Response of Hydrological Drought to Meteorological Drought under the Influence of Large Reservoir

Based on monthly streamflow and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 in the Jinjiang River Basin of China, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were used to represent meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. The response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought under the influence of Shanmei reservoir was investigated. The results indicate that SPI and SSI have a decreasing trend during recent several decades. Monthly scales of SSI series have a significant decreasing trend from November to the following February and a significant increasing trend from May to July at Shilong hydrological station. There are three significant periodic variations with a cycle of 6-7 years, 11-12 years, and 20-21 years for annual scales of SSI series. SPI series have the same periodic variations before the 1980s, but they have not been synchronous with SSI since the 1980s at Shilong due to influences of Shanmei reservoir, especially at the periodic variations of 20-21 years. The variation of the lag time of hydrological drought in response to meteorological drought is significant at the seasonal scale. The lag time of hydrological drought to meteorological drought extends one month on average in spring, summer, and autumn but about three months in winter.

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The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (9) ◽

pp. 4649-4665 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Anouk I. Gevaert ◽

Ted I. E. Veldkamp ◽

Philip J. Ward

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Propagation Time ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Land Surface Models ◽

Surface Models

Abstract. Drought is a natural hazard that occurs at many temporal and spatial scales and has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts across the globe. The impacts of drought change as drought evolves from precipitation deficits to deficits in soil moisture or streamflow. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. We did this by cross-correlating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) against standardized indices (SIs) of soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow from an ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by a consistent meteorological dataset. Drought propagation is strongly related to climate types, occurring at sub-seasonal timescales in tropical climates and at up to multi-annual timescales in continental and arid climates. Winter droughts are usually related to longer SPI accumulation periods than summer droughts, especially in continental and tropical savanna climates. The difference between the seasons is likely due to winter snow cover in the former and distinct wet and dry seasons in the latter. Model structure appears to play an important role in model variability, as drought propagation to soil moisture drought is slower in land surface models (LSMs) than in global hydrological models, but propagation to hydrological drought is faster in land surface models than in global hydrological models. The propagation time from SPI to hydrological drought in the models was evaluated against observed data at 127 in situ streamflow stations. On average, errors between observed and modeled drought propagation timescales are small and the model ensemble mean is preferred over the use of a single model. Nevertheless, there is ample opportunity for improvement as substantial differences in drought propagation are found at 10 % of the study sites. A better understanding and representation of drought propagation in models may help improve seasonal drought forecasting as well as constrain drought variability under future climate scenarios.

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Analysing 21st century meteorological and hydrological drought events in Slovakia

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics ◽

10.2478/johh-2018-0026 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 66 (4) ◽

pp. 393-403 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Miriam Fendeková ◽

Tobias Gauster ◽

Lívia Labudová ◽

Dana Vrablíková ◽

Zuzana Danáčová ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Extreme Values ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

River Basins ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Extreme Values Distribution ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Several quite severe droughts occurred in Europe in the 21st century; three of them (2003, 2012 and 2015) hit also Slovakia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used for assessment of meteorological drought occurrence. The research was established on discharge time series representing twelve river basins in Slovakia within the period 1981–2015. Sequent Peak Algorithm method based on fixed threshold, three parametric Weibull and generalized extreme values distribution GEV, factor and multiple regression analyses were employed to evaluate occurrence and parameters of hydrological drought in 2003, 2011–2012 and 2015, and the relationship among the water balance components. Results showed that drought parameters in evaluated river basins of Slovakia differed in respective years, most of the basins suffered more by 2003 and 2012 drought than by the 2015 one. Water balance components analysis for the entire period 1931–2016 showed that because of continuously increasing air temperature and balance evapotranspiration there is a decrease of runoff in the Slovak territory.

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TREND DETECTION OF METROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN NORTH OF IRAQ

Journal of Engineering and Sustainable Development ◽

10.31272/jeasd.25.3.7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 (3) ◽

pp. 60-73

Author(s):

Ihsan F. Hasan ◽

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Northern Region ◽

Trend Detection ◽

Precipitation Data ◽

Study Region ◽

Slope Estimator ◽

Mild Drought

This study presents an analysis of meteorological drought using multi time-scales of Standardized Precipitation Index SPI (6, 9 and 12 month), based on observed 49-year daily mean precipitation data records at 11 stations over the Northern region of Iraq. The detection of drought trends in results of SPI analysis was studied to identify whether there is any increase or decrease in the severity of drought at the selected meteorological Stations; Mann Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to detect statistically significant trends. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant decreasing trend of SPI time series at 5% significant level in most of the selected stations. Based on drought categories the meteorological drought in the study region can be classified as mild drought.

