A Method of Reducing Flight Delay by Exploring Internal Mechanism of Flight Delays

This paper explores the internal mechanism of flight departure delay for the Delta Air Lines (IATA-Code: DL) from the viewpoint of statistical law. We roughly divide all of delay factors into two sorts: propagation factor (PF), and nonpropagation factors (NPF). From the statistical results, we find that the distribution of the flight departure delay caused by only NPF exhibits obvious power law (PL) feature, which can be explained by queuing model, while the original distribution of flight departure delay follows the shift power law (SPL). The mechanism of SPL distribution of flight departure delay is considered as the results of the aircraft queue for take-off due to the airports congestion and the propagation delay caused by late-arriving aircraft. Based on the above mechanism, we develop a specific measure for formulating flight planning from the perspective of mathematical statistics, which is easy to implement and reduces flight delays without increasing operational costs. We analyze the punctuality performance for 10 of the busiest and the highest delay ratio airports from 155 airports where DL took off and landed in the second half of 2017. Then, the scheduled turnaround time for all flights and the average scheduled turnaround time for all aircraft operated by DL has been counted. At last, the effectiveness and practicability of our method is verified by the flights operation data of the first half of 2018.

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Probabilistic Flight Delay Predictions Using Machine Learning and Applications to the Flight-to-Gate Assignment Problem

Aerospace ◽

10.3390/aerospace8060152 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 152

Author(s):

Micha Zoutendijk ◽

Mihaela Mitici

Keyword(s):

Assignment Problem ◽

Absolute Error ◽

Aviation Industry ◽

Probabilistic Forecasting ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Mixture Density ◽

Assignment Model ◽

Gate Assignment ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Delay Prediction

The problem of flight delay prediction is approached most often by predicting a delay class or value. However, the aviation industry can benefit greatly from probabilistic delay predictions on an individual flight basis, as these give insight into the uncertainty of the delay predictions. Therefore, in this study, two probabilistic forecasting algorithms, Mixture Density Networks and Random Forest regression, are applied to predict flight delays at a European airport. The algorithms estimate well the distribution of arrival and departure flight delays with a Mean Absolute Error of less than 15 min. To illustrate the utility of the estimated delay distributions, we integrate these probabilistic predictions into a probabilistic flight-to-gate assignment problem. The objective of this problem is to increase the robustness of flight-to-gate assignments. Considering probabilistic delay predictions, our proposed flight-to-gate assignment model reduces the number of conflicted aircraft by up to 74% when compared to a deterministic flight-to-gate assignment model. In general, the results illustrate the utility of considering probabilistic forecasting for robust airport operations’ optimization.

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KOMPENSASI SEBAGAI BENTUK TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK MASKAPAI PENERBANGAN DALAM KETERLAMBATAN JADWAL PENERBANGAN KOMERSIAL DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Privat Law ◽

10.20961/privat.v7i1.30140 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 124

Author(s):

Asmarsha Qathrinada , ◽

Pranoto ,

Keyword(s):

Deductive Reasoning ◽

Legal Protection ◽

Air Transportation ◽

Air Transport ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Reasoning Patterns ◽

The Government ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Secondary Materials

Abstract This article aims to find out how legal protection is provided to passengers in commercial air transport activities in Indonesia, especially regarding airline responsibilities to passengers and the compensation provided in case of flight delays due to negligence of the carrier. This research is performed with legal research, using prescriptive characteristic. The research is using statute approach by reviewing the regulations related to the issues. The source of the research is derived from primary legal materials namely legislation, secondary materials from legal literatures, as well as tertiary or non-legal legal material. The collection of legal materials was done by literature studies, and analyzed with deductive reasoning patterns. Based on the result of the research, it can be concluded that the regulation of compensations given by the airlines to passengers has been quite well regulated in the Minister of Transportation Regulation No. 89 of 2015, but in the implementation, the government is still less firm in cracking down on airlines that do not carry out their responsibility of the compensation regulated in Regulation of the Minister of Transportation Number 77 in year 2011. Keywords: compensation; flight delay; commercial air transportation.Abstrak Artikel ini bertujuan mengetahui bagaimana perlindungan hukum yang diberikan kepada penumpang dalam kegiatan angkutan udara komersial di Indonesia, khususnya mengenai tanggung jawab maskapai penerbangan terhadap penumpang serta apa kompensasi yang diberikan apabila terjadi penundaan penerbangan karena kelalaian pihak pengangkut. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan penelitian hukum dan bersifat preskriptif. Pendekatan penelitian berupa pendekatan undang-undang dengan menelaah regulasi yang besangkutan dengan isu yang penulis angkat dalam penulisan ini. Sumber penelitian berasal dari bahan hukum primer yaitu perundang-undangan, bahan sekunder dari kepustakaan hukum, serta bahan hukum tersier atau non-hukum. Pengumpulan bahan hukum dilakukan dengan studi kepustakaan, dan menganalisis dengan pola penalaran deduktif. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa pengaturan mengenai kompensasi yang diberikan oleh maskapai penerbangan terhadap penumpang telah cukup baik diatur dalam Peraturan Menteri Perhubungan Nomor 89 Tahun 2015, namun dalam pelaksanaannya pemerintah masih kurang tegas dalam menindak maskapai yang tidak melaksanakan tanggung jawabnya untuk memberikan kompensasi sesuai dengan Peraturan Menteri Perhubungan Nomor 77 Tahun 2011. Kata kunci: kompensasi; keterlambatan penerbangan; pengangkutan udara komersial.

