scholarly journals An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Impact of MTG Candidate Infrared Sounding Mission on Regional Forecasts: System Development and Preliminary Results

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongli Wang ◽  
Xiang-Yu Huang ◽  
Yongsheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Regional Forecasts ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was designed and developed to assess the potential benefit of the Infrared Sounding on the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG-IRS) geostationary meteorological satellite system to regional forecasts. In the proposed OSSE framework, two different models, namely, the MM5 and WRF models, were used in a nature run and data assimilation experiments, respectively, to reduce the identical twin problem. The 5-day nature run, which included three convective storms that occurred during the period from 11 to 16 June 2002 over US Great Plains, was generated using MM5 with a 4 km. The simulated “conventional” observations and MTG-IRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, produced from the nature run, were then assimilated into the WRF model. Calibration experiments showed that assimilating real or simulated “conventional” observations yielded similar error statistics in analyses and forecasts, indicating that the developed OSSE system worked well. On average, the MTG-IRS retrieved profiles had positive impact on the analyses and forecasts. The analyses reduced the errors not only in the temperature and the humidity fields but in the horizontal wind fields as well. The forecast skills of these variables were improved up to 12 hours. The 18 h precipitation forecast accuracy was also increased.

A Hybrid ETKF–3DVAR Data Assimilation Scheme for the WRF Model. Part I: Observing System Simulation Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (12) ◽  
pp. 5116-5131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Dale M. Barker ◽  
Chris Snyder ◽  
Thomas M. Hamill
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Model Assumption ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Variational Minimization ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment

Abstract A hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (ETKF–3DVAR) system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is introduced. The system is based on the existing WRF 3DVAR. Unlike WRF 3DVAR, which utilizes a simple, static covariance model to estimate the forecast-error statistics, the hybrid system combines ensemble covariances with the static covariances to estimate the complex, flow-dependent forecast-error statistics. Ensemble covariances are incorporated by using the extended control variable method during the variational minimization. The ensemble perturbations are maintained by the computationally efficient ETKF. As an initial attempt to test and understand the newly developed system, both an observing system simulation experiment under the perfect model assumption (Part I) and the real observation experiment (Part II) were conducted. In these pilot studies, the WRF was run over the North America domain at a coarse grid spacing (200 km) to emphasize synoptic scales, owing to limited computational resources and the large number of experiments conducted. In Part I, simulated radiosonde wind and temperature observations were assimilated. The results demonstrated that the hybrid data assimilation method provided more accurate analyses than the 3DVAR. The horizontal distributions of the errors demonstrated the hybrid analyses had larger improvements over data-sparse regions than over data-dense regions. It was also found that the ETKF ensemble spread in general agreed with the root-mean-square background forecast error for both the first- and second-order measures. Given the coarse resolution, relatively sparse observation network, and perfect model assumption adopted in this part of the study, caution is warranted when extrapolating the results to operational applications.

Quantifying Snow Mass Mission Concept Trade-Offs Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Garnaud ◽  
Stéphane Bélair ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Bernard Bilodeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Snow Mass

Abstract Because of its location, Canada is particularly affected by snow processes and their impact on the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Yet, snow mass observations that are ongoing, global, frequent (1–5 days), and at high enough spatial resolution (kilometer scale) for assimilation within operational prediction systems are presently not available. Recently, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) partnered with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) to initiate a radar-focused snow mission concept study to define spaceborne technological solutions to this observational gap. In this context, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was performed to determine the impact of sensor configuration, snow water equivalent (SWE) retrieval performance, and snow wet/dry state on snow analyses from the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). The synthetic experiment shows that snow analyses are strongly sensitive to revisit frequency since more frequent assimilation leads to a more constrained land surface model. The greatest reduction in spatial (temporal) bias is from a 1-day revisit frequency with a 91% (93%) improvement. Temporal standard deviation of the error (STDE) is mostly reduced by a greater retrieval accuracy with a 65% improvement, while a 1-day revisit reduces the temporal STDE by 66%. The inability to detect SWE under wet snow conditions is particularly impactful during the spring meltdown, with an increase in spatial RMSE of up to 50 mm. Wet snow does not affect the domain-wide annual maximum SWE nor the timing of end-of-season snowmelt timing in this case, indicating that radar measurements, although uncertain during melting events, are very useful in adding skill to snow analyses.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Surface-Based Boundary Layer Profiler Observations during a Cool-Season Weather Event Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment. Part I: Analysis Impact

