Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 164-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Aubin ◽  
A.D. Munson ◽  
F. Cardou ◽  
P.J. Burton ◽  
N. Isabel ◽  
...  

The integration of functional traits into vulnerability assessments is a promising approach to quantitatively capture differences in species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, allowing the refinement of tree species distribution models. In response to a clear need to identify traits that are responsive to climate change and applicable in a management context, we review the state of knowledge of the main mechanisms, and their associated traits, that underpin the ability of boreal and temperate tree species to persist and (or) shift their distribution in a changing climate. We aimed to determine whether current knowledge is sufficiently mature and available to be used effectively in vulnerability assessments. Marshalling recent conceptual advances and assessing data availability, our ultimate objective is to guide modellers and practitioners in finding and selecting sets of traits that can be used to capture differences in species’ ability to persist and migrate. While the physiological mechanisms that determine sensitivity to climate change are relatively well understood (e.g., drought-induced cavitation), many associated traits have not been systematically documented for North American trees and differences in methodology preclude their widespread integration into vulnerability assessments (e.g., xylem recovery capacity). In contrast, traits traditionally associated with the ability to migrate and withstand fire are generally well documented, but new key traits are emerging in the context of climate change that have not been as well characterized (e.g., age of optimum seed production). More generally, lack of knowledge surrounding the extent and patterns in intraspecific trait variation, as well as co-variation and interaction among traits, limit our ability to use this approach to assess tree adaptive capacity. We conclude by outlining research needs and potential strategies for the development of trait-based knowledge applicable in large-scale modelling efforts, sketching out important aspects of trait data organization that should be part of a coordinated effort by the forest science community.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Chen ◽  
Weiteng Shen ◽  
Bing Yu

China’s marine fisheries are undergoing large-scale environmental changes associated with climate change, marine pollution, and overfishing. The assessment of marine fisheries vulnerability has become extremely necessary for fisheries management and sustainable development. However, studies on China’s marine fisheries vulnerability remains sparse. This study aimed to provide an analysis of the inter-provincial level vulnerability of China’s marine fisheries under multiple disturbances. The vulnerability measure was composed of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators specific to marine fisheries based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definitions. Results showed that Liaoning, Hebei, Fujian, and Hainan provinces appeared to be the most vulnerable; Shanghai appeared to be less vulnerable among China’s 11 coastal provinces; and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among coastal regions. The high vulnerability regions could be divided into two different patterns according to the combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, but they all had one thing in common: relatively low adaptive capacity. While some existing coercive measures to reduce dependence on fisheries were found to be helpful in China, the reality showed that appropriate adaptation measures such as improving fishermen’s education level and increasing vocational training may be helpful in enhancing the existing policy effectiveness.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 959
Author(s):  
Ana María Durán-Quesada ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Paulina Ordoñez ◽  
Luis Gimeno

The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal scales is a characteristic feature of the region. The impact of hydro–meteorological extreme events has played a huge importance for regional livelihood, having a mostly negative impact on socioeconomics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and droughts are often discussed in terms of their impact on economic activities and access to water. Furthermore, future climate projections suggest that warming scenarios are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which poses a major threat to vulnerable communities. In a region where the economy is largely dependent on agriculture and the population is exposed to the impact of extremes, understanding the climate system is key to informed policymaking and management plans. A wealth of knowledge has been published on regional weather and climate, with a majority of studies focusing on specific components of the system. This study aims to provide an integral overview of regional weather and climate suitable for a wider community. Following the presentation of the general features of the region, a large scale is introduced outlining the main structures that affect regional climate. The most relevant climate features are briefly described, focusing on sea surface temperature, low–level circulation, and rainfall patterns. The impact of climate variability at the intra–seasonal, inter–annual, decadal, and multi–decadal scales is discussed. Climate change is considered in the regional context, based on current knowledge for natural and anthropogenic climate change. The present challenges in regional weather and climate studies have also been included in the concluding sections of this review. The overarching aim of this work is to leverage information that may be transferred efficiently to support decision–making processes and provide a solid foundation on regional weather and climate for professionals from different backgrounds.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. e0231595
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Allyn ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Bradley S. Franklin ◽  
Felix Massiot-Granier ◽  
Andrew J. Pershing ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. e1500936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans ter Steege ◽  
Nigel C. A. Pitman ◽  
Timothy J. Killeen ◽  
William F. Laurance ◽  
Carlos A. Peres ◽  
...  

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.


2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 165-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.E. de Graaf ◽  
N.C. van de Giesen ◽  
F.H.M. van de Ven

Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability to droughts in the urbanized low-lying areas in the western part of the Netherlands. In this paper a possibility is explored to decrease vulnerability of urban areas by implementing an alternative water supply option. A four component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is elaborated that current water supply strategies in the Netherlands mainly focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing improved water storage and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four components. Adaptive capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply. A concept which is symbolically called ‘the closed city’ uses local urban rainfall as the only source of water supply. The ‘closed city’ can decrease the water dependence of urban areas on (1) the surrounding rural areas that are diminishing in size and that are increasingly under strain and (2) river water resources that will probably be less constant and reliable as a result of climate change.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1128-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngjoo Kwak ◽  
◽  
Yoichi Iwami ◽  

Globally, large-scale floods are one of the most serious disasters, considering increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. This is not only a domestic problem but also an international water issue related to transboundary rivers in terms of global river flood risk assessment. The purpose of this study is to propose a rapid flood hazard model as a methodological possibility to be used on a global scale, which uses flood inundation depth and works reasonably despite low data availability. The method is designed to effectively simplify complexities involving hydrological and topographical variables in a flood risk-prone area when applied in an integrated global flood risk assessment framework. The model was used to evaluate flood hazard and exposure through pixel-based comparison in the case of extreme flood events caused by an annual maximum daily river discharge of 1/50 probability of occurrence under the condition of climate change between two periods, Present (daily data from 1980 to 2004) and Future (daily data from 2075 to 2099). As preliminary results, the maximum potential extent of inundation area and the maximum number of affected people show an upward trend in Present and Future.


2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
ERIN C. RIORDAN ◽  
THOMAS W. GILLESPIE ◽  
LINCOLN PITCHER ◽  
STEPHANIE S. PINCETL ◽  
G. DARREL JENERETTE ◽  
...  

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Schnabel ◽  
Xiaojuan Liu ◽  
Matthias Kunz ◽  
Kathryn E. Barry ◽  
Franca J. Bongers ◽  
...  

AbstractExtreme climatic events threaten forests and their climate mitigation potential globally. Understanding the drivers promoting ecosystems stability is therefore considered crucial to mitigate adverse climate change effects on forests. Here, we use structural equation models to explain how tree species richness, asynchronous species dynamics and diversity in hydraulic traits affect the stability of forest productivity along an experimentally manipulated biodiversity gradient ranging from 1 to 24 tree species. Tree species richness improved stability by increasing species asynchrony. That is at higher species richness, inter-annual variation in productivity among tree species buffered the community against stress-related productivity declines. This effect was mediated by the diversity of species’ hydraulic traits in relation to drought tolerance and stomatal control, but not the community-weighted means of these traits. Our results demonstrate important mechanisms by which tree species richness stabilizes forest productivity, thus emphasizing the importance of hydraulically diverse, mixed-species forests to adapt to climate change.


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