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Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.267 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lin Wang ◽

Jianyun Zhang ◽

Amgad Elmahdi ◽

Zhangkang Shu ◽

Yinghui Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Evolution Characteristics ◽

Hanjiang River ◽

Hydrological Droughts ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

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Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Northeastern China Using Multiple Indices

Water ◽

10.3390/w11010072 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 72 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Fengping Li ◽

Hongyan Li ◽

Wenxi Lu ◽

Guangxin Zhang ◽

Joo-Cheol Kim

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Data ◽

Z Score ◽

Predictive Values ◽

Daily Precipitation Data ◽

Precipitation Changes

Drought monitoring is one of the significant issues of water resources assessment. Multiple drought indices (DIs), including Percent of Normal (PN), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), statistical Z-Score, and Effective Drought Index (EDI) at 18 different timesteps were employed to evaluate the drought condition in Wuyuer River Basin (WRB), Northeast China. Daily precipitation data of 50 years (1960–2010) from three meteorological stations were used in this study. We found DIs with intermediate time steps (7 to 18 months) to have the highest predictive values for identifying droughts. And DIs exhibited a better similarity in the 12-month timestep. Among all the DIs, EDI exhibited the best correlation with other DIs for various timesteps. When further comparing with historical droughts, Z-Score, SPI, and EDI were found more sensitive to multi-monthly cumulative precipitation changes (r2 > 0.55) with respect to monthly precipitation changes (r2 ≤ 0.10), while EDI was more preferable when only monthly precipitation data were available. These results indicated that various indices for different timesteps should be investigated in drought monitoring in WRB, especially the intermediate timesteps should be considered.

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Impact of meteorological drought on hydrological drought in Toruń (central Poland) in the period of 1971–2015

Journal of Water and Land Development ◽

10.1515/jwld-2017-0001 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

pp. 3-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Bogdan Bąk ◽

Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Middle Part ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

External Factors ◽

Hydropower Plant ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Index Method ◽

Vistula River ◽

Groundwater Basin

Abstract The paper presents impact of meteorological drought on hydrological drought on the Vistula River in Toruń in the period of 1971-2015. It uses index method for the assessment of hydrological drought threat degree as a result of multi-month lasting meteorological drought. Based on the values of the SPI-24 (24-month standardized precipitation index) it was determined that meteorological drought in Toruń appeared six times and the total time of the phenomenon was 33% of the studied interval. Periods of hydrological drought on the Vistula River in Toruń have been determined based on the values of the SWI-24 (24-month standardized water level index). It has been found out that hydrological drought appeared four times and its total time was 10% longer that the meteorological drought. Based on the values of both indices (SPI-24 and SWI-24) correlation coefficient for months, seasons and years, it was found that the relation between both kind of droughts is weak (r < 0.5). That result is also confirmed in the distribution of both kinds of drought. Only in 32 months (8% of the total time) the intensity of the two simultaneously occurring drought was at least moderate. The achieved results revealed that the hydrological drought was occurring periodically, independent on meteorological drought. Hydrological drought was also influenced by the external factors (hydropower plant in Włocławek, Major Groundwater Basin - GZWP) and climate factors appearing in the upper and middle part of the river basin.

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Application of the Hidden Markov Bayesian Classifier and Propagation Concept for Probabilistic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in South Korea

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11091000 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1000

Author(s):

Muhammad Nouman Sattar ◽

Muhammad Jehanzaib ◽

Ji Eun Kim ◽

Hyun-Han Kwon ◽

Tae-Woong Kim

Keyword(s):

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Bayesian Classifier ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Data Availability ◽

Negative Effects ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Hydrological Droughts ◽