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Assessing the effects of flight delays, distance, number of passengers and seasonality on revenue

Kybernetes ◽

10.1108/k-01-2018-0022 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 48 (9) ◽

pp. 2138-2149

Author(s):

Murat Guven ◽

Eyup Calik ◽

Basak Cetinguc ◽

Bulent Guloglu ◽

Fethi Calisir

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Future Research ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Content Type ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Common Correlated Effects ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Airline Company

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effects of flight delays, distance, number of passengers and seasonality on revenue in the Turkish air transport industry. Design/methodology/approach The domestic return routes of a Turkish airline company were examined to address this issue. Among five cities and six airports, 14 major domestic return routes were selected. The augmented mean group (AMG) estimator and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator were conducted with a two-way fixed effects (FE) robustness test in this study. Findings The results show that arrival flight delay and departure flight delay had negative effects on revenue, whereas the distance between airports, the number of air passengers and seasonality had positive effects on revenue. Research limitations/implications The data used in this study were retrieved from a Turkish airline company; for future research, other airline companies operating in Turkey may be included. Practical implications These findings could be evaluated by air transportation leaders to provide a guide to make strategic decisions to achieve greater performance in this competitive environment. Originality/value The originality of the paper comes from the facts that besides distance and number of passengers, the authors control for the seasonality when assessing the effects of flight delay on revenue; they use panel data techniques, which permit them to control for individual heterogeneity, and create more variability, more efficiency and less collinearity among the variables; they use two recent panel data techniques, CCEMG and AMG, allowing for cross-section dependence.

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Amsterdam to Dublin Eventually Delayed? LSTM and Transfer Learning for Predicting Delays of Low Cost Airlines

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.1609/aaai.v33i01.33019541 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 9541-9546

Author(s):

Nicholas McCarthy ◽

Mohammad Karzand ◽

Freddy Lecue

Keyword(s):

Transfer Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Low Cost ◽

Learning Approaches ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Commercial Aviation ◽

Feature Spaces ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Delay Prediction ◽

Heterogeneous Feature

Flight delays impact airlines, airports and passengers. Delay prediction is crucial during the decision-making process for all players in commercial aviation, and in particular for airlines to meet their on-time performance objectives. Although many machine learning approaches have been experimented with, they fail in (i) predicting delays in minutes with low errors (less than 15 minutes), (ii) being applied to small carriers i.e., low cost companies characterized by a small amount of data. This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approach to predicting flight delay, modeled as a sequence of flights across multiple airports for a particular aircraft throughout the day. We then suggest a transfer learning approach between heterogeneous feature spaces to train a prediction model for a given smaller airline using the data from another larger airline. Our approach is demonstrated to be robust and accurate for low cost airlines in Europe.

