Reliability of TLP Tendons Under Storm Sea States

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barranco Cicilia ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Wave Forces ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Extreme Response

This paper presents a methodology for reliability analysis of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons subjected to extraordinary sea state conditions like hurricanes or winter storms. A coupled approach in time domain is used to carry out TLP random nonlinear dynamic analysis including wind, current and first and second order wave forces. The tendons Ultimate Limit State (ULS) condition is evaluated by an Interaction Ratio (IR) taking into account dynamic combination among tension, bending and hydrostatic pressure. Expected long-term extreme IR is obtained through the integration of cumulative probability functions (CPFs) fitted to response maxima associated to individual short term sea states. The reliability analysis is performed using a time-integrated scheme including uncertainties in loads, tendon strength, and analytical models. Failure probabilities for the most loaded tendon of a TLP in Campeche Bay, Mexico, considering a 100-yr design sea state and the 100-yr extreme response generated by long-term observed storms are compared.

Reliability-Based Design Criterion for TLP Tendons

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barranco Cicilia ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Criterion ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Load Effects ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
State Models

This paper presents a Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) criterion applied to the design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons in their intact condition. The design criterion considers the Ultimate Limit State (ULS) of any tendon section along its whole length taking into account both dynamic interactions of load effects and the statistics of its associated extreme response. The partial safety factors are calibrated through a long-term reliability-based methodology for the storm environmental conditions, like hurricanes and winter storms, in deep waters of the Campeche Bay, Mexico. In the reliability analysis, the uncertainties in the definition of load effects and analytic limit state models for calculation of tendon strength and randomness of material properties are included. The results show that the partial safety factors reflect both uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables in structural reliability analysis. When tendons are designed according to the developed LRFD criterion, a less scattered variation of reliability indexes is obtained for different tendon sections across a single or various TLP designs.

Implementation of a Method for Free-Spanning Pipeline Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joannes Gullaksen
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Response ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Cross Flow ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Direct Wave ◽  
Current Loading

Abstract The scope of this paper is to provide a method implemented in an application for assessment of dynamic response of free spanning pipelines subjected to combined wave and current loading. The premises for the paper are based on application development within pipeline free span evaluation in a software development project. A brief introduction is provided to the basic hydrodynamic phenomena, principles and parameters for dynamic response of pipeline free spans. The choice of method for static and dynamic span modelling has an influence on calculated modal frequencies and associated stresses. Due to the importance of frequencies and stresses for fatigue and environmental loading calculations, the choice of analysis approach influences the partial safety factor format. The aim of the structural analysis is to provide the necessary input to the calculations of VIV and force model response, and to provide realistic estimations of static loading from functional loads. Environmental flow conditions are implemented in the application, such as steady flow due to current, oscillatory flow due to waves and combined flow due to current and waves. Combined wave and current loading include the long-term current velocity distribution, short-term and long-term description of wave-induced flow velocity amplitude and period of oscillating flow at the pipe level and return period values. Inline and cross-flow vibrations are considered in separate response models. For pipelines and risers, modes are categorized in in-line or cross-flow direction. A force model is also considered for the short-term fatigue damage due to combined current and direct wave actions. Design criteria can be specified for ultimate limit state (ULS) and fatigue limit state (FLS) due to in-line and cross-flow vortex induced vibrations (VIV) and direct wave loading.

A First Step Towards the Development of a Pipeline Wrinkle Material Ultimate Limit State

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Dinovitzer ◽  
Sanjay Tiku ◽  
Vlado Semiga ◽  
Abdelfettah Fredj ◽  
Joe Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Undesirable Event ◽  
Load Effects ◽  
Line Pressure ◽  
Fault Displacement

While the formation of a wrinkle in an onshore pipeline is an undesirable event, in many instances this event does not have immediate pipeline integrity implications. The magnitude or severity of a wrinkle formed due to displacement controlled loading processes (e.g. slope movement, fault displacement, frost heave and thaw settlement) may increase with time, eventually causing serviceability concerns (e.g. fluid flow or inspection restrictions). Pipe wall damage leading to cracking and eventually a loss of containment involves contributions from the wrinkle formation and growth processes, as well as, wrinkle deformations promoted by in-service line pressure, temperature and seasonal soil displacements. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the ongoing research efforts, sponsored by TransCanada PipeLines Ltd. and Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., towards the development of a mechanics based wrinkle ultimate limits state that may be used in future to evaluate the long term integrity of wrinkled pipeline segments. The research efforts include non-linear finite element modeling to demonstrate the ability of experimentally derived material properties to predict the formation of through wall cracking induced by high and low frequency load effects. This paper outlines the material testing program used to support the development of failure criteria capable of considering the contributions of monotonic deformation, as well as, high and low cycle cyclic loading.

