Challenges in outlier surgeon assessment in the era of public reporting

ObjectiveTo assess the effect of various evaluation and reporting strategies in determining outlier surgeons, defined by having worse-than-expected mortality after cardiac surgery.MethodsOur study included 33 394 isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) procedures performed by 136 surgeons and 12 172 surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) procedures performed by 113 surgeons between 2010 and 2014. Three current methodologies based on the framework of comparing observed and expected (O/E ratio) mortality, with different distributional assumptions, were examined. We further assessed the consistency of outliers detected by these three methods and the impact of using different time windows and aggregating data of CABG and SAVR procedures.ResultsThe three methods were consistent and detected same outliers, with the least conservative method detecting additional outliers (outliers detected for methods 1, 2 and 3: CABG 3 (2.2%), 2 (1.5%) and 8 (5.9%); SAVR 1 (0.9%), 0 (0.0%) and 11 (9.7%)). When numbers of cases recorded were low and events were rare, the two more conservative methods were unlikely to detect outliers unless the O/E ratios were extremely high. However, these two methods were more consistent in detecting the same surgeons as outliers across different time windows for assessment. Of the surgeons who performed both CABG and SAVR, none was an outlier for both procedures when assessed separately. Aggregating data from CABG and SAVR may lead to results to be dominated by the procedure that had a higher caseload.ConclusionsThe choices of outlier assessment method, time window for assessment and data aggregation have an intertwined impact on detecting outlier surgeons, often representing different value assumptions toward patient protection and provider penalty. It is desirable to use different methods as sensitivity analyses, avoid aggregating procedures and avoid rare-event endpoints if possible.

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Quality of life and cost consequence of delays in endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke in China

Health Economics Review ◽

10.1186/s13561-021-00352-w ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Weiyi Ni ◽

Wolfgang G. Kunz ◽

Mayank Goyal ◽

Lijin Chen ◽

Yawen Jiang

Keyword(s):

Ischemic Stroke ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽

Clinical Outcomes ◽

Healthcare Costs ◽

Time Window ◽

Time Windows ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Health State ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Although endovascular therapy (EVT) improves clinical outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke, the time of EVT initiation significantly influences clinical outcomes and healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of EVT treatment delay on cost-effectiveness in China. Methods A model combining a short-term decision tree and long-term Markov health state transition matrix was constructed. For each time window of symptom onset to EVT, the probability of receiving EVT or non-EVT treatment was varied, thereby varying clinical outcomes and healthcare costs. Clinical outcomes and cost data were derived from clinical trials and literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and incremental net monetary benefits were simulated. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the model. The willingness-to-pay threshold per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was set to ¥71,000 ($10,281). Results EVT performed between 61 and 120 min after the stroke onset was most cost-effective comparing to other time windows to perform EVT among AIS patients in China, with an ICER of ¥16,409/QALY ($2376) for performing EVT at 61–120 min versus the time window of 301–360 min. Each hour delay in EVT resulted in an average loss of 0.45 QALYs and 165.02 healthy days, with an average net monetary loss of ¥15,105 ($2187). Conclusions Earlier treatment of acute ischemic stroke patients with EVT in China increases lifetime QALYs and the economic value of care without any net increase in lifetime costs. Thus, healthcare policies should aim to improve efficiency of pre-hospital and in-hospital workflow processes to reduce the onset-to-puncture duration in China.

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Gender differences in incidence and in-hospital outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement in Spain, 2001–15

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (4) ◽

pp. 674-680 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Ana López-de-Andrés ◽

Manuel Méndez-Bailón ◽

Napoleon Perez-Farinos ◽

Valentín Hernández-Barrera ◽

Javier de Miguel-Díez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Aortic Valve ◽

Aortic Valve Replacement ◽

Valve Replacement ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Bypass Graft ◽

Length Of Hospital Stay ◽

Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement ◽

Mechanical Prosthesis ◽

Hospital Outcomes ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background we aim to examine trends in the incidence of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) among women and men in Spain from 2001 to 2015; compare in-hospital outcomes for mechanical and bioprosthetic SAVR by gender and; to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality (IHM) after SAVR. Methods We performed a retrospective study using the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database, 2001–15. We included patients that had SAVR as procedure in their discharge report. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to assess the impact of gender on the outcomes of mechanical and bioprosthetic SAVR. Results We identified 86 578 patients who underwent SAVR (40% women). Incidence of SVAR was higher in men (incidence rate ratio 1.57; 95%CI 1.55–1.59). In 2001, 73.36% of the men and 71.57% of women received a mechanical prosthesis; these proportions decreased to 43.04% in men and 35.89% in women in 2015, whereas bioprosthetic SAVR increased to 56.96% and 64.11%. After PSM we found that IHM was higher in women than in matched men for mechanical (8.94% vs. 6.79%; P < 0.001) and bioprosthetic (6.51 vs. 5.42%; P = 0.001) SAVR. The mean length of hospital stay was longer (19.54 vs. 18.74 days; P < 0.001) among females than males undergoing mechanical SAVR. Higher IHM after SAVR was associated with older age, comorbidities (except diabetes and atrial fibrillation), concomitant coronary artery bypass graft and emergency room admission. Conclusions This nation-wide analysis over 15 years of gender-specific outcomes after SAVR showed that, after PSM women have significantly higher IHM after mechanical and bioprosthetic SAVR than men.

