Modeling Habitat Suitability and Management Options for Maintaining Round Whitefish (Prosopium cylindraceum) in Adirondack Ponds

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Kathleen Conley ◽  
Matthew D. Schlesinger ◽  
James G. Daley ◽  
Lisa K. Holst ◽  
Timothy G. Howard
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Nonnative Species ◽  
Simulated Population ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The Past ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Reintroduction Success ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

Habitat loss, acid precipitation, and nonnative species have drastically reduced the number of Adirondack waterbodies occupied by round whitefish (Prosopium cylindraceum). The goal of this study was to 1) increase the probability of reintroduction success by modeling the suitability of ponds for reintroduction and 2) better understand the effects of different rates of pond reclamation. We created a species distribution model that identified 70 waterbodies that were physically similar to occupied ponds. The most influential variables for describing round whitefish habitat included trophic, temperature, and alkalinity classes; waterbody maximum depth; maximum air temperature; and surrounding soil texture and impervious surface. Next, we simulated population dynamics under a variety of treatment scenarios and compared the probability of complete extirpation using a modified Markov model. Under almost all management strategies, and under pressure from nonnative competitors like that observed in the past 30 years, the number of occupied ponds will decline over the next 100 years. However, restoring one pond every 3 years would result in a 99% chance of round whitefish persistence after 100 years.

scholarly journals Community Confounding In Joint Species Distribution Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Van Ee ◽  
Jacob S. Ivan ◽  
Mevin B. Hooten
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Subalpine Forest ◽  
Community Effects ◽  
Distribution Models

Abstract Joint species distribution models have become ubiquitous for studying species-habitat relationships and dependence among species. Accounting for community structure often improves predictive power, but can also alter inference on species-habitat relationships. Modulated species-habitat relationships are indicative of community confounding: The situation in which interspecies dependence and habitat effects compete to explain species distributions. We discuss community confounding in a case study of mammalian responses to the Colorado bark beetle epidemic in the subalpine forest by comparing the inference from independent single species distribution models and a joint species distribution model. We present a method for measuring community confounding and develop a restricted version of our hierarchical model that orthogonalizes the habitat and species random effects. Our results indicate that variables associated with the severity and duration of the bark beetle epidemic suffer from community confounding. This implies that mammalian responses to the bark beetle epidemic are governed by interconnected habitat and community effects. Disentangling habitat and community effects can improve our understanding of the ecological system and possible management strategies. We evaluate restricted regression as a method for alleviating community confounding and distinguish it from other inferential methods for confounded models.

How to make intensively used peat meadows sustainable for the future? Four management options to potentially reduce peat oxidation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Merit van den Berg ◽  
Christian Fritz ◽  
Bas van de Riet ◽  
Stefan Weideveld ◽  
Thomas Gremmen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The Past ◽  
Lower Oxygen ◽  
Aerobic Decomposition ◽  
Plant Yields ◽  
Oxygen Intrusion ◽  
Almost All

<p>Almost all peatlands in the Netherlands are drained for agricultural purposes or in the past for peat extraction. What remains is a peatland area of about 300.000 ha of which 85 % is used for agriculture. As a result of peat oxidation, these areas are still subsiding by about 1 cm per year. Another effect is the enormous emission of CO<sub>2</sub>, which contributes to about 4% of total Dutch greenhouse gas emissions. With the awareness of a changing climate and the need for protection against flooding of coastal areas, solutions are being searched to reduce or stop peat oxidation and coinciding land subsidence and CO<sub>2</sub> emission.</p><p>In this presentation we will show four different management options which are currently being tested in the Netherlands. These options all focus on increasing the groundwater table to lower oxygen intrusion and consequently lower aerobic decomposition. Depending on crop choices water levels may need to stay 40 cm below the surface to maximize fodder plant yields. We expect a trade-off between land-use intensity (yields) and CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction. The management options range from maintaining the current land-use by elevating summer water levels with submerged drainage pipes to the development of peat-forming plant species by complete rewetting. Data of the effects of these management options on CO<sub>2</sub> emission will be shown and with that the effectiveness of reducing peat oxidation.</p>