On the Application of Structural Reliability Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Code Calibration ◽  
Calculated Probability

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) is a useful tool in structural engineering. Uncertainty in input parameters and model uncertainties in the analysis predictions are explicitly modelled by random variables. With this methodology, the uncertainties involved are handled in a consistent and transparent way. Compared to a deterministic analysis, SRA provides improved insight in how the various uncertainties involved influence the results. The main results from SRA is the calculated probability of structural failure, but other useful results such as uncertainty importance factors and design points being the most likely combination of all variables at failure represent helpful information. The present paper illustrates some the features using SRA for two different types of application. The first application is the use of SRA as a tool for code calibration and the second shows the application of SRA to a problem where common practice is likely to be rather conservative and therefore leading to unacceptable results, but where the degree of conservatism is not known. Two examples are chosen to illustrate code calibration; i.e. hull girder ultimate limit state (ULS) for tankers and ULS for mooring design in the ULS for floating offshore vessels. Code calibration involves both SRA and design analysis following the code. It is shown how the design analysis can be modified in order to better reflect a chosen target reliability level across a selected set of test cases representative for what the code should cover. Fatigue of subsea wellhead systems is selected as an example of a special case when application of existing rules may lead to unsatisfactory results which are likely to be rather conservative. It is shown how results can be presented in terms of the accumulated probability of fatigue failure as a function of time. This may be a more suitable basis for decision making than a calculated fatigue life from a standard analysis. It is also illustrated how importance factors from the SRA can be used as guidance on how to prioritize effort in order to improve prediction of the fatigue damage. The present paper is not intended to be detailed in all input and analysis methodology, but draw the attention towards the possibilities and benefits of applying SRA in structural engineering, where the examples are used to illustrate this potential.

scholarly journals ON DESIGN FEATURES OF PROPPED AND UNPROPPED HYPERSTATIC STRUCTURES

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Algirdas Kudzys ◽  
Romualdas Kliukas ◽  
Antanas Kudzys
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Partial Factor ◽  
Ultimate Limit ◽  
Composite Steel

An effect of structural and technological features on the design methodology of hyperstatic precast reinforced concrete and composite steel‐concrete structures is discussed. Permanent and variable service, snow and wind loads of buildings and their extreme values are analysed. Two loading cases of precast reinforced concrete and composite steel‐concrete continuous and sway frame beams as propped and unpropped members are considered. A redistribution of bending moments for the ultimate limit state of beams is investigated. A limit state verification of hyperstatic beams by the partial factor and probability‐based methods is presented. It is recommended to calculate a long‐term survival probability of beams by the analytical method of transformed conditional probabilities.

Estimation of Extreme Ship Response

2012 ◽  
Vol 56 (01) ◽  
pp. 23-34
Author(s):  
Wengang Mao ◽  
Igor Rychlik
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Model ◽  
Container Ship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
High Quantiles ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Heading Angle ◽  
Ship Speed

In practice the severity of ship response is measured by high quantiles of long-term distribution of the response. The distribution is estimated by combining the short-term distribution of the response with a long-term probability distribution of encountered sea states. The paper describes an alternative approach, the so-called Rice's method, based on estimation of expected number of upcrossings of high levels by stress during 1 year. The method requires description of long-term variability of the standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and zero upcrossing frequency of ship response. It is assumed that the parameters are functions of encountered significant wave height, heading angle, and ship speed. The relation can be estimated from the measured stresses or computed by dedicated software assuming rigid ship hull model. Then Winterstein's transformed Gaussian model is used to estimate the upcrossing rates of response during a sea state. The proposed method is validated using the full-scale measurements of a 2,800 TEU container ship during the first 6 months of 2008. Numerical estimation of 4,400 TEU container ship extreme of the extreme response for a 4400 TEU container ship illustrates the approach when no measurements are available.