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Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on HIV viremia: a single-center cohort study in northern Italy

AIDS Research and Therapy ◽

10.1186/s12981-021-00355-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ilaria Izzo ◽

Canio Carriero ◽

Giulia Gardini ◽

Benedetta Fumarola ◽

Erika Chiari ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Window ◽

Time Windows ◽

Continuum Of Care ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Hiv Diagnosis ◽

Hiv Patients ◽

Before And After ◽

Missed Visits ◽

Hiv Continuum Of Care ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Brescia Province, northern Italy, was one of the worst epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic. The division of infectious diseases of ASST (Azienda Socio Sanitaria Territoriale) Spedali Civili Hospital of Brescia had to face a great number of inpatients with severe COVID-19 infection and to ensure the continuum of care for almost 4000 outpatients with HIV infection actively followed by us. In a recent manuscript we described the impact of the pandemic on continuum of care in our HIV cohort expressed as number of missed visits, number of new HIV diagnosis, drop in ART (antiretroviral therapy) dispensation and number of hospitalized HIV patients due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this short communication, we completed the previous article with data of HIV plasmatic viremia of the same cohort before and during pandemic. Methods We considered all HIV-patients in stable ART for at least 6 months and with at least 1 available HIV viremia in the time window March 01–November 30, 2019, and another group of HIV patients with the same two requisites but in different time windows of the COVID-19 period (March 01–May 31, 2020, and June 01–November 30, 2020). For patients with positive viremia (PV) during COVID-19 period, we reported also the values of viral load (VL) just before and after PV. Results: the percentage of patients with PV during COVID-19 period was lower than the previous year (2.8% vs 7%). Only 1% of our outpatients surely suffered from pandemic in term of loss of previous viral suppression. Conclusions Our efforts to limit the impact of pandemic on our HIV outpatients were effective to ensure HIV continuum of care.

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Are COVID-19 mitigation measures reducing preterm birth rate in China?

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006359 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (8) ◽

pp. e006359

Author(s):

Zheng Bian ◽

Xiaoxian Qu ◽

Hao Ying ◽

Xiaohua Liu

Keyword(s):

Preterm Birth ◽

Birth Rate ◽

Time Window ◽

Time Windows ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Late Preterm Birth ◽

Child Morbidity ◽

Preterm Birth Rate ◽

Underlying Mechanisms ◽

The Impact

ObjectivePreterm birth is the leading cause of child morbidity and mortality globally. We aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in China on 23 January 2020 on the incidence of preterm birth in our institution.DesignLogistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association between the national COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in China and the incidence of preterm birth.SettingShanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital, Shanghai China.ParticipantsAll singleton deliveries abstracted from electronic medical record between 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2020.Main outcome measuresPreterm birth rate.ResultsData on 164 107 singleton deliveries were available. COVID-19 mitigation measures were consistently associated with significant reductions in preterm birth in the 2-month, 3-month, 4-month, 5-month time windows after implementation (+2 months, OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; +3 months, OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.94; +4 months, OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92; +5 months, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.93). These reductions in preterm birth were obvious across various degrees of prematurity, but were statistically significant only in moderate-to-late preterm birth (32 complete weeks to 36 weeks and 6 days) subgroup. The preterm birth difference disappeared gradually after various restrictions were removed (7th–12th month of 2020, OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.11). There was no difference in stillbirth rate across the study time window.ConclusionSubstantial decreases in preterm birth rates were observed following implementation of the national COVID-19 mitigation measures in China. Further study is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms associated with this observation.

