scholarly journals Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxiao Zhang ◽  
Congrong Guo ◽  
Shenghui Yi
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Chance Constraint ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Profit Rate ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Unexpected Events ◽  
Domain Experts ◽  
Social Reputation ◽  
Flight Capacity

This paper considers an airline overbooking problem of a new single-leg flight with discount fare. Due to the absence of historical data of no-shows for a new flight, and various uncertain human behaviors or unexpected events which causes that a few passengers cannot board their aircraft on time, we fail to obtain the probability distribution of no-shows. In this case, the airlines have to invite some domain experts to provide belief degree of no-shows to estimate its distribution. However, human beings often overestimate unlikely events, which makes the variance of belief degree much greater than that of the frequency. If we still regard the belief degree as a subjective probability, the derived results will exceed our expectations. In order to deal with this uncertainty, the number of no-shows of new flight is assumed to be an uncertain variable in this paper. Given the chance constraint of social reputation, an overbooking model with discount fares is developed to maximize the profit rate based on uncertain programming theory. Finally, the analytic expression of the optimal booking limit is obtained through a numerical example, and the results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the optimal booking limit is affected by flight capacity, discount, confidence level, and parameters of the uncertainty distribution significantly.

scholarly journals A New Formula for Calculating Uncertainty Distribution of Function of Uncertain Variables

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2429
Author(s):  
Yuxing Jia ◽  
Yuer Lv ◽  
Zhigang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Monotone Function ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Mathematical Tool ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
New Formula ◽  
Theory Uncertainty

As a mathematical tool to rationally handle degrees of belief in human beings, uncertainty theory has been widely applied in the research and development of various domains, including science and engineering. As a fundamental part of uncertainty theory, uncertainty distribution is the key approach in the characterization of an uncertain variable. This paper shows a new formula to calculate the uncertainty distribution of strictly monotone function of uncertain variables, which breaks the habitual thinking that only the former formula can be used. In particular, the new formula is symmetrical to the former formula, which shows that when it is too intricate to deal with a problem using the former formula, the problem can be observed from another perspective by using the new formula. New ideas may be obtained from the combination of uncertainty theory and symmetry.

scholarly journals Analisis Risiko Finansial Dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Pt. Phase Delta Control)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Atikah Aghdhi Pratiwi ◽  
Rosa Rilantiana
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Simulation Research ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
A Company

AbstractBasically, the purpose of a company is make a profit and enrich the owners of the company. This is manifested by development and achievement of good performance, both in financial and operational perspective. But in reality, not all of companies can achieve good performance. One of them is because exposure of risk. This could threaten achievement of the objectives and existence of the company. Therefore, companies need to have an idea related to possible condition and financial projection in future periods that are affected by risk. One of the possible method is Monte Carlo Simulation. Research will be conducted at PT. Phase Delta Control with historical data related to production/sales volume, cost of production and selling price. Historical data will be used as Monte Carlo Simulation with random numbers that describe probability of each risk variables describing reality. The main result is estimated profitability of PT. Phase Delta Control in given period. Profit estimation will be uncertain variable due to some uncertainty

scholarly journals Optimal Pricing in Recycling and Remanufacturing in Uncertain Environments

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3199
Author(s):  
Guangzhou Yan ◽  
Yaodong Ni ◽  
Xiangfeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Optimal Pricing ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Uncertain Environments ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Equivalent Models ◽  
Fashion Products ◽  
Proposed Model

With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, firms pay much more attention to the recycling and remanufacturing of used products. This paper addresses the problem of the optimal pricing in recycling and remanufacturing in uncertain environments. We consider two strategies of remanufacturing products, by which a recycled product can be repaired and sold as a second-hand product or dissembled into materials for production of new products according to its quality. As the market demand for products and the quantities of recycled products, such as fashion products and mobile phones, usually lack historical data, this paper adopts uncertainty theory to depict uncertainty in establishing the pricing model. An uncertain programming model and a series of crisp equivalent models are proposed under the assumptions of particular uncertainty distribution. Finally, numerical experiments are performed to show how various parameters influence the results of the proposed model.

CHANCE DISCOVERY IN STOCK INDEX OPTION AND FUTURES ARBITRAGE

2005 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 435-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDWARD TSANG ◽  
SHERI MARKOSE ◽  
HAKAN ER
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Domain Experts ◽  
Programming Tool ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Computer Scientists ◽  
The One ◽  
Index Option

The prices of the option and futures of a stock both reflect the market's expectation of futures changes of the stock's price. Their prices normally align with each other within a limited window. When they do not, arbitrage opportunities arise: an investor who spots the misalignment will be able to buy (sell) options on the one hand, and sell (buy) futures on the other and make risk-free profits. Historical data suggest that option and futures prices on the LIFFE Market do not align occasionally. Arbitrage chances are rare. Besides, they last for seconds only before the market adjusts itself. The challenge is not only to discover such chances, but to discover them ahead of other arbitragers. In the past, we have introduced EDDIE as a genetic programming tool for forecasting. This paper describes EDDIE-ARB, a specialization of EDDIE, for forecasting arbitrage opportunities. As a tool, EDDIE-ARB was designed to enable economists and computer scientists to work together to identify relevant independent variables. Trained on historical data, EDDIE-ARB was capable of discovering rules with high precision. Tested on out-of-sample data, EDDIE-ARB out-performed a naive ex ante rule, which reacted only when misalignments were detected. This establishes EDDIE-ARB as a promising tool for arbitrage chances discovery. It also demonstrates how EDDIE brings domain experts and computer scientists together.

