scholarly journals Risk Assessment of An Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide Disaster Chain by Bayesian Network and Newmark Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Han ◽  
Qing Ma ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Yichen Zhang ◽  
Jiquan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Permanent Displacement ◽  
Earthquake Disaster ◽  
Disaster Chain ◽  
Landslide Disaster

Severe natural disasters and related secondary disasters are a huge menace to society. Currently, it is difficult to identify risk formation mechanisms and quantitatively evaluate the risks associated with disaster chains; thus, there is a need to further develop relevant risk assessment methods. In this research, we propose an earthquake disaster chain risk evaluation method that couples Bayesian network and Newmark models that are based on natural hazard risk formation theory with the aim of identifying the influence of earthquake disaster chains. This new method effectively considers two risk elements: hazard and vulnerability, and hazard analysis, which includes chain probability analysis and hazard intensity analysis. The chain probability of adjacent disasters was obtained from the Bayesian network model, and the permanent displacement that was applied to represent the potential hazard intensity was calculated by the Newmark model. To validate the method, the Changbai Mountain volcano earthquake–collapse–landslide disaster chain was selected as a case study. The risk assessment results showed that the high-and medium-risk zones were predominantly located within a 10 km radius of Tianchi, and that other regions within the study area were mainly associated with very low-to low-risk values. The verified results of the reported method showed that the area of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.817, which indicates that the method is very effective for earthquake disaster chain risk recognition and assessment.

Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling

2012 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeng-Wen Lin ◽  
Cheng-Wu Chen ◽  
Cheng-Yi Peng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Potential Hazard

scholarly journals Hazard Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Chains Based on a Bayesian Network Model and ArcGIS

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Han ◽  
Jiquan Zhang ◽  
Yichen Zhang ◽  
Qing Ma ◽  
Si Alu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Uncertainty Reasoning ◽  
Earthquake Disaster ◽  
Disaster Chain

The impacts of earthquakes and secondary disasters on ecosystems and the environment are attracting increasing global attention. Development of uncertainty reasoning models offers a chance to research these complex correlations. The primary aim of this research was to construct a disaster chain hazard assessment model that combines a Bayesian Network model and the ArcGIS program software for Changbai Mountain, China, an active volcano with a spate of reported earthquakes, collapses, and landslide events. Furthermore, the probability obtained by the Bayesian Networks was used to determine the disaster chain probability and hazard intensity of the earthquake events, while ArcGIS was used to produce the disaster chain hazard map. The performance of the Bayesian Network model was measured by error rate and scoring rules. The confirmation of the outcomes of the disaster chain hazard assessment model shows that the model demonstrated good predictive performance on the basis of the area under the curve, which was 0.7929. From visual inspection of the produced earthquake disaster chain hazard map, highly hazardous zones are located within a 15 km radius from the Tianchi center, while the northern and the western parts of the studied area are characterized mainly by “very low” to “low” hazard values.

scholarly journals Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Neng-pu Yang ◽  
Mei Han ◽  
Shi-yong Chen ◽  
Xiao-hua Liu ◽  
Liu-jiang Kang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Transport Process ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cause Analysis ◽  
Research On Evaluation ◽  
Dangerous Goods ◽  
Fuzzy Probabilities

This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

scholarly journals Penggunaan Job Hazard Analysis dalam Identifikasi Risiko Keselamatan Kerja pada Pengrajin Logam

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 510-519
Author(s):  
Al Asyhar Aahyu Azady ◽  
Evi Widowati ◽  
Sri Ratna Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Occupational Diseases ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Potential Danger ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Workplace Injuries ◽  
Work Accident ◽  
And Control

