scholarly journals INFORMATION-BASED ASSET PRICING

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 107-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
DORJE C. BRODY ◽  
LANE P. HUGHSTON ◽  
ANDREA MACRINA
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Brownian Bridge ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Noisy Information ◽  
Market Factors

A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the corresponding price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a collection of independent random variables called market factors. With each such "X-factor" we associate a market information process, the values of which we assume are accessible to market participants. Each information process consists of a sum of two terms; one contains true information about the value of the associated market factor, and the other represents "noise". The noise term is modelled by an independent Brownian bridge that spans the interval from the present to the time at which the value of the factor is revealed. The market filtration is assumed to be that generated by the aggregate of the independent information processes. The price of an asset is given by the expectation of the discounted cash flows in the risk-neutral measure, conditional on the information provided by the market filtration. In the case where the cash flows are the dividend payments associated with equities, an explicit model is obtained for the share-price process. Dividend growth is taken into account by introducing appropriate structure on the market factors. The prices of options on dividend-paying assets are derived. Remarkably, the resulting formula for the price of a European-style call option is of the Black–Scholes–Merton type. We consider the case where the rate at which information is revealed to the market is constant, and the case where the information rate varies in time. Option pricing formulae are obtained for both cases. The information-based framework generates a natural explanation for the origin of stochastic volatility in financial markets, without the need for specifying on an ad hoc basis the dynamics of the volatility.

scholarly journals Pricing with Variance Gamma Information

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Lane P. Hughston ◽  
Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Markov Property ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Variance Gamma ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Market Factor

In the information-based pricing framework of Brody, Hughston & Macrina, the market filtration {Ft}t≥0 is generated by an information process {ξt}t≥0 defined in such a way that at some fixed time T an FT-measurable random variable XT is “revealed”. A cash flow HT is taken to depend on the market factor XT, and one considers the valuation of a financial asset that delivers HT at time T. The value of the asset St at any time t∈[0,T) is the discounted conditional expectation of HT with respect to Ft, where the expectation is under the risk neutral measure and the interest rate is constant. Then ST−=HT, and St=0 for t≥T. In the general situation one has a countable number of cash flows, and each cash flow can depend on a vector of market factors, each associated with an information process. In the present work we introduce a new process, which we call the normalized variance-gamma bridge. We show that the normalized variance-gamma bridge and the associated gamma bridge are jointly Markovian. From these processes, together with the specification of a market factor XT, we construct a so-called variance-gamma information process. The filtration is then taken to be generated by the information process together with the gamma bridge. We show that the resulting extended information process has the Markov property and hence can be used to develop pricing models for a variety of different financial assets, several examples of which are discussed in detail.

scholarly journals An Empirical Research on Beximco Knitting Ltd: Ratio, DuPont, Valuation and Pro-Forma Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
K.M. Anwarul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Operating Efficiency ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Lower Efficiency ◽  
Pro Forma

Beximco Knitting Ltd belongs to the Textile Industry. This paper examines some ratio analysis that showed the overall internal liquidity position of the company, that is not satisfactory; because of the entire ratio performance is not good, operating efficiency ratio is not good, indicates that lower efficiency generate capacity in terms of sale, debt-equity ratio is increasing overtime in order to employ the more debt financing as long-term borrowing compare to the equity financing, which make the firm more risky. Beximco Knitting Ltd is more sensitive to leverage compare to net profit margin and Asset turnover Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Model is using for valuation of the Beximco Knitting Ltd‘s prospective analysis. Forecasting the cash flow we have to use 2016-2017 as the base year of foresting cash flow for 2018-2020.The terminal growth rate of free cash flow is 2% and the present value of free cash flow is arrived using the 'Exit Multiple' model.Free cash flow to equity is discounted 10.77% to arrive at an estimated present value of free cash flows available to equity (debt and equity holders as a group), which is also known as Enterprise Value. Equity value per share (142.07) on the other hand, the market price of Beximco Knitting is 47.5tk per share, which indicates the share price is undervalued. Under pro-forma analysis we find out that all items of the financial statement is improving based on the assumption, but as investor‘s perspective we think investing in that company is not beneficial over the long run.Because the company can‘t earn positive return until 2020. Findings of the artcle are to really negative signs in accordance the investor‘s perspective, because its earnings per share are not attractive as much to invest.

scholarly journals Overview of actions to strengthen financial stability of companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 04016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fariza Yerdavletova ◽  
Bayan Ermekbaeva ◽  
Gulnar Zhunissova ◽  
Zhanar Mukhametzhanova
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounts Receivable ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Return On Capital ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Negative Factors

Based on a review of the recommendations of various scientists, the article presents measures to strengthen the solvency and financial stability of companies in various fields of production. These include effective receivables management, accelerated capital turnover, increased profits and cash flow. The article reveals the concept of financial stability as the main criteria of the company’s financial condition. As well the negative aspects of the financial condition of companies are discussed. All negative factors divided into three groups based on their characteristics: general economic factors, state factors, and market factors. The model of accounts receivable management, which includes three stages is presented. It is concluded that a high share of accounts receivable as part of assets can lead any company to loss of solvency. Ways to improve the structure of funding sources, aspects of increasing return on capital are considered. Several recommendations given to reduce the duration of capital turnover in order to increase the company’s solvency. As a factor of increasing profits a possible ways of minimizing costs are investigated. Ways of increasing production volumes are highlighted and described, measures to increase cash flow are analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the irrational management of cash flows.

scholarly journals PENGARUH ANTARA LABA AKUNTANSI DAN TOTAL ARUS KAS TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
Raisa Fitri
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Weak Support ◽  
Study Population

This strong growth is happening because of the expansion of the Indonesian economy is fertile. Consumer spending makes a strong middle class residential business segment was the largest contributor to growth in Indonesia properties .. In this study, the parameters used to measure the performance of the company's financial statements is the accounting profit and the total cash flow. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of variable accounting profit, and total cash flow to share price. Using multiple regression analysis, the study population is all companies sub-sector property and real estate listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2013-2015. The results showed that the accounting profit that affect stock prices. Accounting profits will provide information and a positive signal on the stock price on the property sub-sector and real estate, so it will affect the reduction or increase in the company's stock price. Total variable cash flows do not affect the stock price. Data in the cash flow statement only provide weak support for investors.