scholarly journals Dependent-Chance Goal Programming for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiying Guo ◽  
Honghua Shi ◽  
Xiaosheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Uncertain Measure ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Objective Event ◽  
Priority Structure

Without sufficient data, consulting experts is a good way to quantify unknown parameters in water resources management which will result in human uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce a new tool-uncertainty theory to deal with such uncertainty which is treated as uncertain variable with uncertainty distribution. And a dependent-chance goal programming (DCGP) model is provided for water resources management under such circumstance. In the model uncertain measure is used to measure possibility that an event will occur which is maximized by minimizing the deviation (positive or negative deviation) from target of objective event under a given priority structure. In the end, the developed model is applied to a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. The result obtained contributes to the desired water-allocation schemes for decision-markers.

6. The development of the materialist theory of history

2018 ◽  
pp. 39-45
Author(s):  
Peter Singer
Keyword(s):  
Human Activity ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
World History ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Practical Activity ◽  
The World ◽  
Theory Of History ◽  
Materialist Theory

For Marx the unity of theory and practice meant the resolution of theoretical problems by practical activity. ‘The development of the materialist theory of history’ examines how Marx came upon his theory of world history in which practical human activity, rather than thought, plays the crucial role. At this point in his life, Marx starts to make more use of historical data and less of abstract philosophical reasoning about the way the world should be, but his interest in alienation persists. The materialist conception of history tells us that humans are completely subject to forces they do not comprehend and are unable to control. These forces are the productive powers of human beings themselves.

A new measure of indeterminacy for uncertain variables with application to portfolio selection

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Jin Liu ◽  
Jinsheng Xie ◽  
Hamed Ahmadzade ◽  
Mehran Farahikia
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Selection Problems ◽  
Exponential Entropy

Entropy is a measure for characterizing indeterminacy of a random variable or an uncertain variable with respect to probability theory and uncertainty theory, respectively. In order to characterize indeterminacy of uncertain variables, the concept of exponential entropy for uncertain variables is proposed. For computing the exponential entropy for uncertain variables, a formula is derived via inverse uncertainty distribution. As an application of exponential entropy, portfolio selection problems for uncertain returns are optimized via exponential entropy-mean models. For better understanding, several examples are provided.

scholarly journals Predicting Fatalities in Air Accidents using CHAID XGBoost Generalized Linear Model Neural Network and Ensemble Models of Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3S) ◽  
pp. 35-39
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Generalized Linear Model ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Random Trees ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Hidden Layer ◽  
Learning Principles

The study examines the historical data of about 4700 air crashes all over the world since the first recorded air crash of 1908. Given the immense impact on human beings as well as companies, the study aimed at utilizing Machine Learning principles for predicting fatalities. The train-test partition used was 75-25. Employing the IBM SPSS Modeler, the machine learning models used included CHAID model, Neural Network, Generalized Linear Model, XGBoost, Random Trees and the Ensemble model to predict fatalities in air crashes. The best results (90.6% accuracy) were achieved through Neural Network with one hidden layer. The results presented also include comparison of the predicted versus observed results for the test data.

scholarly journals Anticipatory Bail and Criminal Justice System in India

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Prof. Pradeep Singh
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Legal Regime ◽  
Personal Liberty ◽  
Social Reputation ◽  
The Social ◽  
Vested Interests

Social reputation and personal liberty are two important things in life human beings which are most dear and most respected. Whenever any person has enmity with another person, he tries to affect the social reputation and personal liberty of later person and usually for the purpose criminal justice system is misused. Vested interests file the false case, thereby, the alleged person may be arrested and kept in custody which may cause a loss of reputation and personal liberty of the alleged person. Such misuse of the criminal justice system is a reality. Therefore, it is the responsibility of the criminal justice system itself to protect innocent persons falsely alleged in a criminal case. Indian criminal justice system has prescribed anticipatory bail to protect the falsely alleged person. This article will analyze the legal regime provided in the Indian criminal justice system about anticipatory bail.

SOME PROPERTIES OF CONTINUOUS UNCERTAIN MEASURE

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (03) ◽  
pp. 419-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
XIN GAO
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Critical Values ◽  
Uncertain Measure ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Convergence Theorems ◽  
Basic Properties

In this paper, we discuss some properties in uncertainty theory when uncertain measure is continuous. Firstly, the judgement conditions of continuous uncertain measure are proposed. Secondly, basic properties of uncertainty distribution and critical values of uncertain variable are proved. Finally, the convergence theorems for expected value are discussed.

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