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Flight Delay Prediction Using Machine Learning

International Journal of Advanced Research in Science, Communication and Technology ◽

10.48175/ijarsct-1275 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 473-476

Author(s):

Prajwal Dhone ◽

Uday Kirange ◽

Rushabh Satarkar ◽

Prof. Shashant Jaykar

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Current Data ◽

Environmental Harm ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Adverse Weather Conditions ◽

Adverse Weather ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Delay Prediction

In this fast growing world as airplanes continue flying, flight delays are the part of the experience. According to the Bureau Of Statistics(BOS), about 20% of all flights are delayed by 15 minutes or more. Flight delays causes a negative impact, mainly economical for airport authorities, commuters and airline industries as well. Furthermore, in the domain of sustainability, it can even cause environmental harm by the rise in fuel consumption and gas emissions and also some of the important factors including adverse weather conditions, preparing the aircraft, fixing of mechanical issue, getting security clearance, etc. Hence, these are the factors which indicates the necessity it has become to predict the delays of airline problems. To carry out the predictive analysis, which includes a range of statistical techniques from machine learning, this studies historical and current data to make predictions about the future delays, taking help of Regression Analysis using regularization technique used in Python.

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Pertanggungjawaban Pidana Terhadap Pencurian Barang Penumpang Pesawat Studi Dibandara Udara Kualanamu Internasional Airport

Jurnal Hukum Kaidah: Media Komunikasi dan Informasi Hukum dan Masyarakat ◽

10.30743/jhk.v20i1.3469 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 118-126

Author(s):

Anjani Sipahutar

Keyword(s):

Air Transportation ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Internal Factors ◽

International Airport ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Transportation Company

This study aims to determine that there are still many events that are still require the liability from the commercial air transportation company, both from the carrier company and those who are related to the carrier, such as flight delays (flight delay) either caused by weather factors or internal factors from the carrier company, the occurrence of negligence from the transport officer which causes the loss of goods owned by passengers, or because of there is an event for which the reason is unknown so that the aircraft experiences interference during the flight, from the results of this research it can be seen that the carrier operating the aircraft is obliged to be responsible for losses against:a. passengers who died, disability or injury;b. lost or damaged of the cabin baggage;c. lost, destroyed, or damaged of the checked baggage;d. lost, destroyed, or damaged of the cargo;e. delay in air transportation; andf. losses suffered by third partiesas well as who are the parties involved, the requirements that must be fulfilled and how the rights and the obligations of the parties are fulfilled, as well as other provisions in its implementation if a passenger's goods are lost or damaged and provide a description of its protection.Keywords : Liability, Theft of Goods, Aircraft Passengers, Kualanamu International Airport.

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Pengaruh Pengoperasian Wide-Body Aircraft Terhadap Kelancaran Arus Lalu Lintas Penerbangan di Makassar Air Traffic Service Center

SPROCKET JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING ◽

10.36655/sproket.v2i1.459 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 8-12

Author(s):

Daniel Rumani ◽

Hadi Prayitno ◽

Intan Rizka Subandi

Keyword(s):

Positive Relationship ◽

Air Traffic ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Service Center ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Positive Correlation ◽

Smooth Flow ◽

Research Section ◽

Regression Test ◽

Flight Delay

This study aims to obtain a description of whether there is an influence between the movement of wide-body aircraft both departure and arrival on flight delays as a measure of the smooth flow of flight traffic at the Makassar Air Traffic Service Center. The research concludes that there is a positive relationship between the operation of wide-body aircraft and flight delays of 0.870. The positive correlation indicates that the more wide-body aircraft operations, the flight delay will increase, which if there is an increase in flight delays, the smooth flow of flight traffic will decrease. The coefficient of determination is 75%, which means that the effect of the operation of wide-body aircraft on flight delays is 75% and the rest is determined by other factors not included in the research section. The equation obtained from the regression test is Y = -5,679 + 1,872 X. So, if the operation of wide-body aircraft increases by 1, the flight delay will increase by 1,872 at a constant of -5,679.

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Research on Arrival/Departure Scheduling of Flights on Multirunways Based on Genetic Algorithm

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2014/851202 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Hang Zhou ◽

Xinxin Jiang

Keyword(s):

Genetic Algorithm ◽

Operating Conditions ◽

Objective Functions ◽

Maximum Throughput ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Terminal Area ◽

Optimization Scheduling

Aiming at the phenomenon of a large number of flight delays in the terminal area makes a reasonable scheduling for the approach and departure flights, which will minimize flight delay losses and improve runway utilization. This paper considered factors such as operating conditions and safety interval of multi runways; the maximum throughput and minimum flight delay losses as well as robustness were taken as objective functions; the model of optimization scheduling of approach and departure flights was established. Finally, the genetic algorithm was introduced to solve the model. The results showed that, in the program whose advance is not counted as a loss, its runway throughput is improved by 18.4%, the delay losses are reduced by 85.8%, and the robustness is increased by 20% compared with the results of FCFS (first come first served) algorithm, while, compared with the program whose advance is counted as a loss, the runway throughput is improved by 15.16%, flight delay losses are decreased by 75.64%, and the robustness is also increased by 20%. The algorithm can improve the efficiency and reduce delay losses effectively and reduce the workload of controllers, thereby improving economic results.