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
pp. 2309-2326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
Daniel C. Hartung ◽  
David D. Turner ◽  
Ralph A. Petersen ◽  
Wayne F. Feltz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Moisture Profile ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this study, an Observing System Simulation Experiment was used to examine how the assimilation of temperature, water vapor, and wind profiles from a potential array of ground-based remote sensing boundary layer profiling instruments impacts the accuracy of atmospheric analyses when using an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system. Remote sensing systems evaluated during this study include the Doppler wind lidar (DWL), Raman lidar (RAM), microwave radiometer (MWR), and the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). The case study tracked the evolution of several extratropical weather systems that occurred across the contiguous United States during 7–8 January 2008. Overall, the results demonstrate that using networks of high-quality temperature, wind, and moisture profile observations of the lower troposphere has the potential to improve the accuracy of wintertime atmospheric analyses over land. The impact of each profiling system was greatest in the lower and middle troposphere on the variables observed or retrieved by that instrument; however, some minor improvements also occurred in the unobserved variables and in the upper troposphere, particularly when RAM observations were assimilated. The best analysis overall was achieved when DWL wind profiles and temperature and moisture observations from the RAM, AERI, or MWR were assimilated simultaneously, which illustrates that both mass and momentum observations are necessary to improve the analysis accuracy.

A comparison between 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR methods for the simulation of a severe weather event in Central Italy. Preliminary results.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Mazzarella ◽  
Rossella Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Severe Weather Event

<p>Nowadays, the use of 4D-VAR assimilation technique has been investigated in several scientific papers with the aim of improving the localization and timing of precipitation in complex orography regions. The results show the positive impact in rainfall forecast but, the need to resolve the tangent linear and adjoint model makes the 4D-VAR computationally too expensive. Hence, it is used in operationally only in large forecast centres. To the aim of exploring a more reasonable method, a comparison between a cycling 3D-VAR, that needs less computational resources, and 4D-VAR techniques is performed for a severe weather event occurred in Central Italy. A cut-off low (992 hPa), located in western side of Sicily region, was associated with a strong south-easterly flow over Central Adriatic region, which supplied a large amount of warm and moist air. This mesoscale configuration, coupled with the Apennines mountain range that further increased the air column instability, produced heavy rainfall in Abruzzo region (Central Italy).</p><p>The numerical simulations are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In-situ surface and upper-air observations are assimilated in combination with radar reflectivity and radial velocity data over a high-resolution domain. Several experiments have been performed in order to evaluate the impact of 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR in the precipitation forecast. In addition, a statistical analysis has been carried out to objectively compare the simulations. Two different verification approaches are used: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Fraction Skill Score (FSS). Both statistical scores are calculated for different threshold values in the study area and in the sub-regions where the maximum rainfall occurred.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Increased Frequency of Rawinsonde Observations on Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1823-1834 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Privé ◽  
R. M. Errico ◽  
K.-S. Tai
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cycle Times ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Analysis Quality

Abstract Most rawinsondes are launched once or twice daily, at 0000 and/or 1200 UTC; only a small number of the total rawinsonde observations are taken at 0600 and 1800 UTC (“off hour” cycle times). In this study, the variations of forecast and analysis quality between cycle times and the potential improvement of skill due to supplemental rawinsonde measurements at 0600 and 1800 UTC are tested in the framework of an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), is used with the GMAO OSSE setup for an experiment emulating the months of July and August with the 2011 observational network. The OSSE is run with and without supplemental rawinsonde observations at 0600 and 1800 UTC, and the differences in analysis error and forecast skill are quantified. The addition of supplemental rawinsonde observations results in significant improvement of analysis quality in the Northern Hemisphere for both the 0000/1200 and 0600/1800 UTC cycle times, with greater improvement for the off-hour times. Reduction of root-mean-square errors on the order of 1%–3% for wind and temperature is found at the 24- and 48-h forecast times. There is a slight improvement in Northern Hemisphere anomaly correlations at the 120-h forecast time.

scholarly journals A Study on Assimilation of CYGNSS Wind Speed Data for Tropical Convection during 2018 January MJO

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanli Li ◽  
John R. Mecikalski ◽  
Timothy J. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Specular Reflection ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Wind Speed Data ◽  
The Impact

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016. CYGNSS provides ocean surface wind speed retrieval along specular reflection tracks at an interval resolution of approximately 25 km. With a median revisit time of 2.8 h covering a ±35° latitude, CYGNSS can provide more frequent and accurate measurements of surface wind over the tropical oceans under heavy precipitation, especially within tropical cyclone cores and deep convection regions, than traditional scatterometers. In this study, CYGNSS v2.1 Level 2 wind speed data were assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system with hybrid 3- and 4-dimensional variational ensemble technology. Case studies were conducted to examine the impact of the CYGNSS data on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) Irving and a westerly wind burst (WWB) during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event over the Indian Ocean in early January 2018. The results indicate a positive impact of the CYGNSS data on the wind field. However, the impact from the CYGNSS data decreases rapidly within 4 h after data assimilation. Also, the influence of CYGNSS data only on precipitation forecast is found to be limited. The assimilation of CYGNSS data was further explored with an additional experiment in which CYGNSS data was combined with Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) hourly precipitation and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind vector and were assimilated into the WRF model. A significant positive impact was found on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts. The short-term forecast of wind and precipitation fields were also improved for both TC Irving and the WWB event when the combined satellite data was assimilated.