Analyzing the figures of consolidated statement of cash flows of the world's biggest publicly traded oil and gas corporations

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1101-1120
Author(s):  
O.V. Shimko
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
The Public ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject. The article investigates key figures disclosed in consolidated cash flow statements of 25 leading publicly traded oil and gas companies from 2006 to 2018. Objectives. The focus is on determining the current level of values of the main components of consolidated statement of cash flows prepared by leading publicly traded oil and gas companies, identifying key trends within the studied period and factors that led to any transformation. Methods. The study draws on methods of comparative and financial-economic analysis, as well as generalization of materials of consolidated cash flow statements. Results. The comprehensive analysis of annual reports of 25 oil and gas companies enabled to determine changes in the key figures and their relation in the structure of consolidated cash flow statements in the public sector of the industry. It also established main factors that contributed to the changes. Conclusions. In the period under study, I revealed an increase in cash from operating activities; established that capital expenditures in the public sector of the industry show an overall upward trend and depend on the level of oil prices. The analysis demonstrated that even integrated companies’ upstream segment prevail in the capital expenditures structure. The study also unveiled an increase in dividend payments, which, most of the time, exceeded free cash flows thus increasing the debt burden.

ANALISIS EKSPOSUR EKONOMI DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA PADA PERUSAHAAN ROKOK YANG TERCATAT DI BEI

Wahana ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-109
Author(s):  
Ida Musdafia Ibrahim ◽  
Arif Haryono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Rate Risk

This study aims to analyze economic exposures and its factors namely exchange rates and inflation, that influence firm value as reflected through firm cash flow. Analytical method used Ordinary Least Square and eviews as analytical tool. This study used secondary data and cigarette industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as samples along 2008 to 2017. Samples choosing method used purposive sampling based on determined criterias. The results showed that partially economic exposure had positive effects on firm value but insignificant. These could be seen from the economic exposure factors influncenced namely exchange rates and inflations.The exchange rate risk has low influenced cash flow was caused of the tobacco industry has low level of export/import.Enhance,inflation also had low effect on cash flow was caused of the tendency of cigarette consumers will continue to buy cigarettes even though its price increases. In short, economic exposure in the tobacco industry has low influence toward firms value. Hence, simultaneously changes in exchange rates and inflation which are economic exposure indicators have a significant effect on cash flows.  Keywords: Economic Exposure, Exchange Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Firms Value, Cash Flow

Accounting for Employee Stock Options

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Kirschenheiter ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Jacob K. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Options ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Stock Option ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Employee Stock Options ◽  
Deferred Taxes ◽  
Recommended Treatment ◽  
Option Values ◽  
The Common

Accounting for employee stock options is affected by whether outstanding options are viewed as equity or liabilities. The common perception is that the FASB's recommended treatment (per SFAS No. 123), which is based on the options-as-equity view, results in representative financial statements. We argue that this treatment distorts performance measures for three reasons. First, the deferred taxes associated with nonqualified options should also be included as equity, but are not. Second, since unexpected share price changes affect optionholders and equityholders differently, combining their interests provides an average earnings effect that is not representative for either group. We show that efforts to isolate the interests of common stockholders via diluted earning per share calculations (per SFAS No. 128) are inherently incapable of identifying wealth transfers between stockholders and optionholders. Finally, projections of future cash flow statements prepared under SFAS No. 95 overstate cash flows to current equityholders by the pretax value of projected option grants. We show that these distortions can be avoided simply by accounting for options as liabilities at grant and thereafter recognizing changes in option values (similar to the accounting for stock appreciation rights). Our analysis of stock option accounting leads to two, more general implications: (1) all securities other than common shares should be treated as liabilities, thereby simplifying the equity versus liability distinction, and (2) these liabilities should be recorded at fair values, thereby obviating the need to consider earnings dilution.

Discretionary Risk Disclosures

2003 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn N. Jorgensen ◽  
Michael T. Kirschenheiter
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Risk Disclosure ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Partial Disclosure ◽  
Future Cash Flows

We model managers' equilibrium strategies for voluntarily disclosing information about their firm's risk. We consider a multifirm setting in which the variance of each firm's future cash flow is uncertain. A manager can disclose, at a cost, this variance before offering the firm for sale in a competitive stock market with risk-averse investors. In our partial disclosure equilibrium, managers voluntarily disclose if their firm has a low variance of future cash flows, but withhold the information if their firm has highly variable future cash flows. We establish how the manager's discretionary risk disclosure affects the firm's share price, expected stock returns, and beta, within the framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We show that whereas one manager's discretionary disclosure of his firm's risk does not affect other firms' share prices, it does affect the other firms' betas. Also, we demonstrate that a disclosing firm has lower risk premium and beta ex post than a nondisclosing firm. Finally, we show that ex ante, the expected risk premium and expected beta of each firm are higher under a mandatory risk disclosure regime than in the partial disclosure equilibrium that arises under a voluntary disclosure regime.

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