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Flight Recovery Method of Regional Multiairport Based on Risk Control Model

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2020/7105381 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-18

Author(s):

Quan Shao ◽

Mengxue Shao ◽

Yunpeng Bin ◽

Pei Zhu ◽

Yan Zhou

Keyword(s):

Delay Time ◽

Risk Control ◽

Control Model ◽

Security Level ◽

Effective Solution ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Recovery Method ◽

Risk Probability ◽

Control Flight ◽

Flight Delay

In the regional multiairport system, the contradiction between the limited operating resources and the large flight flow is serious, and the flight delays can easily lead to the occurrence of unsafe events. This paper investigates the abnormal flight recovery method in regional multiairport system based on risk control. The focus is to reschedule arrival-departure flights in real time with minimized delay time and risk probability. In this study, the risk about terminal area control and scene operation was considered in the analysis of the risk control model (RCM), which includes six key risk points: airspace control, flight conflict, ground service, apron support, ground control, and taxiing conflict. The mathematical model on flight recovery was constructed to solve minimized delay time and risk probability with MSINS (multistart algorithm with intelligent neighborhood selection). The data of a typical regional multiairport system in China were selected for experimental verification in order to compare the RCM with the traditional recovery model (TRM). The experimental results show that first, there are some hidden dangers in the traditional recovery methods of flight delay. Flight conflict and apron support are the risk points that need to be controlled most in the multiairport system. Secondly, for the effective solution with the shortest delay time, the RCM can reduce the overall operation risk of the system, but the flight delay time is a little longer. For the effective solution with the lowest risk probability, RCM can reduce the risk of system operation and the delay time of flights at the same time. Therefore, RCM can improve the security level of the system during abnormal flight recovery and ensure or even improve the recovery efficiency.

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Flight Delays, Security and Economic Reimbursements

Business and Economic Research ◽

10.5296/ber.v10i2.16985 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 225

Author(s):

Candidate Ardit Çela ◽

Klodian Muço

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

White Paper ◽

Air Traffic ◽

Air Transport ◽

The European Union ◽

Flight Delays ◽

Specific Discipline ◽

The Subject ◽

Flight Delay ◽

Terrestrial Globe

Over the past decade, the air transport system has undergone profound changes, mainly driven by the evolution of reference legislation and markets globalization process. The primary cause also goes by the name of "deregulation", which has profoundly revolutionized the tariff methodology and air transport management.With deregulation, airlines have seen disappear of barriers and constraints that incentivized growth and development for many years (Arrigo, Giuricin, 2006; Postorino, 2009).The globalization of markets has also proved decisive in the growth of demand for air transport, which has become an irreplaceable means of transfer that allows the connection from one part of the terrestrial globe to another in a few hours. Impressive growth in air traffic and deregulation has at the same time led to millions of frequent passengers and unpleasant complications, such as delays. In the absence of a specific discipline in this area and with the desire to give balance to a situation partially unbalanced to the detriment of consumers/travelers, the European Union decided to take action to remedy it, equipping passengers with effective protection tools against these afore mentioned situations.The European Union has made the rules issued in 1991 on compensation and assistance to air passengers more rigid and afflictive for airlines by providing, at the same time, new provisions aimed at mitigating the inconvenience of passengers abandoned at airports due to canceled flights or of prolonged delays. The EU legislation covering these changes, which was preceded by the Passenger Rights White Paper, is contained in EU Regulation 261/1994, which came into force in February 2005, which sets out how and operational rules on assistance and reimbursement to air traffic users (Fraschina, 2009).The three different hypotheses of "denied boarding", cancelled flights and prolonged delays are the subject of regulation.In this study, however, we will mainly address the rights and reimbursement of passengers in the event of delays of air flights, in fact according to the new legislation, more protection will be provided to passengers who will face the painful and common circumstances of the delays. Community bodies believed that adequate assistance and reimbursement should be provided to passengers who were forced to long waits at airports due to a flight delay.

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