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Impact of atrial fibrillation on in-hospital outcomes among hospitalizations for cardiac surgery: an analysis of the National Inpatient Sample

Journal of Investigative Medicine ◽

10.1136/jim-2021-001864 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. jim-2021-001864

Author(s):

Kanishk Agnihotri ◽

Paris Charilaou ◽

Dinesh Voruganti ◽

Kulothungan Gunasekaran ◽

Jawahar Mehta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Cardiac Surgery ◽

Valve Replacement ◽

Failure Time ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Bypass Graft ◽

National Inpatient Sample ◽

Inpatient Mortality ◽

Hospitalization Costs ◽

The Impact

The short-term impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on cardiac surgery hospitalizations has been previously reported in cohorts of various sizes, but results have been variable. Using the 2005–2014 National Inpatient Sample, we identified all adult hospitalizations for cardiac surgery using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification as any procedure code and AF as any diagnosis code. We estimated the impact of AF on inpatient mortality, length of stay (LOS), and cost of hospitalization using survey-weighted, multivariable logistic, accelerated failure-time log-normal, and log-transformed linear regressions, respectively. Additionally, we exact-matched AF to non-AF hospitalizations on various confounders for the same outcomes. A total of 1,269,414 hospitalizations were noted for cardiac surgery during the study period. Coexistent AF was found in 44.9% of these hospitalizations. Overall mean age was 65.6 years, 40.9% were female, mean LOS was 11.6 days, and inpatient mortality was 4.5%. Stroke rate was lower in AF hospitalizations (1.8% vs 2.1%, p<0.001). Mortality was lower in the AF (3.9%) versus the non-AF (5%) group (exact-matched OR or emOR=0.48, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.80, p<0.001; 987 matched pairs, n=2423), with similar results after procedural stratification: isolated valve replacement/repair (emOR=0.38, p<0.001), isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) (emOR=0.33, p<0.001), and CABG with valve replacement/repair (emOR=0.55, p<0.001). A 12% increase was seen in LOS in the AF subgroup (exact-matched time ratio=1.12, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.14, p<0.001) among hospitalizations which underwent valve replacement/repair with or without CABG. Hospitalizations for cardiac surgery which had coexistent AF were found to have lower inpatient mortality risk and stroke prevalence but higher LOS and hospitalization costs compared with hospitalizations without AF.

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Abstract 214: The Association of Surgeon Experience With Expected Mortality of Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in New York State

Circulation Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes ◽

10.1161/hcq.13.suppl_1.214 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (Suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Swathi Raman ◽

Ashwin Nathan ◽

Sameed Ahmed M Khatana ◽

Nimesh D Desai ◽

Pavan Atluri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Bypass Graft ◽

New York State ◽

Board Certification ◽

Artery Bypass Graft ◽

York State ◽

Surgeon Experience ◽

Expected Mortality

Purpose: Public reporting of surgical outcomes can promote quality improvement. However, this could also incentivize surgeons to avoid high-risk patients. Senior surgeons, with established referral networks, may select lower-risk cases than their junior colleagues. This study aimed to assess the relationship between surgeon experience and expected mortality rate of cases performed. Methods: Publicly available data on coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgeries between 2011-2013 were obtained from the New York State Department of Health. The 30-day expected mortality rate (EMR) for each CABG was calculated from validated models. Additionally, we obtained data on each surgeon’s medical school gradation year and board certification status from Internet sources, such as Doximity. Surgeon experience was calculated by subtracting the medical school graduation year from 2011, the start of the study period. A multivariable linear regression model was used to estimate the association between EMR and surgeon experience, adjusting for case volume and board certification status. Results: Between 2011-2013, there were 132 cardiac surgeons that performed CABG at 39 hospitals across New York State. The mean surgeon experience was 25.1 years (SD 9.1 years) and the overall mean EMR of CABG surgeries was 1.46% (SD 0.38%). The unadjusted analysis showed a 0.005% increase in EMR per additional year of surgeon experience. However, this was not statistically significant (p=0.25, 95% CI -0.0036 to 0.0013). Through the multivariable linear regression model, we did not find evidence of a significant association between operator experience and the EMR of cases performed (0.0040% per year, p=0.35, 95% CI -0.0044 to 0.012%). There was a significant association between the number of cases performed during the study period and the EMR, with an increase in EMR by 0.0005% per additional case performed (p=0.04, 95% CI 0.00004 to 0.001). There was no significant association between board certification status and EMR (p=0.10). Conclusion: Despite public reporting of CABG outcomes, our findings suggest that more experienced surgeons may not be exhibiting risk-avoidant behavior. Future research could focus on supplementing publicly reported physician-level data with patient-level datasets to better understand the association between surgeon experience and expected mortality rate of cases performed.

