Quantitative Risk Assessment: Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Wickenhauser ◽  
Brian T. Wagg ◽  
Fausto A. Barbuto
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Cost Optimization ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Life Safety ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Future Cost ◽  
Fault Trees ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Storage Facilities

TransGas undertook a risk-ranking project for storage facilities as the first step in the process of evaluating the financial and life-safety risk associated with the eight storage facilities that they operate in Saskatchewan, Canada. Based on this analysis, two salt cavern storage facilities were selected for a quantitative risk assessment. The most cost-effective maintenance actions for each cavern were determined as follows: Fault trees were prepared for all of the identified failure scenarios. Several unique computer models were developed to predict the failure rates of the events identified in the fault trees and the consequences associated with both sub-surface and atmospheric releases from the storage facilities. Both life-safety and financial risk were considered in the analysis. For each of the caverns, a number of potential maintenance scenarios were selected that address the dominant failure causes. Life-safety risk was assessed first and compared to the TransGas tolerance. A cost optimization analysis was then carried out in which the total expected future cost associated with each maintenance option was amortized over the benefit period and compared to the total expected future cost associated with the current maintenance practice. The paper describes the risk analysis and cost optimization approach and provides case study examples of the caverns analyzed and the recommendations reached in each case.

Quantitative Pipeline Risk Assessment and Maintenance Optimization

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Wickenhauser ◽  
David K. Playdon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
The Individual

The quantitative risk assessment tool was used to calculate the failure rates, failure consequences and risk levels along the pipeline. Safety risk was characterized by the individual risk ratio, which was defined as the maximum individual risk associated with a given segment divided by the tolerable individual risk. Tolerable individual risk values were defined as a function of population density following the approach developed by MIACC and the UK HSE. Financial risk was expressed in dollars per km-year and included a dollar equivalent for public perception. The recommended maintenance plan was defined as the minimum cost option that achieved a tolerable safety risk. The first step in developing the plan was to identify all segments that do not meet tolerable risk criteria (i.e., segments with an individual risk ratio greater than 1). For each of these segments a number of potential maintenance scenarios that address the dominant failure threats were selected. A cost optimization analysis was then carried out in which the total expected cost associated with each maintenance option was calculated as the sum of implementing the option plus the corresponding financial risk component, amortized over the inspection interval. This analysis was used to identify the minimum cost alternative that meets the individual risk constraint. Outcomes of the analysis included the best maintenance option (e.g., inline inspection, hydrostatic test) and the optimal time interval for segment re-evaluation.

Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria for Pipelines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Societal Risk

Abstract The lack of established acceptance criteria has been one of the key challenges to the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) techniques in the Canadian pipeline industry. While a wide range of such criteria have been developed and published, it remains difficult for most operators to commit to specific criteria because such criteria may not be acceptable to all stakeholders. Recognizing this limitation, the Canadian Standards Association formed a Risk Management Task Force (RMTF) under the Technical Committee for the Z662 Standard on the Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems to propose criteria for potential inclusion in its non-mandatory Annex on Risk Assessment. This paper describes the criteria that have been developed by the RMTF and provides the background information needed for users to understand and use them correctly. The discussion includes: a summary of the measures used to quantify the safety risk associated with an ignited product release; a summary of established international and Canadian criteria that have been considered; a description and interpretation of the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) principle; and the rationale used by the RMTF to select specific individual risk and societal risk criteria for CSA Z662. The proposed criteria are also compared to the criteria underpinning other risk-based parts of the Z662 Standard, including Annexes C and O. Guidance is provided on the analysis assumptions, methods and parameters required to ensure that the risk calculations produce results that are consistent with the definition and intent of the criteria. Key issues addressed by the guidance include the definition of individual risk (i.e. location risk versus personal risk), the pipeline length over which the frequency versus number of fatalities (F-N) relationship representing societal risk is calculated, and the effect of population density averaging over the pipeline length.

scholarly journals Application of an Integrated Risk Assessment Software to Quantify the Life Safety Risk in Building during a Fire

2018 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 00011
Author(s):  
Adam Krasuski ◽  
Mariusz Pecio
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Life Safety ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

We develop an integrated probabilistic risk assessment software called Aamks for the purpose of quantifying the life safety level of people present in buildings in the context of fire safety design. The software implements easy to use and computationally efficient quantitative risk assessment method - multisimulation. The method consists in deterministic sub-models and probabilistic techniques for sampling and quantifying the fire safety level by means of failure probabilities, individual and societal risk. Following the theoretical description of the method, a case study of a five storey hotel building 20.000 m2 is elaborated and discussed as proof of concept.

scholarly journals Parametric cost analysis and quantitative risk assessment for developing strategies to counter risks in the design and production of medical aircraft in the Russian federation

