scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Seasonal Weather Variations on the Infectiology of Brucellosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Nkuba Nyerere ◽  
Livingstone S. Luboobi ◽  
Saul C. Mpeshe ◽  
Gabriel M. Shirima
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Wild Animals ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Domestic Ruminants ◽  
Weather Variations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Seasonal Weather

A deterministic mathematical model for brucellosis that incorporates seasonality on direct and indirect transmission parameters for domestic ruminants, wild animals, humans, and the environment was formulated and analyzed in this paper. Both analytical and numerical simulations are presented. From this study, the findings show that variations in seasonal weather have the great impact on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis in humans, livestock, and wild animals. Thus, in order for the disease to be controlled or eliminated, measures should be timely implemented upon the fluctuation in the transmission of the disease.

scholarly journals Volterra–Lyapunov Stability Analysis of the Solutions of Babesiosis Disease Model

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1272
Author(s):  
Fengsheng Chien ◽  
Stanford Shateyi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Lyapunov Stability ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Global Stability Analysis ◽  
Lyapunov Stability Analysis ◽  
Disease Free

This paper studies the global stability analysis of a mathematical model on Babesiosis transmission dynamics on bovines and ticks populations as proposed by Dang et al. First, the global stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is presented. Furthermore, using the properties of Volterra–Lyapunov matrices, we show that it is possible to prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. The property of symmetry in the structure of Volterra–Lyapunov matrices plays an important role in achieving this goal. Furthermore, numerical simulations are used to verify the result presented.

Assessing the impact of agrochemicals on schistosomiasis transmission: A mathematical study

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150049
Author(s):  
Liming Cai ◽  
Peixia Yue ◽  
Mini Ghosh ◽  
Xuezhi Li
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Agricultural Pollution ◽  
Parasitic Disease ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
The Impact

Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease, which is affecting almost 240 million people worldwide. The number of humans affected by schistosomiasis is continuously increasing with the rise in the use of agrochemicals. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated and analyzed to assess the effect of agrochemicals on the transmission of schistosomiasis. The proposed model incorporates the effects of fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides on susceptible snails and snail predators along with schistosomiasis disease transmission. The existence and stability of the equilibria in the model are discussed. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters of the proposed model, which contributes most in the transmission of this disease. Numerical simulations are also performed to assess the impact of fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides on schistosomiasis outbreaks. Our study reveals that the agricultural pollution can enhance the transmission intensity of schistosomiasis, and in order to prevent the outbreak of schistosomiasis, the use of pesticides should be controlled.

scholarly journals Nonlinear Analysis of the Dynamics of Criminality and Victimisation: A Mathematical Model with Case Generation and Forwarding

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Chikodili Helen Ugwuishiwu ◽  
D. S. Sarki ◽  
G. C. E. Mbah
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Nonlinear Analysis ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Effective Implementation ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, a system of deterministic model is presented for the dynamical analysis of the interactional consequence of criminals and criminality on victimisation under two distinguishable forms of rehabilitation—the behavioural reformation of criminals and the emotional psychotherapy of victims. A threshold value, R0=maxRK,RV, responsible for the persistence of crime/criminality and victimisation, is obtained and, using it, stability analyses on the model performed. The impact of an effective implementation of the two forms of rehabilitation was found to be substantial on crime and criminality, while an ineffective implementation of same was observed to have a detrimental consequence. The prevention of repeat victimisation was seen to present a more viable option for containing crime than the noncriminalisation of victims. Further, the removal of criminals, either through quitting or death, among others, was also found to have a huge positive impact. Numerical simulations were performed for a variety of mixing criminal scenarios to verify the analytical results obtained.

scholarly journals Characterizing the Transmission Dynamics of the Cases Registered by Covid-19 in Venezuela According to Epidemic Wave and the Value of the Mantissa

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-12
Author(s):  
Raúl Isea
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Over Time

This work characterizes the transmission dynamics of the cases registered by Covid-19 in Venezuela. The needed input data were obtained from the official gazettes issued by the Government of Venezuela, from March 15 to September 9, 2020. Later, the value of the mantissa was determined, revealing the impact of the different outbreaks with special attention to the events at the baseball stadium in Nueva Esparta State, and the Las Pulgas Market located in Maracaibo. Finally, a mathematical model based on four epidemic waves revealed that the cases are increasing significantly over time after the episode that occurred in the Las Pulgas Market.

