scholarly journals Mesoscale Spatial Variability of Linear Trend of Precipitation Statistics in Korean Peninsula

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaehyeon Lee ◽  
Jaehyun Ahn ◽  
Eunsoo Choi ◽  
Dongkyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Characteristic Scale ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Approximate Characteristic

This study analyzed the spatial variability of the linear trend of the precipitation mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient, and probability of dryness (PD) based on the precipitation data between 1981 and 2015 observed at 65 rain gages located across Korean Peninsula. While the result of the Mann-Kendall test based on the yearly statistics showed no temporal trend at most of the gage locations, the same test based on the 20-yearly statistics showed that statistically significant temporal trend exists at 54% (mean), 60% (variance), 61% (autocorrelation), and 61% (PD) among the total 65 rain gages. In addition, this study produced the map of the linear trend of the precipitation statistics. The map showed a clear regional and seasonal tendency implying that the impact of the climate change varies significantly within Korea. The variogram analysis revealed that the approximate characteristic scale of linear trend of hourly and daily precipitation statistics ranges between 50 km and 200 km and between 100 km and 250 km, respectively. This characteristic scale is significantly smaller than the spatial scale of atmospheric circulation, which suggests that future water resources management plans of Korea should consider this mesoscale variability that otherwise can be missed if it is based only on the GCM simulation results.

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

scholarly journals How Risky Is That Risk Sharing Agreement? Mean-Variance Tradeoffs and Unintended Consequences of Six Common Risk Sharing Agreements

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 238146832199040
Author(s):  
Gregory S. Zaric
Keyword(s):  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Drug Costs ◽  
New Drugs ◽  
Total Drug ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Clinical Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Variance

Background. Pharmaceutical risk sharing agreements (RSAs) are commonly used to manage uncertainties in costs and/or clinical benefits when new drugs are added to a formulary. However, existing mathematical models of RSAs ignore the impact of RSAs on clinical and financial risk. Methods. We develop a model in which the number of patients, total drug consumption per patient, and incremental health benefits per patient are uncertain at the time of the introduction of a new drug. We use the model to evaluate the impact of six common RSAs on total drug costs and total net monetary benefit (NMB). Results. We show that, relative to not having an RSA in place, each RSA reduces expected total drug costs and increases expected total NMB. Each RSA also improves two measures of risk by reducing the probability that total drug costs exceed any threshold and reducing the probability of obtaining negative NMB. However, the effects on variance in both NMB and total drug costs are mixed. In some cases, relative to not having an RSA in place, implementing an RSA can increase variability in total drug costs or total NMB. We also show that, for some RSAs, when their parameters are adjusted so that they have the same impact on expected total drug cost, they can be rank-ordered in terms of their impact on variance in drug costs. Conclusions. Although all RSAs reduce expected total drug costs and increase expected total NMB, some RSAs may actually have the undesirable effect of increasing risk. Payers and formulary managers should be aware of these mean-variance tradeoffs and the potentially unintended results of RSAs when designing and negotiating RSAs.

scholarly journals Non-Parametric Generalized Additive Models as a Tool for Evaluating Policy Interventions

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 299
Author(s):  
Jaime Pinilla ◽  
Miguel Negrín
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Nonlinear Trends ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Non Parametric

The interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention. Segmented linear regression models have been the most used models to carry out this analysis. However, they assume a linear trend that may not be appropriate in many situations. In this paper, we show how generalized additive models (GAMs), a non-parametric regression-based method, can be useful to accommodate nonlinear trends. An analysis with simulated data is carried out to assess the performance of both models. Data were simulated from linear and non-linear (quadratic and cubic) functions. The results of this analysis show how GAMs improve on segmented linear regression models when the trend is non-linear, but they also show a good performance when the trend is linear. A real-life application where the impact of the 2012 Spanish cost-sharing reforms on pharmaceutical prescription is also analyzed. Seasonality and an indicator variable for the stockpiling effect are included as explanatory variables. The segmented linear regression model shows good fit of the data. However, the GAM concludes that the hypothesis of linear trend is rejected. The estimated level shift is similar for both models but the cumulative absolute effect on the number of prescriptions is lower in GAM.