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Yuvaraj George
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Developmental Cycle ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

The objective is to identify potential risks in the aircraft development and to quantify the risks in the process, ultimately to find mitigating strategies. Monte-Carlo simulation for quantitative risk assessment and RAND DAPCA IV to calculate the cost are employed. These results are comprehended and collectively assessed with few assumptions. The assumptions are in due consideration to the local conditions, and thus they reflect in the approximations. These assumptions indicate the impact of the industrial and academic environment of the Russian Federation on the developmental cycle of the aircraft. The estimated financial risk for the development of an air medical ambulance for the Russian Federation is 29%, and the cost for unit production of the medical aircraft is nearly 19 million USD. The suggested strategies can reduce the financial risk to 22% and the cost for unit production of the medical aircraft to nearly 13 million USD.

The Effects of Corrosion Measurement Error on a Safety Risk Assessment: A TransGas Case Study

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl Bandstra ◽  
Corey Gorrill
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Transmission Pipeline ◽  
Operating Risk ◽  
The Impact

The risk of pipeline failure is a measure of the state of knowledge of the pipeline; improved knowledge of the pipeline reduces the uncertainty and therefore can reduce the associated risk. Specifically for corrosion defects, the knowledge of the number and size of defects is often obtained using in-line inspection tools which have uncertainty associated with their measurement capabilities. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a methodology that objectively assesses a range of pipeline integrity threats including the threat of corrosion failure. QRA can incorporate the impact of significant sources of analysis uncertainty, such as feature sizing in risk estimates. This paper discusses an application of QRA used to evaluate the operating risk of high pressure transmission pipeline segments in the TransGas system. Specific examples are described in which the inspection tool sizing uncertainty was shown to exert a significant influence on the calculated risk levels. In carrying out the analysis, the failure probability models selected were dependent on the nature of the integrity threat and the type of information available for each pipeline. For the assessment of corrosion integrity, the results of in-line inspections were used directly in determining failure likelihood. For the other threats including equipment impact, geotechnical hazards, manufacturing cracks and stress corrosion cracking, the probability of failure was estimated from historical failure rates with adjustments to reflect line-specific conditions. Failure consequences were estimated using models that quantify the safety implications of loss of containment events. Using these models, safety risk measures were calculated along the length of each pipeline. The results of the analysis show the benefit of the use of inspection technologies with improved sizing accuracy, in terms of reduction in expected operating risk.

scholarly journals Safety Management Plan through Offsite Risk Assessment during Tank Terminal Construction

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 548-557
Author(s):  
Eun Sung Baek ◽  
Kyoshik Park
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Alternative Scenario ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Port Area ◽  
Storage Facilities

Objectives : In order to conduct the quantitative risk assessment for hazardous chemical storage facilities at the tank terminal in the port area, the entire risk assessment process was performed in according to the guidances of the Korea Ministry of Environment.Methods : The risk of the facility was derived by the worst-case scenario, alternative scenario, and then evaluated by KORA program. The countermeasures of the risk were suggested by the concept of LOPA.Results and Discussion : Focusing on the worst case scenario and alternative scenario among the scenario having effet to offsite, risk can be reduced to satisfy regulation by applying measures of passive, active, and managerial.Conclusions : According to the result of risk assessment on benzene storage tank and tank lorry when port construction, the amount of storage inside the tank has a significant impact on the offsite. It is necessary to organize the risk of benzene, and comprehensive management of tank terminal storage facilities.

Financial Risks of the Bank: Assessment and Mechanism of Neutralization

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Alina Mukhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction. The issue of financial risk management of commercial banks is quite relevant today, because the activity of banks is the most risky of all. The presence of risks in banking can lead to unexpected losses, namely the loss of own resources. That’s why for the stable operation of the bank without loss the priority is to assess the financial risks, which is the basis for their further neutralization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop conceptual provisions for assessment financial risks and justifying the need to neutralize them. Results. The article analyzes the impact of risks on the financial stability of a banking institution. The main methods of bank risk assessment are considered. All these include the statistical method, the analytical method, the expert method, the analogue method and the combined method. The necessity of neutralization of financial risks in order to avoid negative consequences is substantiated. Also the methods of bank risks neutralization are considered. It should be noted that these methods of neutralization can not only be used, but also supplement the list with new methods must be done, which in the future will protect the bank from the influence of undesirable factors. A conceptual approach to the assessment and neutralization of financial risks is proposed. This conceptual approach aims to ensure effective assessment of the level of risk with their subsequent neutralization Conclusions. Use of a conceptual approach will allow an effective risk assessment and decision-making to avoid or accept risk. Thanks to using this approach, the banking institution will be able to react swiftly to the presence of financial risks and to prevent the occurrence of negative consequences, which may lead to a violation of the financial stability of the bank.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model
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