On Efficient Long-Term Extreme Response Estimation for a Moored Floating Structure

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeongUk Lim ◽  
Lance Manuel ◽  
Ying Min Low
Keyword(s):  
Wave Train ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Offshore Structure ◽  
Floating Structure ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Frequency Wave ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Term Response

This study investigates the use of efficient surrogate model development with the help of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for the prediction of the long-term extreme surge motion of a simple moored offshore structure. The structure is subjected to first-order and second-order (difference-frequency) wave loading. Uncertainty in the long-term response results from the contrasting sea state conditions, characterized by significant wave height, Hs, and spectral peak period, Tp, and their relative likelihood of occurrence; these two variables are explicitly included in the PCE-based uncertainty quantification (UQ). In a given sea state, however, response simulations must be run for any sampled Hs and Tp; in such simulations, typically, a set of random phases (and deterministic amplitudes) define a wave train consistent with the defined sea state. These random phases for all the frequency components in the wave train introduce additional uncertainty in the simulated waves and in the response. The UQ framework treats these two sources of uncertainty — from Hs and Tp on the one hand, and the phase vector on the other — in a nested manner that is shown to efficiently yield long-term surge motion extreme predictions consistent with more expensive Monte Carlo simulations, which serve as the truth system. Success with the method suggests that similar inexpensive surrogate models may be developed for assessing the long-term response of various offshore structures.

Long-Term Fatigue and Extreme Design of Steel Risers

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele A. L. Martins ◽  
Andre´ S. Do´ria ◽  
Eduardo S. S. Silveira
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Extreme Statistics ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Zero Crossing

Environmental loads are the main source of dynamic excitation of offshore structures. Due to the random nature of these loads, one should consider statistical properties when designing such structures. Recent codes for the design of steel risers address the use of environmental contours or full long-term analysis to take into account the statistics of load effects. Moreover, sea states for fatigue design should also be carefully selected so as to include the region of the scatter diagram which most contributes to the total damage. This paper looks into fatigue and ultimate limit states of steel risers. The first part shows a comparative study of three design criteria for extreme statistical analysis. These criteria are based on design storm, environmental contour, and full long-term statistics. A joint probability distribution found in the literature for a Brazilian location was used to describe the correlation between the significant wave height and the zero crossing wave period. The second part deals with the analysis of the coefficient of contribution for fatigue and long-term extreme statistics. Several full time domain analyses were performed and the most important sea state region for each limit state is shown in two examples of steel catenary risers. A discussion about sea state selection is then presented.

Estimating Long-Term Extreme Slamming From Breaking Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Lian ◽  
Sverre K. Haver
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Nonlinear Problems ◽  
Breaking Waves ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Breaking Wave ◽  
Large Variability

Characteristic loads for design of offshore structures are defined in terms of their annual exceedance probability, q. In the Norwegian Petroleum Regulations, q = 10−2 is required for the ultimate limit state (ULS), while q = 10−4 is required for the accidental limit state (ALS). In principle, a full long-term analysis (LTA) is required in order to obtain consistent estimates. This is straightforward for linear response problems, while it is a challenge for nonlinear problems, in particular if they additionally are of an on–off nature. The latter will typically be the case for loads due to breaking wave impacts. In this paper, the challenges related to estimation of characteristic slamming loads are discussed. Measured slamming loads from a model test are presented, and the observed large variability is discussed. The stochastic nature of slamming loads is studied using a simplified linear relation between the sea states and the Gumbel distribution parameter surfaces. The characteristic slamming loads with q-annual probability of exceedance are estimated from an LTA using the short-term distribution of the slamming loads and the long-term distribution of the sea states. The effect of integrating over a smaller area of the scatter diagram of the sea states is studied. The uncertainties in response from slamming loads are compared to a more common response process, and the relation between variability and the number of realizations in each sea state is looked into.

scholarly journals RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE LATERAL TORSIONAL BUCKLING RESISTANCE AND THE ULTIMATE LIMIT STATE OF STEEL BEAMS WITH RANDOM IMPERFECTIONS

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 902-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Kala
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Lateral Torsional Buckling ◽  
Torsional Buckling ◽  
Random Variability ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
Ultimate Limit

The paper deals with the analysis of reliability of a hot-rolled steel IPE-beam designed according to Eurocodes. A beam at its ultimate limit state is considered. The load acting on the beam consists of permanent and long-term single variation actions. The beam is loaded with end bending moments about the major principal axis. The beam is susceptible to lateral torsional buckling between the end supports. Reliability of the beam is assessed using probabilistic analysis based on the Monte Carlo method. Failure probability is a function of the random variability of the loadcarrying capacity and the random variability of load effects. The variability of the load-carrying capacity is influenced by the variability of initial imperfections. Imperfections are considered according to experimental research. Numerical studies showed that the failure probability is significantly misaligned. High values of failure probability were obtained for slender beams, for beams loaded only by permanent load action, and for beams loaded only by long-term single variation load. In further studies the values of partial safety factors of load and resistance were calibrated so that the failure probability had a target value of 7.2E–5. Relatively high values of partial safety factors were obtained especially for beams with high slenderness.

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