Climate change in the Missouri central hardwood region : consequences for forest landscapes, and management strategies

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jeffrey Eric Schneiderman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Impact

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Climate change may result in a change in the tree species present within forests. The Missouri Central Hardwood Region represents one area where these changes may occur. Due to the natural diversity of species and economic value of this area, it is beneficial to understand how climate change might affect trees currently present. Computer models (a human creation to help understand real world systems in a simplified manner) can be used to study the impact of climate change on forests. My objectives were to 1) understand how different forest impact models studying climate change compared to each other, 2) determine whether climate change or current timber harvest practices was more likely to change the characteristics of the forest, and 3) analyze land management alternatives to determine which was best at creating beneficial qualities for forests under climate change. For my first objective, I used a species distribution model and a process model, two models that use different analysis approaches, to assess climate change impacts on tree species, and compared the results. On a broad level, both models agreed, but when looking at the study area at smaller resolution, the models did not agree as well. For my second objective, I coupled a process model and forest landscape model. Although results showed there was variation based on species regarding whether climate or harvest had the greater impact, both usually had significant impacts on tree species. Results for my third objective indicated that multiple management approaches are necessary to manage future forests in a beneficial manner. My results have implications for future forest sustainability. Uncertainty exists regarding climate change's full impact, but with proper forest management and research these challenges can be reduced.

Distribution and spatial modelling of a soft coral habitat in the Port Stephens–Great Lakes Marine Park: implications for management

2016 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davina E. Poulos ◽  
Christopher Gallen ◽  
Tom Davis ◽  
David J. Booth ◽  
David Harasti
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Soft Coral ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Marine Park ◽  
Environmental Requirements ◽  
Port Stephens

Habitat mapping is a useful method for understanding the complex spatial relationships that exist in the marine environment, and is used to evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies, particularly in regards to marine protected areas. This study explored the observed and predicted distribution of an uncommon soft coral species, Dendronephthya australis within the Port Stephens–Great Lakes Marine Park. Dendronephthya australis was mapped by video operated by a SCUBA diver towing a time synchronised GPS. A species distribution model was created to explore the possible occurrence of D. australis outside of the mapped area, using four environmental parameters: bathymetry, slope of seabed, velocity of tidal currents, and distance from estuary mouth. Dendronephthya australis colonies occurred along the southern shoreline in the Port Stephens estuary between Fly Point and Corlette Point, but no colonies were found within sanctuary (no-take) zones within the marine park. The model illustrated limited habitat suitability for D. australis within a larger section of the estuary, suggesting this species has specific environmental requirements survival. Owing to its current threats (anchor damage and fishing line entanglement), implications from these findings will assist future management and protection decisions, particularly in regard to its protection within a marine park.

Uncertainty and Risk Evaluation in Stock Assessment Advice for U.S. Marine Fisheries

1994 ◽  
Vol 51 (12) ◽  
pp. 2715-2720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew A. Rosenberg ◽  
Victor R. Restrepo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scientific Advice ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Process Measurement ◽  
The Past

This paper describes some of the ways that the uncertainty in fisheries scientific advice has been communicated to managers for different fisheries in the United States in the past several years. Describing the uncertainty can be important in allowing managers to weigh the benefits and losses of different management strategies and to allay concerns about the effects of process, measurement, and model errors on the scientific advice, even if a formal decision theoretic risk analysis has not been carried out. The four general steps in analyzing uncertainty and assessing risk are estimation of the uncertainty in the assessment of current stock status due to measurement error, evaluation of the impacts of potential model errors on the assessment, stochastic projections incorporating estimation error and process errors to investigate the impacts of different management options, and assessment of risk using simple utility functions. At least one of these steps has been included in assessment analyses of about 20 major U.S. fisheries. All of these steps have been incorporated in the scientific advice on a few fisheries to date and should be attempted whenever possible to improve the information available to fishery managers.

