scholarly journals Quantitative Evaluation and Case Study of Risk Degree for Underground Goafs with Multiple Indexes considering Uncertain Factors in Mines

Geofluids ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longjun Dong ◽  
Weiwei Shu ◽  
Xibing Li ◽  
Zilong Zhou ◽  
Fengqiang Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Index Measurement ◽  
Uncertainty Measurement ◽  
Practical Engineering ◽  
Dabaoshan Mine ◽  
Recognition Criterion

The accidents caused by underground goafs are frequent and destructive due to irregular geometric shapes and complex spatial distributions, which caused severe damage to the environment and public health. Based on the theories of uncertainty measurement evaluation (WME) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the comprehensive risk evaluation of underground goafs was carried out using multiple indexes. Considering the hydrogeological conditions, mining status, and engineering parameters of underground goafs, the evaluation index system was established to evaluate the risk degrees considering quantified uncertain factors. The single index measurement values were solved by the semiridge measurement function. The weights for evaluation vectors were calculated through the entropy theory and AHP. Finally, the risk level was evaluated according to the credible degree recognition criterion (CDRC) and the maximum membership principle. The risk levels of 37 underground goafs in Dabaoshan mine were evaluated using 4 coupled methods. The order for underground goafs risk degrees was ranked and classified on account of the uncertainty important degree. According to the ranked order, the reasonability of 4 coupled methods was evaluated quantitatively. Results show that the UME-CDRC can be applied in the practical engineering, which provides an efficient guidance to both reduce the accident risk and improve the mining environment.

Prioritizing Risk-level Factors in Comprehensive Automobile Insurance Management: A Hybrid Multi-criteria Decision-making Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092093228
Author(s):  
Zahra Shams Esfandabadi ◽  
Meisam Ranjbari ◽  
Simone Domenico Scagnelli
Keyword(s):  
Insurance Market ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Fuzzy Delphi ◽  
The Individual

An efficient risk-level prediction for newly proposed insurance policies plays a significant role in the survival of companies in the highly competitive insurance market. In Iran, risk assessment in comprehensive automobile insurance, which is a part of motor insurance, is only based on the vehicle attributes without proper consideration of personal and behavioural characteristics of driver(s). As a result, pricing is unfair in most of the cases and this can put insurance companies in an unfavourable financial position due to attracting high-risk drivers instead of low-risk ones. In this scenario, to identify and prioritize important factors affecting risk levels and to move towards a fair ratemaking, a two-phase process based on fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed in this research. Additionally, similarity aggregation method (SAM) is applied to combine the individual fuzzy opinions of the surveyed experts into a group fuzzy consensus opinion. The results of this empirical study contribute to the insurance market of Iran by proposing appropriate weighting of the relevant risk factors to support stakeholders and policymakers for assessing risks more accurately, as well as designing more effective databases and insurance proposal forms.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Assessment of Metro System Using Improved Trapezoidal Fuzzy AHP: A Case Study of Guangzhou

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 5154
Author(s):  
Guangpeng Wang ◽  
Lianyou Liu ◽  
Peijun Shi ◽  
Guoming Zhang ◽  
Jifu Liu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Metro Systems ◽  
Very High

Metro systems have become high-risk entities due to the increased frequency and severity of urban flooding. Therefore, understanding the flood risk of metro systems is a prerequisite for mega-cities’ flood protection and risk management. This study proposes a method for accurately assessing the flood risk of metro systems based on an improved trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We applied this method to assess the flood risk of 14 lines and 268 stations of the Guangzhou Metro. The risk results validation showed that the accuracy of the improved trapezoidal fuzzy AHP (90% match) outperformed the traditional trapezoidal AHP (70% match). The distribution of different flood risk levels in Guangzhou metro lines exhibited a polarization signature. About 69% (155 km2) of very high and high risk zones were concentrated in central urban areas (Yuexiu, Liwan, Tianhe, and Haizhu); the three metro lines with the highest overall risk level were lines 3, 6, and 5; and the metro stations at very high risk were mainly located on metro lines 6, 3, 5, 1, and 2. Based on fieldwork, we suggest raising exits, installing watertight doors, and using early warning strategies to resist metro floods. This study can provide scientific data for decision-makers to reasonably allocate flood prevention resources, which is significant in reducing flood losses and promoting Guangzhou’s sustainable development.