scholarly journals Prevalence of mastitis in Nigerian livestock: a Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-29
Author(s):  
Hussaini Ojagefu Adamu ◽  
Rahimat Oshuwa Hussaini ◽  
Cedric Obasuyi ◽  
Linus Irefo Anagha ◽  
Gabriel Oscy Okoduwa
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Ecological Development ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Control And Management ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMastitis is a disease of livestock that directly impede livestock production and thus hindering the socio-ecological development of sub-Saharan Africa. Studies have estimated the prevalence of this disease in 30% of Africa countries, with Ethiopia having the highest prevalence. The coverage is low, despite the wide livestock and dairy farms distribution in Africa. Furthermore, estimated economic losses due to the impact of mastitis are lacking in Nigeria. The disease is endemic in Nigeria as indicated by the available data and there are no proposed management plans or control strategies. This review is thus presented to serve as a wakeup call to all parties involved to intensify efforts towards the diagnosis, control, and management of the disease in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Lower extremity reamputation in people with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e002325
Author(s):  
Rongqi Liu ◽  
Brian J Petersen ◽  
Gary M Rothenberg ◽  
David G Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Lower Extremity ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Contralateral Limb ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Patients With Diabetes ◽  
Parametric Survival ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

In this study, we determined the reamputation-free survival to both limbs and to the contralateral limb only following an index amputation of any-level and assessed whether reamputation rates have changed over time. We completed a systematic search using PubMed and screened a total of 205 articles for data on reamputation rates. We reported qualitative characteristics of 56 studies that included data on reamputation rates and completed a meta-analysis on 22 of the studies which enrolled exclusively participants with diabetes. The random-effects meta-analysis fit a parametric survival distribution to the data for reamputations to both limbs and to the contralateral limb only. We assessed whether there was a temporal trend in the reamputation rate using the Mann-Kendall test. Incidence rates were high for reamputation to both limbs and to the contralateral limb only. At 1 year, the reamputation rate for all contralateral and ipsilateral reamputations was found to be 19% (IQR=5.1%–31.6%), and at 5 years, it was found to be 37.1% (IQR=27.0%–47.2%). The contralateral reamputation rate at 5 years was found to be 20.5% (IQR=13.3%–27.2%). We found no evidence of a trend in the reamputation rates over more than two decades of literature analyzed. The incidence of lower extremity reamputation is high among patients with diabetes who have undergone initial amputations secondary to diabetes, and rates of reamputation have not changed over at least two decades.

scholarly journals Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 648
Author(s):  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Vladimir Platonov ◽  
Alexander Kislov ◽  
Ksenia Silvestrova ◽  
Igor Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Significant Linear Trend ◽  
The Impact

The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.

scholarly journals Assessing Impact of Climate Variability in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh Using Livelihood Vulnerability Index

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Sabrina Mehzabin ◽  
M. Shahjahan Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Precipitation Concentration Index ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Present Decade ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the variability of rainfall and temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh and assessed the impact of such variability on local livelihood in the last two decades. The variability analysis involved the use of coefficient of variation (CV), standardized precipitation anomaly (Z), and precipitation concentration index (PCI). Linear regression analysis was conducted to assess the trends, and a Mann–Kendall test was performed to detect the significance of the trends. The impact of climate variability was assessed by using a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), which consisted of six livelihood components with several sub-components under each component. Primary data to construct the LVIs were collected through a semi-structed questionnaire survey of 132 households in a coastal polder. The survey data were triangulated and supplemented with qualitative data from focused group discussions and key informant interviews. The results showed significant rises in temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Though there were no discernable trends in annual and seasonal rainfalls, the anomalies increased in the dry season. The annual PCI and Z were found to capture the climate variability better than the currently used mean monthly standard deviation. The comparison of the LVIs of the present decade with the past indicated that the livelihood vulnerability, particularly in the water component, had increased in the coastal polder due to the increases in natural hazards and climate variability. The index-based vulnerability analysis conducted in this study can be adapted for livelihood vulnerability assessment in deltaic coastal areas of Asia and Africa.

