability of occurrence and streak length statistics, and we present projections based on large multi-model ensembles of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and three different emissions scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Our objective was to estimate the probabilities for heatwaves with more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above 35 ∘C, which represent a condition that limits wheat yields. Such heatwaves are already quite frequent under current climate conditions, and downscaled estimates of the probability of occurrence in 2010 is in the range of 20 %–84 % depending on the location. For the year 2100, the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 suggests more frequent occurrences, with a probability in the range of 36 %–88 %. Our results also point to increased probabilities for a hot day to turn into a heatwave lasting more than 5 days, from roughly 8 %–20 % at present to 9 %–23 % in 2100 assuming future emissions according to the RCP8.5 scenario; however, these estimates were to a greater extent subject to systematic biases. We also demonstrate a downscaling methodology based on principal component analysis that can produce reasonable results even when the data are sparse with variable quality.

scholarly journals Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (6) ◽  
pp. 963-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Rowan Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature Levels

Abstract Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations, it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are toward the lower end of the range of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example, 2 K above “preindustrial,” change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article, we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) choice to use a 1986–2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

scholarly journals Water Environment Policy and Climate Change: A Comparative Study of India and South Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Danish Khan ◽  
Sonam Shakya ◽  
Hong Ha Thi Vu ◽  
Ji Whan Ahn ◽  
Gnu Nam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Scientific Progress ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Environment Policy ◽  
Political Approach

Climate change is considered to be a potential cause of global warming, which leads to a continuous rise in the global atmospheric temperature. This rising temperature also alters precipitation conditions and patterns, thereby causing frequent occurrences of extreme calamity, particularly droughts and floods. Much evidence has been documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, illustrating fluctuations in precipitation patterns caused by global climate change. Recent studies have also highlighted the adverse impact of climate change on river flow, groundwater recovery, and flora and fauna. The theoretical political approach and scientific progress have generated ample opportunities to employ previously allusive methods against impacts caused by varying climatic parameters. In this study, the current state of India’s water environment policy is compared with that of South Korea. The “3Is”—ideas, institutions, and interests—which are considered pillars in the international field of political science, are used as variables. The concept of “ideas” highlights the degree of awareness regarding climate change while formulating water environment policy. Here, the awareness of India’s management regarding emerging water issues related to climate change are discussed and compared with that of South Korea. The concept of “institutions” illustrates the key differences in water environment policy under the umbrella of climate change between both countries within the associated national administrations. India’s administrations, such as the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change; the Ministry of Water Resources, River Development, and Ganga Rejuvenation; the Ministry of Rural Development; and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, are used as a case study in this work. Finally, the concept of “interest” elaborates the prioritization of key issues in the respective water environment policies. Common interests and voids in the policies of both countries are also briefly discussed. A comparison of India’s water environment policies with that of South Korea is made to expose the gaps in India’s policies with respect to climate change, thereby seeking to identify a solution and the optimal direction for the future of the water environment policy of India.

scholarly journals Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 425-442
Author(s):  
Jung-A Yang ◽  
Sooyoul Kim ◽  
Sangyoung Son ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Hajime Mase
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Surge Height

Abstract We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

scholarly journals Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Municipal Solid Waste Landfills Using LandGEM and IPCC Methods in Yazd, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Mokhtari ◽  
Aliasghar Ebrahimi ◽  
Salimeh Rezaeinia
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Landfill Gas ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Climate Conditions

Introduction: The increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has changed the global temperature and had a negative impact on global climate conditions. Landfill gas is one of the major GHG contributors. With the knowledge of GHG inventory, it is possible to carry out disaster prevention measures. Materials and Methods: In this study, tow Landfill Gas Emissions Modeling (LandGEM) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were used to determine the GHG quantity of the Yazd county landfill sector using from 2000 to 2020. Results: During this period, by the IPCC model, the total level of methane emissions from the Yazd county landfill was 23.17 Giga gram/y (Gg/y), while based on the LandGEM model, the total value of methane emissions from the Yazd county landfill was 5.74 Gg/y. The total amount of CO2 in the Yazd county landfill of the years 2000–2020 is estimated to be 15.75 Gg/y in the LandGEM model. There is the potential to generate 11.88 MWh/year electricity for the Yazd county landfill in 2020. Conclusion: The results of the present study can be employed to plan and implement a system for collecting methane gas and control the emission of GHG to landfills.

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