Drought Classes

Drought is one of the most destructive natural hazards and results in negative effects on the environment, agriculture, economics, and society. A meteorological drought originates from atmospheric components, while a hydrological drought is influenced by properties of the hydrological cycle and generally induced by a continuous meteorological drought. Several studies have attempted to explain the cross dependencies between meteorological and hydrological droughts. However, these previous studies did not consider the propagation of drought classes. Therefore, in this study, to consider the drought propagation concept and to probabilistically assess the meteorological and hydrological drought classes, characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), respectively, we employed the Markov Bayesian Classifier (MBC) model that combines the procedure of iteration of feature extraction, classification, and application for assessment of drought classes for both SPI and SRI. The classification results were compared using the observed SPI and SRI, as well as with previous findings, which demonstrated that the MBC was able to reasonably determine drought classes. The accuracy of the MBC model in predicting all the classes of meteorological drought varies from 36 to 76% and in predicting all the classes of hydrological drought varies from 33 to 70%. The advantage of the MBC-based classification is that it considers drought propagation, which is very useful for planning, monitoring, and mitigation of hydrological drought in areas having problems related to hydrological data availability.

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Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13042066 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 2066

Author(s):

Jin Hyuck Kim ◽

Jang Hyun Sung ◽

Eun-Sung Chung ◽

Sang Ug Kim ◽

Minwoo Son ◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Drought Index ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Period ◽

Drought Characteristics

Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.

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Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in Northwestern China

10.5194/hess-2018-405 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Feng Ma ◽

Lifeng Luo ◽

Aizhong Ye ◽

Qingyun Duan

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Climate Models ◽

Dominant Role ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Forecast Skill ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Drought Forecasting

Abstract. Endorheic and arid regions around the world are suffering from serious drought problems. In this study, a drought forecasting system based on eight state-of-the-art climate models from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and a Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model (DTVGM) was established and assessed over the upstream and midstream of Heihe River basin (UHRB and MHRB), a typical arid endorheic basin. The 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and 1-month Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI1) were used to capture meteorological and hydrological drought, and values below -1 indicate drought events. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated in terms of Anomaly Correlation (AC) and Brier skill score (BSS). The UHRB and MHRB showed season-dependent meteorological drought predictability and forecast skill, with higher values during winter and autumn than that during spring. For hydrological forecasts, the forecast skill in the UHRB was higher than that in MHRB. Predicting meteorological droughts more than 2 months in advance became difficult because of complex climate mechanism. However, the hydrological drought forecasts could show some skills up to 3–6 lead months due to memory of initial hydrologic conditions (ICs) during cold and dry seasons. During wet seasons, there's no skillful hydrological predictions since lead-2 month because the dominant role of meteorological forcings. During spring, the improvement of hydrological drought predictions is the most significant as more streamflow was generated by seasonal snowmelt. Besides meteorological forcings and ICs, human activities have reduced the hydrological variability and increased hydrological predictability during the wet seasons in the MHRB.

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The effect of climate on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models

10.5194/hess-2017-745 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anouk I. Gevaert ◽

Ted I. E. Veldkamp ◽

Philip J. Ward

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Propagation Time ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Land Surface Models ◽

Surface Models

Abstract. Drought is a natural hazard that occurs at many temporal and spatial scales and has severe environmental and socio-economic impacts across the globe. The impacts of drought change as drought evolves from precipitation deficits to deficits in soil moisture or streamflow. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought, and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. We did this by cross-correlating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) against standardized indices of soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow from an ensemble of global hydrological models forced by a consistent meteorological dataset. Drought propagation is strongly related to climate, occurring at sub-seasonal timescales in tropical climates and at up to multi-annual timescales in continental and arid climates. Winter droughts are usually related to longer SPI accumulation periods than summer droughts, especially in continental and tropical savanna climates. The difference between the seasons is likely due to winter snow cover in the former and distinct wet and dry seasons in the latter. Model structure appears to play an important role in model variability, as drought propagation to soil moisture drought is slower in land surface models than in global hydrological models, but propagation to hydrological drought is faster in land surface models than in global hydrological models. The propagation time from SPI to hydrological drought in the models was evaluated against observed data at 297 in-situ streamflow stations. On average, errors between observed and modeled drought propagation timescales are small and the model ensemble mean is preferred over the use of a single model. Nevertheless, there is ample opportunity for improvement as substantial differences in drought propagation are found at 20 % of the study sites. A better understanding and representation of drought propagation in models may help improve seasonal drought forecasting as well as constrain drought variability under future climate scenarios.

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