Evaluation of Investment Risk in International Engineering Project Based on Improved Risk Matrix Method

2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892
Author(s):  
Jin Liu ◽  
Xuan Neng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Matrix Method ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Probability ◽  
Risk Acceptability

In this paper, risk acceptability evaluation and risk weight and improved risk level were added in original risk matrix method according to its shortcomings and practicality and need of evaluation of investment risk in international engineering project. A model based on improved risk matrix method was put forward to evaluate investment risk in international engineering project. Firstly, investment risk evaluation index system of international engineering project was established. Secondly, level of risk factors were decided by risk impact level and risk probability scope, borda ordinal value was calculated to form judgment matrix, analytic hierarchy process was introduced to calculate risk weight. Synthetic risk level was determined by product of quantized value of risk level and corresponding risk weight. Risk acceptability evaluation was decided by risk impact level and risk probability scope. Finally, a case study was presented to verify the feasibility of the model which would provide a reliable basis for the investment decision.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of foundation pit construction using cloud model

2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 04070
Author(s):  
Tian Xun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Simple Calculation ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Foundation Pit ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Construction Risk

The risk level evaluation of foundation pit construction has the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness. Based on the theory of cloud model, a new model of risk level of foundation pit construction is discussed to comprehensively analyze the fuzziness and randomness of foundation pit construction risk assessment. Firstly, the evaluation index system of foundation pit construction risk level is established according to the field monitoring value, and then the cloud numerical characteristics of each evaluation factor belonging to different risk levels are calculated. According to the cloud digital characteristics of each evaluation factor, the determination degree of each evaluation factor belonging to different risk levels can be obtained. Finally, the weight and determination degree of the evaluation factor can be calculated comprehensively to obtain the comprehensive certainty degree of foundation pit construction risk, so as to determine the foundation pit construction risk level. The results of practical application and comparison with other evaluation methods show that this model is effective and feasible for risk classification of foundation pit construction, and has the advantages of simple calculation process and reliable results, which also provides a reference for the analysis of other similar problems.

scholarly journals Risk factors and risk level assessment: Forty thousand emergencies over the past decade in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Ma ◽  
Yijun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Process Analysis ◽  
Borda Count ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
Public Crisis

During a public emergency, which possibly evolves into a major public crisis, it is critical to quickly identify the main risk factors and assess the levels of risk, in order to efficiently manage the risks. In this study, about 40 000 emergencies in China over the past decade are investigated. Then, the five different types of risk factors are identified of these emergencies using the 5W1H methodology, including risk time (When), risk location (Where), risk population (Who), risk psychology (Why) and risk element (What), which lead to a risk matrix that is suitable for China’s national conditions. Based on this risk matrix, combined with expert knowledge, the Borda count and the analytic hierarchy process analysis, risk levels can be precisely assessed, solving ‘how to provide a solution’ (How), which provides decision-making guidance and facilitates prompt risk responses.

scholarly journals A Cloud Model-Based Risk Assessment Methodology for Tunneling-Induced Damage to Existing Tunnel

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Tian Xu ◽  
Zhanping Song ◽  
Desai Guo ◽  
Yuncai Song
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Mechanism Analysis ◽  
Railway Tunnel ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Based

This study presents a cloud model-based approach for risk assessment of existing tunnels in tunneling construction environments where the cloud model provides a basis for uncertainty transformation between its qualitative concepts and quantitative expressions. An evaluation index system is established for risk assessment of existing tunnels based on the tunnel-induced failure mechanism analysis. The assessment result is obtained through the correlation with the cloud model of each risk level. Risk assessment for existing Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Railway Tunnel in the tunneling environment of Shenzhen Metro Line 6 is shown in a case study. Comparisons between Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) methods are further discussed according to results. The proposed evaluation method is verified to be more competitive as the fuzziness and randomness of uncertainties in the risk assessment system can be considered comprehensively. This method can serve as a decision-making tool for other similar project risk assessment methods to increase the likelihood of a successful project in an uncertain environment.

Grey Analytic Hierarchy X DG Corporate Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 501-504 ◽  
pp. 2377-2380
Author(s):  
Wen Juan Song ◽  
Bin Zhan ◽  
Guan Ze Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Transportation Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Hazardous Materials Transportation ◽  
Transportation Risk

First, the gray theory and analytic hierarchy brief overview, and then establish the evaluation index system, using the gray system theory and the analytic hierarchy process AHP gray formed to establish a specific hazardous materials transportation safety risk assessment model, Company X hazardous materials transportation risk evaluation, get the value of the company's risk level, and the evaluation value analysis.

Research on Risk Assessment of Vessel-Bridge Collision Accident in Inland Waterway

2012 ◽  
Vol 256-259 ◽  
pp. 2790-2793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Zhang ◽  
Xiang Rui Yang ◽  
Xiao Biao Fan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Bridge Type ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Risk Evaluation Model

The Ship-Bridge collision accident risk evaluation model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was established and the weights of factors were confirmed. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of the Vessel-Bridge collision accident risk level were accomplished. The application results show that the possibility of Ship-Bridge collision accident could be evaluated by the security risk evaluation model based on the AHP. It can provide decision-making suggestions for the sitting of the new bridge and optimal evaluation for bridge type scheme.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

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