MODELING CHOLERA TRANSMISSION UNDER DISEASE CONTROL MEASURES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
MARGARET BROWN ◽  
MIKO JIANG ◽  
CHAYU YANG ◽  
JIN WANG
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Education Programs ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Transmission Pathways ◽  
The Impact

We present a new mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of cholera under disease control measures that include education programs and water sanitation. The model incorporates the impact of education programs into the disease transmission rates and that of water sanitation into the environmental pathogen dynamics. We conduct a detailed analysis to the autonomous system of the model and establish the local and global stabilities of its equilibria that characterize the threshold dynamics of cholera. We then perform an optimal control study on the general model with time-dependent controls and explore effective approaches to implement the education programs and water sanitation while balancing their costs. Our analysis and simulation highlight the complex interaction among the direct and indirect transmission pathways of the disease, the intrinsic growth of the environmental pathogen and the impact of multiple control measures, and their roles in collectively shaping the transmission dynamics of cholera.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Drug Resistance on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid Fever

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mushayabasa ◽  
C. P. Bhunu ◽  
E. T. Ngarakana-Gwasira
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Drug Resistance ◽  
Typhoid Fever ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
The Impact

Typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem in the developing world. Antibiotic therapy has been the main stay of treating typhoid fever for decades. The emergence of drug-resistant typhoid strain in the last two decades has been a major problem in tackling this scourge. A mathematical model for investigating the impact of drug resistance on the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever is developed. The reproductive number for the model has been computed. Numerical results in this study suggest that when a typhoid outbreak occurs with more drug-sensitive cases than drug-resistant cases, then it may take 10–15 months for symptomatic drug-resistant cases to outnumber all typhoid cases, and it may take an average of 15–20 months for nonsymptomatic drug-resistant cases to outnumber all drug-sensitive cases.

scholarly journals The transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in the UK: a mathematical model for evaluating costs and effectiveness of immunization programmes

1996 ◽  
Vol 116 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Williams ◽  
D. J. Nokes ◽  
G. F. Medley ◽  
R. M. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Immunization Programmes

SummaryComplex hepatitis B (HBV) epidemiology makes it difficult to evaluate and compare effectiveness of different immunization policies. A method for doing so is presented using a mathematical model of HBV transmission dynamics which can represent universal infant and adolescent vaccination strategies and those targeted at genito-urinary (GU) clinic attenders and infants born to infectious mothers. Model structure, epidemiological underpinning, and parameterization, are described. Data from the UK National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles is used to define patterns of sexual activity and GU clinic attendance; data deficiencies are discussed, in particular that of UK seroprevalence of HBV markers stratified by age, sex, and risk factors. General model predictions of endemic HBV marker prevalence in homosexual and heterosexual populations seem consistent with published UK data. The simulations exhibit non-linearities in the impact of different vaccination strategies. Estimated number of carriers prevented per vaccine dose for each strategy provides a measure of costs and benefits, varying temporally over the course of a programme, and with level of vaccine coverage. Screening before vaccination markedly increases payback per dose in homosexuals but not in heterosexuals; mass infant vaccination gives the poorest effectiveness ratio and vaccination of infants after antenatal screening the best; in general, increasing vaccine coverage yields lower pay-back per dose. The model provides a useful framework for evaluating costs and benefits of immunization programmes, but for precise quantitative comparison more UK epidemiological data is urgently needed.

scholarly journals A Non-conventional Approach to Understanding the Geographical Influence on the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and IFR

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udaya Ketipearachchi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Temperature Effect ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Conventional Approach ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract To understand and fight SARS-CoV-2, different models are needed (i.e. one model cannot answer all the questions). A mathematical model can be an effective tool for understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating possible strategies. Here, we present two models based on the indirect transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that explain the impact of ambient temperature and air pollution on SARS-CoV-2 outdoor and indoor behavior. These models discuss temperaturebased lethality of SARS-CoV-2 and its spread. In addition, if SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted through particulate matter or surfaces, the temperature effect on its half-life is discussed. The dew point should also be considered instead of just the humidity factor, since a combination of temperature and humidity may play an important role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Rehabilitation Centers on Illicit Drug Usage

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isa Baba ◽  
Saudatu Baba Sambo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Drug Users ◽  
Illicit Drug ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Drug Usage ◽  
Rehabilitation Centers ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper presents a mathematical model that studies the importance of treatment at rehabilitation centers intending to show the impact of the rehabilitation centers in minimizing illicit drug usage. We consider the global stability of endemic equilibrium using the properties of Volterra-Lyapunov matrices. Numerical simulations were carried out to show the impact of rehabilitation centers on illicit drug users.

scholarly journals Impact of Hygiene on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A Mathematical Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temidayo Oluwafemi ◽  
Emmanuel Azuaba
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model System ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Malaria continues to pose a major public health challenge, especially in developing countries, 219 million cases of malaria were estimated in 89 countries. In this paper, a mathematical model using non-linear differential equations is formulated to describe the impact of hygiene on Malaria transmission dynamics, the model is analyzed. The model is divided into seven compartments which includes five human compartments namely; Unhygienic susceptible human population, Hygienic Susceptible Human population, Unhygienic infected human population , hygienic infected human population and the Recovered Human population  and the mosquito population is subdivided into susceptible mosquitoes  and infected mosquitoes . The positivity of the solution shows that there exists a domain where the model is biologically meaningful and mathematically well-posed. The Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) point of the model is obtained, we compute the Basic Reproduction Number using the next generation method and established the condition for Local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and we thereafter obtained the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium by constructing the Lyapunov function of the model system. Also, sensitivity analysis of the model system was carried out to identify the influence of the parameters on the Basic Reproduction Number, the result shows that the natural death rate of the mosquitoes is most sensitive to the basic reproduction number.

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