scholarly journals Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. e0231595
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Allyn ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Bradley S. Franklin ◽  
Felix Massiot-Granier ◽  
Andrew J. Pershing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Quantitative Distribution ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 164-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Aubin ◽  
A.D. Munson ◽  
F. Cardou ◽  
P.J. Burton ◽  
N. Isabel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Functional Traits ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Recovery Capacity ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

The integration of functional traits into vulnerability assessments is a promising approach to quantitatively capture differences in species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, allowing the refinement of tree species distribution models. In response to a clear need to identify traits that are responsive to climate change and applicable in a management context, we review the state of knowledge of the main mechanisms, and their associated traits, that underpin the ability of boreal and temperate tree species to persist and (or) shift their distribution in a changing climate. We aimed to determine whether current knowledge is sufficiently mature and available to be used effectively in vulnerability assessments. Marshalling recent conceptual advances and assessing data availability, our ultimate objective is to guide modellers and practitioners in finding and selecting sets of traits that can be used to capture differences in species’ ability to persist and migrate. While the physiological mechanisms that determine sensitivity to climate change are relatively well understood (e.g., drought-induced cavitation), many associated traits have not been systematically documented for North American trees and differences in methodology preclude their widespread integration into vulnerability assessments (e.g., xylem recovery capacity). In contrast, traits traditionally associated with the ability to migrate and withstand fire are generally well documented, but new key traits are emerging in the context of climate change that have not been as well characterized (e.g., age of optimum seed production). More generally, lack of knowledge surrounding the extent and patterns in intraspecific trait variation, as well as co-variation and interaction among traits, limit our ability to use this approach to assess tree adaptive capacity. We conclude by outlining research needs and potential strategies for the development of trait-based knowledge applicable in large-scale modelling efforts, sketching out important aspects of trait data organization that should be part of a coordinated effort by the forest science community.

Automatic classification of climate change effects on marine species distributions in 2050 using the AquaMaps model

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianpaolo Coro ◽  
Chiara Magliozzi ◽  
Anton Ellenbroek ◽  
Kristin Kaschner ◽  
Pasquale Pagano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Automatic Classification ◽  
Climate Change Effects

scholarly journals Roles of hostplant availability and quality for the distribution and climate change response of a dietary specialist herbivore

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Nalleli Carvajal Acosta ◽  
Kailen Mooney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Larval Performance ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Specialist Herbivore ◽  
Climate Envelope ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Critical Resources

AbstractSpecies distributions are recognized to be driven by abiotic factors, but the importance of biotic interactions that provide critical resources is less well understood, especially with respect to variation in critical resource quality. Disentangling the relative importance of these factors – abiotic environment, presence of critical resources and their quality-may be critical to predicting species response to climate change. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to address these questions for the western monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus), a species that obligately feeds upon plants in the genus Asclepias, and for which hostplant quality in this region varies among species by an order of magnitude. We modeled the distribution of 24 Asclepias species to develop and compare three monarch distribution models with increasing levels of ecological complexity: (i) a null model using only environmental factors (a climate envelope model), (ii) a model using environmental factors and Asclepias spp. distribution, (iii) and a model using environmental factors and Asclepias spp. distribution weighted by hostplant quality assessed through a greenhouse bioassays of larval performance. Asclepias models predicted that half of the Asclepias spp. will both expand their ranges and shift their distribution towards higher latitudes while half will contract within the study region. Our performance analysis of monarch models revealed that the climate envelope model was the poorest performing. Adding hostplant distribution produced the best performing model, while accounting for hostplant quality did not improved model performance. The climate envelope model estimated more restrictive contemporary and future monarch ranges compared to both hostplants models. Although all three models predicted future monarch range expansions, the projected future distributions varied among models. The climate envelope model predicted range expansions along the Pacific coast and contractions inland while hostplants models predicted range expansions in both of these regions and, as a result, estimated 14 and19% increases in distribution relative to the climate envelope model, respectively. These results suggest that information on biotic interactions that provide critical resources is needed to predict future species distributions, but that variation in the quality of those critical resources may be of secondary importance.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

scholarly journals Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laspiur ◽  
J. C. Santos ◽  
S. M. Medina ◽  
J. E. Pizarro ◽  
E. A. Sanabria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Behavioral Thermoregulation ◽  
Rapid Loss ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Lizard Species ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

AbstractGiven the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species’ avoidance of extinction.

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