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The impact of minimal invasive extracorporeal circulation on postoperative kidney function

Perfusion ◽

10.1177/0267659120954601 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 026765912095460

Author(s):

Ara Shwan Media ◽

Peter Juhl-Olsen ◽

Nils Erik Magnusson ◽

Ivy Susanne Modrau

Keyword(s):

Acute Kidney Injury ◽

Renal Function ◽

Kidney Function ◽

Extracorporeal Circulation ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Bypass Graft ◽

Kidney Injury ◽

Minimal Invasive ◽

Mortality And Morbidity ◽

The Impact

Introduction: Acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery is a frequent complication associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Minimal invasive extracorporeal circulation is suggested to preserve postoperative renal function. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of minimal invasive versus conventional extracorporeal circulation on early postoperative kidney function. Methods: Randomized controlled trail including 60 patients undergoing elective stand-alone coronary artery bypass graft surgery and allocated in a 1:1 ratio to either minimal invasive (n = 30) or conventional extracorporeal circulation (n = 30). Postoperative kidney injury was assessed by elevation of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), a sensitive tubular injury biomarker. In addition, we assessed changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the incidence of acute kidney injury according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) classification. Results: We observed no differences between groups regarding increase of plasma NGAL (p = 0.31) or decline of eGFR (p = 0.82). In both groups, 6/30 patients developed acute kidney injury according to the AKIN classification, all regaining preoperative renal function within 30 days. Conclusion: Our findings challenge the superiority of minimal invasive compared to conventional extracorporeal circulation in terms of preservation of renal function following low-risk coronary surgery.

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Mortality and Revascularization among Myocardial Infarction Patients with Schizophrenia: A Population-Based Cohort Study

The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry ◽

10.1177/0706743720904845 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 65 (7) ◽

pp. 454-462 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tanya S. Hauck ◽

Ning Liu ◽

Harindra C. Wijeysundera ◽

Paul Kurdyak

Keyword(s):

Myocardial Infarction ◽

Coronary Revascularization ◽

Artery Bypass ◽

Bypass Graft ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Population Based ◽

Geographic Region ◽

Time Varying ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major source of mortality in schizophrenia, and access to care after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is poor for these patients. Aims: To understand the relationship between schizophrenia and access to coronary revascularization and the impact of revascularization on mortality among individuals with schizophrenia and AMI. Method: This study used a retrospective cohort of AMI in Ontario between 2008 and 2015. The exposure was a diagnosis of schizophrenia, and patients were followed 1 year after AMI discharge. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 1 year. Secondary outcomes were cardiac catheterization and revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to study the relationship between schizophrenia and mortality, and the time-varying effect of revascularization. Results: A total of 108,610 cases of incident AMI were identified, among whom 1,145 (1.1%) had schizophrenia. Schizophrenia patients had increased mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.77) when adjusted for age, sex, income, rurality, geographic region, and comorbidity. After adjusting for time-varying revascularization, the HR reduced to 1.38 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.58). The impact of revascularization on mortality was similar among those with and without schizophrenia (HR: 0.42; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.44 vs. HR: 0.40; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.61). Conclusions: In this sample of AMI, mortality in schizophrenia is increased, and treatment with revascularization reduces the HR of schizophrenia. The higher mortality rate yet similar survival benefit of revascularization among individuals with schizophrenia relative to those without suggests that increasing access to revascularization may reduce the elevated mortality observed in individuals with schizophrenia.

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Four steps to standardize reporting of peritoneal dialysis technique failure: A proposed approach

Peritoneal Dialysis International ◽

10.1177/0896860820976935 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 089686082097693

Author(s):

Alix Clarke ◽

Pietro Ravani ◽

Matthew J Oliver ◽

Mohamed Mahsin ◽

Ngan N Lam ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Peritoneal Dialysis ◽

Outcome Measure ◽

Time Window ◽

Time Windows ◽

Dialysis Patients ◽

Data Set ◽

The Impact ◽

Technique Failure ◽

Standardize Reporting ◽

Dialysis Technique

Background: Technique failure is an important outcome measure in research and quality improvement in peritoneal dialysis (PD) programs, but there is a lack of consistency in how it is reported. Methods: We used data collected about incident dialysis patients from 10 Canadian dialysis programs between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. We identified four main steps that are required when calculating the risk of technique failure. We changed one variable at a time, and then all steps, simultaneously, to determine the impact on the observed risk of technique failure at 24 months. Results: A total of 1448 patients received PD. Selecting different cohorts of PD patients changed the observed risk of technique failure at 24 months by 2%. More than one-third of patients who switched to hemodialysis returned to PD—90% returned within 180 days. The use of different time windows of observation for a return to PD resulted in risks of technique failure that differed by 16%. The way in which exit events were handled during the time window impacted the risk of technique failure by 4% and choice of statistical method changed results by 4%. Overall, the observed risk of technique failure at 24 months differed by 20%, simply by applying different approaches to the same data set. Conclusions: The approach to reporting technique failure has an important impact on the observed results. We present a robust and transparent methodology to track technique failure over time and to compare performance between programs.

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