Abstrak Setiap tempat kerja selalu mempunyai risiko kemungkinan terjadinya kecelakaan dan penyakit akibat kerja. Pada tahun 2013 telah terjadi 406 kasus kecelakaan kerja di Kabupaten Boyolali, 372 pekerja (91,6%) berhasil sembuh, 25 pekerja (6,1%) sementara tidak mampu bekerja, 4 pekerja (0,9%) mengalami cacat, dan 5 pekerja (1,2%) meninggal dunia. Insiden kecelakaan dan cedera di tempat kerja dapat dikurangi dengan penggunaan Job Hazard Analysis. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui potensi bahaya serta pengendalian yang tepat pada industri logam UD. A&D dengan metode Job Hazard Analysis. Jenis penelitian ini adalah deskriptif kualitatif dengan pendekatan observasional. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat 46 bahaya dan 82 risiko yang teridentifikasi. Hasil penilaian risiko terdapat 24 (29,6%) risiko rendah, 27 (32,9%) risiko sedang dan risiko tinggi berjumlah 31 (37,8%). Hasil penilaian dan pengendalian risiko dirancang dalam bentuk form Job Hazard Analysis. Kesimpulan penelitian ini adalah potensi bahaya yang ada belum dilakukan pengendalian secara optimal.   Abstract Each workplace always has a risk of possible accidents and occupational diseases. In 2013 there were 406 work accident cases in Boyolali District, 372 workers (91.6%) recovered, 25 workers (6.1%) were unable to work, 4 workers (0.9%) were disabled, and 5 workers (1.2%) died. Incidents of accidents and workplace injuries can be reduced by the use of Job Hazard Analysis. This research was conducted in 2018. The purpose of this research is to know the potential danger and proper control on UD metal industry. A & D with Job Hazard Analysis method. The type of this research is descriptive qualitative with observational approach.The results showed 46 hazards and 82 identified risks. Risk assessment results were 24 (29.6%) low risk, 27 (32.9%) medium and high risk 31 (37.8%). The results of risk assessment and control are designed in the form of Job Hazard Analysis form. The conclusion of this research is the potential hazard that has not been done optimally.  

Methods of risk assessment in forecasting the consequences of accidents at pipeline transport facilities

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 663-673
Author(s):  
Vladislav N. Slepnev ◽  
◽  
Alexander F. Maksimenko ◽  
Elena V. Glebova ◽  
Alla Т. Volokhina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Main Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Transport ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Expert Evaluation Method

The choice of risk assessment procedure is one of the essential stages of efficient structuring of processes on prevention, localization and elimination of the consequences of accidents at main pipeline transport facilities. The authors analyzed themed publications and regulatory documents, governing procedures of risk assessment and forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents, and defined main problems in this area. Procedure for the risk assessment of accidents at main pipeline facilities was developed, the basis of which is the expert evaluation method. The procedure includes the determination of the main criteria for the assessment the probability of accident initiation and development and the evaluation of the severity of its consequences, an expert evaluation of criteria significance, their classification, and creation of a rating for hazardous pipeline sections. The application of the procedure application allows to specify the list of facilities that require high priority forecasting of accidents consequences, thus to optimize the distribution of resources and the overall increase of efficiency in planning while defining forces and special technical devices, necessary for containment and rectification of emergencies. Expert evaluation method application allows considering the specifics of certain enterprises, their technical and technological peculiarities, thereby increasing forecasting accuracy.

Research on Oil Depot Safety Evaluation Based on Dow Chemical Fire and Explosion Index Assessment Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 748 ◽  
pp. 1256-1261
Author(s):  
Shou Hui He ◽  
Han Hua Zhu ◽  
Shi Dong Fan ◽  
Quan Wen
Keyword(s):  
Production Management ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Theoretical Ground ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Process Unit ◽  
Safety Production ◽  
Fire And Explosion

At the present time, the Dow Chemical Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) is a kind of risk index evaluation method that is comprehensively used in evaluating potential hazard, area of exposure, expected losses in case of fire and explosion, etc. As the research object to oil depot storage tank area, this article ultimately confirms establishing appropriate pattern of process unit as well as reasonable safety precautions compensating method, in order to insure the reasonableness of evaluating result, by means of selecting process unit, confirming material factor and compensating safety precautions, using F&EI method. This can provide the basis for theoretical ground in aspect of oil depot development and safety production management.

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