scholarly journals Effect of snow microstructure variability on Ku-band radar snow water equivalent retrievals

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 3045-3059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Rutter ◽  
Melody J. Sandells ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Joshua King ◽  
Peter Toose ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Snow Layer ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Retrieval Errors ◽  
Snow Microstructure ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Spatial variability in snowpack properties negatively impacts our capacity to make direct measurements of snow water equivalent (SWE) using satellites. A comprehensive data set of snow microstructure (94 profiles at 36 sites) and snow layer thickness (9000 vertical profiles across nine trenches) collected over two winters at Trail Valley Creek, NWT, Canada, was applied in synthetic radiative transfer experiments. This allowed for robust assessment of the impact of estimation accuracy of unknown snow microstructural characteristics on the viability of SWE retrievals. Depth hoar layer thickness varied over the shortest horizontal distances, controlled by subnivean vegetation and topography, while variability in total snowpack thickness approximated that of wind slab layers. Mean horizontal correlation lengths of layer thickness were less than a metre for all layers. Depth hoar was consistently ∼30 % of total depth, and with increasing total depth the proportion of wind slab increased at the expense of the decreasing surface snow layer. Distinct differences were evident between distributions of layer properties; a single median value represented density and specific surface area (SSA) of each layer well. Spatial variability in microstructure of depth hoar layers dominated SWE retrieval errors. A depth hoar SSA estimate of around 7 % under the median value was needed to accurately retrieve SWE. In shallow snowpacks <0.6 m, depth hoar SSA estimates of ±5 %–10 % around the optimal retrieval SSA allowed SWE retrievals within a tolerance of ±30 mm. Where snowpacks were deeper than ∼30 cm, accurate values of representative SSA for depth hoar became critical as retrieval errors were exceeded if the median depth hoar SSA was applied.

Factors influencing success among collaborative sage-grouse management groups in the western United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 250-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
LORIEN R. BELTON ◽  
DOUGLAS JACKSON-SMITH
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Collaborative Group ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Sage Grouse ◽  
Implementation Success ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Collaborative Conservation ◽  
Process Factors ◽  
Group Success ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYConsiderable efforts have been put into collaborative conservation efforts across the globe. In the western USA, concern about declines of two sage-grouse species (Centrocercus urophasianus and C. minimus) has led to the creation of over 60 collaborative wildlife management partnership groups to develop and implement local sage-grouse management plans. These sage-grouse local working groups (LWGs) share a common goal, information, and policy environment, but were implemented in diverse ways. As a result, they provide a rare opportunity to study systematically the impact of contextual, organizational, institutional and process factors on local collaborative group success. Data from document reviews and an extensive survey of over 700 group participants from 53 sage-grouse LWGs were used to assess the success of this collaborative conservation effort and identify those group attributes that were related to successful implementation and funding of projects. Specifically, external, internal and emergent group characteristics were considered as likely predictors of LWG implementation success. The LWGs varied broadly in their achievements. The presence of a neutral facilitator, participants' feelings of ownership, groups whose local plans had more authority and early-stage group successes were significantly related to implementation success at the group level.

The impact on clinical practice of the 2015 reforms to the New South Wales Mental Health Act

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Ryan ◽  
Sascha Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Mental Health Act ◽  
Recovery Movement ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Objectives: The Mental Health Act 2007 (NSW) ( MHA) was recently reformed in light of the recovery movement and the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. We analyse the changes and describe the impact that these reforms should have upon clinical practice. Conclusions: The principles of care and treatment added to the MHA place a strong onus on clinicians to monitor patients’ decision-making capacity, institute a supported decision-making model and obtain consent to any treatment proposed. Patients competently refusing treatment should only be subject to involuntary treatment in extraordinary circumstances. Even when patients incompetently refuse treatment, clinicians must make every effort reasonably practicable to tailor management plans to take account of any views and preferences expressed by them or made known via friends, family or advance statements.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document