Impact of Assimilating Wind Profiling Radar Observations on Convection-Permitting Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts during SCMREX

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1271-1292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xubin Zhang ◽  
Yali Luo ◽  
Qilin Wan ◽  
Weiyu Ding ◽  
Jiaxiang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Partial Cycle

Abstract To improve the prediction of heavy rainfall in southern China during the prerainy season, horizontal wind data from wind profiling radars (WPRs) were assimilated in the partial-cycle data assimilation (DA) system based on a three-dimensional variational method. The analyses from the DA system are used as initial conditions for the convection-permitting Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) model. The impact of assimilating WPR data on the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in southern China was evaluated over the period of the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) in May 2014, by comparing the results of a control experiment with WPR data assimilated and a denial experiment without WPR data. The positive impact of WPR DA was significant on the forecasts of atmospheric variables in the vertical and diagnostic fields at the surface, especially those of surface wind fields in the 0–6-h range. The inclusion of WPR data also improved the QPF skill of light and heavy rainfall throughout the 12-h forecast period by reducing the predicted spurious precipitation (thereby alleviating overestimations and false alarms), with the largest improvement in 6-h heavy rainfall forecasts. WPR DA considerably alleviated the spinup problem, remarkably improving the QPF of heavy rainfall (especially extreme rainfall). The improved representation of wind and moisture at lower levels in the analyses due to WPR DA was the physical cause of the QPF improvement, as is illustrated using a case study.

scholarly journals Observing System Simulation Experiment to Reproduce Kelvin Wave in the Venus Atmosphere

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Norihiko Sugimoto ◽  
Yukiko Fujisawa ◽  
Mimo Shirasaka ◽  
Asako Hosono ◽  
Mirai Abe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Wind Velocity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
Venus Atmosphere

Planetary-scale 4-day Kelvin-type waves at the cloud top of the Venus atmosphere have been reported from the 1980s, and their significance for atmospheric dynamics has been pointed out. However, these waves have not been reproduced in Venus atmospheric general circulation models (VGCMs). Recently, horizontal winds associated with the planetary-scale waves at the cloud top have been obtained from cloud images taken by cameras onboard Venus orbiters, which could enable us to clarify the structure and roles of Kelvin-type waves. In order to examine this possibility, our team carried out an idealized observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) with a data assimilation system which we developed. The wind velocity data provided by a CCSR/NIES (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies) VGCM where equatorial Kelvin-type waves were assumed below the cloud bottom was used as idealized observations. Results show that 4-day planetary-scale Kelvin-type waves are successfully reproduced if the wind velocity between 15° S and 15° N latitudes is assimilated every 6 h at 70 km altitude. It is strongly suggested that the Kelvin-type waves could be reproduced and investigated by the data assimilation with the horizontal wind data derived from Akatsuki ultraviolet images. The present results also contribute to planning future missions for understanding planetary atmospheres.

scholarly journals A Severe Weather Quick Observing System Simulation Experiment (QuickOSSE) of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) Superconstellations

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (2) ◽  
pp. 637-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mark Leidner ◽  
Thomas Nehrkorn ◽  
John Henderson ◽  
Marikate Mountain ◽  
Tom Yunck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Navigation Satellite System ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Navigation Satellite ◽  
Global Navigation ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultations (RO) over the last 10 years have proved to be a valuable and essentially unbiased data source for operational global numerical weather prediction. However, the existing sampling coverage is too sparse in both space and time to support forecasting of severe mesoscale weather. In this study, the case study or quick observing system simulation experiment (QuickOSSE) framework is used to quantify the impact of vastly increased numbers of GNSS RO profiles on mesoscale weather analysis and forecasting. The current study focuses on a severe convective weather event that produced both a tornado and flash flooding in Oklahoma on 31 May 2013. The WRF Model is used to compute a realistic and faithful depiction of reality. This 2-km “nature run” (NR) serves as the “truth” in this study. The NR is sampled by two proposed constellations of GNSS RO receivers that would produce 250 thousand and 2.5 million profiles per day globally. These data are then assimilated using WRF and a 24-member, 18-km-resolution, physics-based ensemble Kalman filter. The data assimilation is cycled hourly and makes use of a nonlocal, excess phase observation operator for RO data. The assimilation of greatly increased numbers of RO profiles produces improved analyses, particularly of the lower-tropospheric moisture fields. The forecast results suggest positive impacts on convective initiation. Additional experiments should be conducted for different weather scenarios and with improved OSSE systems.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document