scholarly journals Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Songer ◽  
Melanie Delion ◽  
Alex Biggs ◽  
Qiongyu Huang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Giant Panda ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Panda Habitat ◽  
General Climate

Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs) to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

Giant panda habitat networks and conservation: is this species adequately protected?

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 531 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gong ◽  
Z. Yang ◽  
W. Yang ◽  
Y. Song
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Giant Panda ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Reserve Network ◽  
Conservation Network ◽  
Panda Habitat

Context. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are restricted to six mountain ranges at the edge of the Tibetan Plateau. One of these ranges, the Qinling Mountains, contains the highest density of giant pandas and is home to ~20% of those remaining in the wild. Commercial logging and other developments have resulted in habitat fragmentation, and an efficient and powerful conservation network is now needed for the species in this area. Aims. This study sought to assess giant panda habitat and estimate the carrying capacity of this reserve network. Our goal was to improve the function and carrying capacity of the reserve network and facilitate population growth and gene flow among subpopulations of giant pandas. Methods. We use habitat suitability models to assess the efficacy of conservation networks. With estimation of carrying capacity by home range, we can reveal issues facing reserves and populations of endangered species they contain. Here, we define key habitat, linkages, corridors and overall connectivity and then use habitat network modelling and spatial analyses to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas across their Qinling Mountains stronghold. Key results. We found that 91% of giant panda sightings were in suitable or marginally suitable habitat. The total area of giant panda habitat present in the Qinling Mountains is ~1600 km2 fragmented across four key habitat blocks by national roads or other human activity. The current nature reserve network encompasses 71% of available suitable habitat and 62% of available marginal habitat, meaning a significant proportion of panda habitat remains outside the current conservation network. We found that giant panda reserves across this region are not equal in their carrying capacity; some reserves contain an overabundance of giant pandas and the wellbeing of these populations are in doubt. Conclusions. Our results highlight the potential risk of high densities and bamboo flowering events to the safety of giant pandas. With poor population size and heavy isolation, small populations will not persist without translocation. Implication. Redrawing the reserve network to correct localised problems may improve the function of the giant panda protection system, build capacity in the reserve network, and decrease human–wildlife conflict. We propose a new reserve and adjustment of the borders and region for three reserves.

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7621-7655 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

scholarly journals Immune profiles of male giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) during breeding season

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
haibo shen ◽  
Caiwu Li ◽  
Ming He ◽  
Yan Huang ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Breeding Season ◽  
Giant Panda ◽  
Expression Profiles ◽  
Killer Cell ◽  
Pattern Recognition Receptors ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Altered Expression ◽  
Immune Related Genes

Abstract Background: The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a threatened endemic Chinese species and a flagship species of national and global conservation concern. Life history theory proposes that reproduction and immunity can be mutually constraining and interrelated. Knowledge of immunity changes of male giant pandas during the breeding season is limited.Results: Here, we researched peripheral blood gene expression profiles associated with immunity. Thirteen captive giant pandas, ranging from 9 to 11 years old, were divided into two groups based on their reproductive status. We identified 318 up-regulated DEGs and 43 down-regulated DEGs, which were enriched in 87 GO terms and 6 KEGG pathways. Additionally, we obtained 45 immune-related genes with altered expression, mostly up-regulated, and identified four hub genes HSPA4, SUGT1, SOD1, and IL1B in PPI analysis. These 45 genes were related to pattern recognition receptors, autophagy, peroxisome, proteasome, natural killer cell, antigen processing and presentation. SUGT1 and IL1B were related to pattern recognition receptors. HSP90AA1 was the most up-regulated gene and is a member of heat shock protein 90 family. HSP90 contributes to the translocation of extracellular antigen. KLRD1 encodes CD94, whose complex is an inhibitor of the cytotoxic activity of NK cells, was down-regulated. IGIP, which has the capability of inducing IgA production by B cells, was down-regulated, suggesting low concentration of IgA in male giant pandas. Our results suggest that most immune-related genes were up-regulated and more related to innate immune than adaptive immune. Conclusions: Our results indicated that breeding male giant pandas presented an immunoenhancement in innate immunity, enhanced antigen presentation and processing in cellular immunity compared to non-breeding males. The humoral immunity of male giant pandas may show a tendency to decrease during the breeding season. This study will provide a foundation for further studies of immunity and reproduction in male giant pandas.

scholarly journals Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Masson-Delmotte ◽  
G. Dreyfus ◽  
P. Braconnot ◽  
S. Johnsen ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions

Abstract. Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP) and Antarctic (Dome C) ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice-core-based temperature reconstructions. In Antarctica, the CO2-induced warming lies clearly beyond the natural rhythm of temperature fluctuations. In Greenland, the CO2-induced warming is as fast or faster than the most rapid temperature shifts of the last ice age. The magnitude of polar temperature change in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 is comparable to the magnitude of the polar temperature change from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day. When forced by prescribed changes in ice sheet reconstructions and CO2 changes, climate models systematically underestimate the glacial-interglacial polar temperature change.

Anogenital gland secretions code for sex and age in the giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca

2004 ◽  
Vol 82 (10) ◽  
pp. 1596-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Yuan ◽  
Dingzhen Liu ◽  
Lixing Sun ◽  
Rongping Wei ◽  
Guiquan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Giant Panda ◽  
Fatty Acid Esters ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Analog Form ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Relative Abundances ◽  
Anogenital Gland Secretions ◽  
Acid Esters ◽  
Form Information

Anogenital gland secretions play a major role in chemical communication by giant pandas, Ailuropoda melanoleuca (David, 1869). We analyzed 45 samples of anogenital gland secretions collected from 24 captive pandas (5 male adults, 6 female adults, 6 male subadults, and 7 female subadults) by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The secretions contained over 95 compounds. Based on 56 common compounds (relative abundances >0.1%) shared by more than three individuals, we identified steroids, long-chain fatty acids, fatty-acid esters, aldehydes, alkanes, alkenes, amines, terpenes, and furans. The chemical composition of each secretion was individual-specific. Although none of these individual compounds was age- or sex-specific, the relative abundances of several compounds differed between males and females and between adults and subadults. This result shows that information about sex and age could be coded in analog form. Information about age but not gender could also be digitally coded by the presence or absence of some of the 56 compounds, in addition to the analog coding.

scholarly journals Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1929) ◽  
pp. 20200358
Author(s):  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Ronald R. Swaisgood ◽  
Megan A. Owen ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Wei Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Folmer Krikken ◽  
Sophie Lewis ◽  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Flavio Lehner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically-based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index, long-term observations of heat and drought, and eleven large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor two due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. Finally, we find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the ERA5 reanalysis, and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. The trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes and hence also likely underestimated. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean dipole and Southern Annular Mode. These factors are included in the analysis. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some, but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change.

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