scholarly journals Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Neng-pu Yang ◽  
Mei Han ◽  
Shi-yong Chen ◽  
Xiao-hua Liu ◽  
Liu-jiang Kang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Transport Process ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cause Analysis ◽  
Research On Evaluation ◽  
Dangerous Goods ◽  
Fuzzy Probabilities

This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

Study on Risk Assessment Method of Water Bursting Disaster in Railway Tunnel

2011 ◽  
Vol 90-93 ◽  
pp. 2408-2413
Author(s):  
Cheng Liang Wang ◽  
Ming Zhou Bai ◽  
Xing Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Karst Water ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Information Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Railway Tunnel ◽  
Geological Disasters ◽  
Water Bursting

Karst Water Bursting in Railway Tunnel is the main content of tunnel risk evaluation，there are lots of empirical factors in the actual work. Through the investigation on site, this study analyses Karst Tunnel on many respects, establishes the index system of venture evaluation on Karst Water Bursting Geological Disasters. Moreover, the concept of fuzzy information analysis is introduced to establish the fuzzy information analysis model, on the basis of information extraction of a large amount of geological disasters of Karst water bursting in Railway Tunnel, in which applied hierarchy analysis method to determine the weight of each index. Risk assessment on typical operating point shows that the risk evaluation method of fuzzy information can correctly assess the Karst water bursting disasters in railway tunnel.

Risk Assessment of Relay Protection Setting Value in Power Plant

2013 ◽  
Vol 373-375 ◽  
pp. 1345-1348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zong Jiang Mu ◽  
Yan Xu ◽  
Shao Bo Yan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Relay Protection ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Protection Device ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
Risk Assessment And Analysis

Power plant relay protection setting value of the hidden harm causes of relay protection device is not correct, safe and stable operation of the power plant. In this paper, from the angle of the safe operation of power plant, the hidden danger to plant with the protection setting is studied and then the risk evaluation method of power plant relay protection setting values of hidden trouble is proposed. From the power plant relay protection setting value considering two aspects of probability and consequences of potential outbreak of different values, value potential risk is considered, and of a certain power plant in Hubei was made the risk assessment and analysis, in order to verify the theoretical rationality and accuracy.

Floodwater Utilization Integrated Risk Evaluation Model Based on D-S Evidential Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 599 ◽  
pp. 787-794
Author(s):  
Yuan Xiang Zhao ◽  
Yan Min Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Floodwater Utilization ◽  
Risk Evaluation Model

According to more and more serious problems of water scarcity, water pollution and deterioration of water environment in homeland, floodwater utilization becomes an important content in flood management and a critical solution for above problems. However, because of the uncertainty and subjective factor in the hydrology and water resources systems, floodwater utilization is a risk decision-making and the evaluation on the risk reasonably becomes an important decision-making reasoning problem. Traditional risk evaluation method considers uncertainty of things, but has little study on incompleteness of things and uncertainty of human’s subjective decision. An integrated risk evaluation model of floodwater utilization is presented based on D-S theory which can solve these problems successfully and with a case study, some benefit conclusions are provided.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of An Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide Disaster Chain by Bayesian Network and Newmark Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Han ◽  
Qing Ma ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Yichen Zhang ◽  
Jiquan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Permanent Displacement ◽  
Earthquake Disaster ◽  
Disaster Chain ◽  
Landslide Disaster

Severe natural disasters and related secondary disasters are a huge menace to society. Currently, it is difficult to identify risk formation mechanisms and quantitatively evaluate the risks associated with disaster chains; thus, there is a need to further develop relevant risk assessment methods. In this research, we propose an earthquake disaster chain risk evaluation method that couples Bayesian network and Newmark models that are based on natural hazard risk formation theory with the aim of identifying the influence of earthquake disaster chains. This new method effectively considers two risk elements: hazard and vulnerability, and hazard analysis, which includes chain probability analysis and hazard intensity analysis. The chain probability of adjacent disasters was obtained from the Bayesian network model, and the permanent displacement that was applied to represent the potential hazard intensity was calculated by the Newmark model. To validate the method, the Changbai Mountain volcano earthquake–collapse–landslide disaster chain was selected as a case study. The risk assessment results showed that the high-and medium-risk zones were predominantly located within a 10 km radius of Tianchi, and that other regions within the study area were mainly associated with very low-to low-risk values. The verified results of the reported method showed that the area of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.817, which indicates that the method is very effective for earthquake disaster chain risk recognition and assessment.

Collapse risk evaluation method on Bayesian network prediction model and engineering application

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Jing WANG ◽  
Shucai LI ◽  
Liping LI ◽  
Shaoshuai SHI ◽  
Zhenhao XU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Network Prediction

scholarly journals Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network of Oil Wharf Handling Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Hou ◽  
Peng Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Safety Level

In order to make the risk assessment method of oil wharf handling more reasonable, basic data calibration method more accurate, and assessment findings more objective, the fuzzy weights of the relative probability of basic events are calibrated by ANP decision-making (Analytic Network Process). ANP decision-making is appropriate for reflecting the dependence between the basic events and the feedback relationship. The calibration value is used as the probability value of each basic event. Based on the fault tree model, the relationship between the accidents caused by the Bayesian network is constructed, and the important degree of the basic events is quantitatively evaluated. The case focuses on wharf handling gasoline fire and explosions, using ANP method to calibrate probability, and analyzing and sorting the structural importance, the probability importance, and critical degree of each basic event through forward and backward reasoning. The results showed that the evaluation model can better characterize the effect of the basic events on the top events, which can be targeted to identify security weaknesses in oil wharf handling process. It has some practical significance for finding security risks and improving working conditions and the overall system safety level.

scholarly journals Distribution Network Risk Assessment Using Multicriteria Fuzzy Influence Diagram

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Circuit Breaker ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Influence Diagram ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
Fuzzy Probabilities ◽  
Operational Issues ◽  
The Impact

Risk assessment of distribution assets is one of the most important factors in the process of network development or maintenance planning decision-making. The process of decision-making is faced with uncertainties, involving technical, financial, safety, environmental, and other operational issues that make standard risk assessment techniques insufficient. Probabilistic uncertainties require appropriate mathematical modeling and quantification when predicting future state of the nature or the value of certain parameters. The paper is proposing a new methodology for the multicriteria risk assessment of the distribution network assets, based on influence diagrams and fuzzy probabilities. Influence diagram has been used to determine all relevant factors concerning risks and their interdependencies are depicted. Fuzzy probabilities are represented by triangular fuzzy numbers with constraints on feasibility of elicited probabilities. This methodology enables the decision process in uncertain environment, with the impact evaluation of each particular distribution asset, or the asset component. The methodology is illustrated on the example of a distribution substation circuit breaker maintenance strategy selection.

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