BP Global Energy Outlook 2030

2013 ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rühl
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The Us ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Oil Gas

This paper presents the highlights of the third annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook, which sets out BP’s view of the most likely developments in global energy markets to 2030, based on up-to-date analysis and taking into account developments of the past year. The Outlook’s overall expectation for growth in global energy demand is to be 36% higher in 2030 than in 2011 and almost all the growth coming from emerging economies. It also reflects shifting expectations of the pattern of supply, with unconventional sources — shale gas and tight oil together with heavy oil and biofuels — playing an increasingly important role and, in particular, transforming the energy balance of the US. While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26—28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels — nuclear, hydro and renewables — on a share of around 6—7% each. By 2030, increasing production and moderating demand will result in the US being 99% self-sufficient in net energy. Meanwhile, with continuing steep economic growth, major emerging economies such as China and India will become increasingly reliant on energy imports. These shifts will have major impacts on trade balances.

Building Research Teams

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Peach
Keyword(s):  
Common Goal ◽  
Research Teams ◽  
Building Research ◽  
The Past ◽  
Collective Activity ◽  
Research Administrators ◽  
Working Together ◽  
Common Goals ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Century Science

This chapter discusses the process of building research teams. Increasingly over the past three-quarters of a century, science has become a collective activity, with teams of tens, hundreds or even thousands of scientists, engineers and technicians working together on a common goal. Consequently, almost all research involves building, motivating and maintaining a research team. Even a theoretical group is likely to have one or two postdocs, graduate students and visitors, but research teams will, in addition, have engineers and technicians, as well as, possibly, research administrators. The chapter also addresses the importance of creating and maintaining a good team and team spirit, as large projects are assembled from a large number of small teams working on common goals, usually in a loose federated structure with some overall coordination and leadership.

scholarly journals A Robust Prediction Model for Species Distribution Using Bagging Ensembles with Deep Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1495
Author(s):  
Jehyeok Rew ◽  
Yongjang Cho ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Robust Prediction

Species distribution models have been used for various purposes, such as conserving species, discovering potential habitats, and obtaining evolutionary insights by predicting species occurrence. Many statistical and machine-learning-based approaches have been proposed to construct effective species distribution models, but with limited success due to spatial biases in presences and imbalanced presence-absences. We propose a novel species distribution model to address these problems based on bootstrap aggregating (bagging) ensembles of deep neural networks (DNNs). We first generate bootstraps considering presence-absence data on spatial balance to alleviate the bias problem. Then we construct DNNs using environmental data from presence and absence locations, and finally combine these into an ensemble model using three voting methods to improve prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments verified the proposed model’s effectiveness for species in South Korea using crowdsourced observations that have spatial biases. The proposed model achieved more accurate and robust prediction results than the current best practice models.

scholarly journals Improved PrEP Awareness and Use among Trans Women in San Francisco, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin C. Wilson ◽  
Christopher J. Hernandez ◽  
Susan Scheer ◽  
Dillon Trujillo ◽  
Sean Arayasirikul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Anal Intercourse ◽  
Receptive Anal Intercourse ◽  
The Past ◽  
National Hiv Behavioral Surveillance ◽  
Trans Women ◽  
Gender Based ◽  
Prep Awareness ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Exposure Prophylaxis

AbstractTransgender women face a serious risk of HIV infection. Despite this, there is limited knowledge and use of Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We measured the continuity of prevention across services in the PrEP cascade and correlates of PrEP use among trans women in San Francisco enrolled in the 2019/20 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance Study. Knowledge and use of PrEP among trans women in San Francisco increased in recent years; almost all (94.0%) had heard about PrEP, 64.7% had discussed PrEP with a healthcare provider, and 44.8% had taken PrEP in the past 12 months. PrEP use was associated with participation in a PrEP demonstration project (aOR = 31.44, p = 0.001) and condomless receptive anal intercourse (aOR = 3.63, p = 0.024). Injection drug use was negatively associated (aOR = 0.19, p = 0.014). Efforts are needed to combat the gender-based stigma and discrimination faced by trans women, which can result in avoidance and mistrust of the medical system.

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