scholarly journals Methods to Analyze Time-to-Event Data: The Cox Regression Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Samar Abd ElHafeez ◽  
Graziella D’Arrigo ◽  
Daniela Leonardis ◽  
Maria Fusaro ◽  
Giovanni Tripepi ◽  
...  

The Cox model is a regression technique for performing survival analyses in epidemiological and clinical research. This model estimates the hazard ratio (HR) of a given endpoint associated with a specific risk factor, which can be either a continuous variable like age and C-reactive protein level or a categorical variable like gender and diabetes mellitus. When the risk factor is a continuous variable, the Cox model provides the HR of the study endpoint associated with a predefined unit of increase in the independent variable (e.g., for every 1-year increase in age, 2 mg/L increase in C-reactive protein). A fundamental assumption underlying the application of the Cox model is proportional hazards; in other words, the effects of different variables on survival are constant over time and additive over a particular scale. The Cox regression model, when applied to etiological studies, also allows an adjustment for potential confounders; in an exposure-outcome pathway, a confounder is a variable which is associated with the exposure, is not an effect of the exposure, does not lie in the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome, and represents a risk factor for the outcome.

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siqing Wang ◽  
Aiya Qin ◽  
Gaiqin Pei ◽  
Zheng Jiang ◽  
Lingqiu Dong ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Whether cigarette smoking is associated with the progression of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) remains uncertain; therefore, we aimed to evaluate the effect of cigarette smoking on the prognosis of IgAN. Methods We divided 1239 IgAN patients from West China Hospital of Sichuan University who met the inclusion criteria into smoker (current or former) and non-smoker groups. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD: eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or undergoing renal replacement treatment) and/or eGFR decreased by > 50%. Kaplan–Meier, correlation, logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed. The association between cigarette smoking and IgAN was further verified by propensity-score-matched cohort analysis. Results During the mean follow-up period of 61 months, 19% (40/209) of the smoker group and 11% (110/1030) of the non-smoker group reached the study endpoint (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that cigarette smoking (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.58; p = 0.043) was an independent risk factor predicting poor renal progression in IgAN, and that IgAN patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 3–4 were more susceptible to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001). After propensity score matching (PSM), a significant correlation between cigarette smoking and renal outcomes in IgAN patients was seen. Furthermore, Spearman’s correlation test revealed that smoking dose was negatively correlated with eGFR (r = 0.141; p < 0.001) and positively related with proteinuria (r = 0.096; p = 0.001). Conclusions Cigarette smoking is an independent risk factor for IgAN progression, especially for advanced patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bender ◽  
Kristin Haferkorn ◽  
Michaela Friedrich ◽  
Eberhard Uhl ◽  
Marco Stein

Objective: The impact of increased C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin ratio on intra-hospital mortality has been investigated among patients admitted to general intensive care units (ICU). However, it was not investigated among patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This study aimed to investigate the impact of CRP/albumin ratio on intra-hospital mortality in patients with ICH. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on 379 ICH patients admitted between 02/2008 and 12/2017. Blood samples were drawn upon admission and the patients’ demographic, medical, and radiological data were collected. The identification of the independent prognostic factors for intra-hospital mortality was calculated using binary logistic regression and COX regression analysis. Results: Multivariate regression analysis shows that higher CRP/albumin ratio (odds ratio (OR) = 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.193–2.317, p = 0.003) upon admission is an independent predictor of intra-hospital mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that an increase of 1 in the CRP/albumin ratio was associated with a 15.3% increase in the risk of intra-hospital mortality (hazard ratio = 1.153, 95% CI = 1.005–1.322, p = 0.42). Furthermore, a CRP/albumin ratio cut-off value greater than 1.22 was associated with increased intra-hospital mortality (Youden’s Index = 0.19, sensitivity = 28.8, specificity = 89.9, p = 0.007). Conclusions: A CRP/albumin ratio greater than 1.22 upon admission was significantly associated with intra-hospital mortality in the ICH patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Je Hun Song ◽  
Hyuk Huh ◽  
Eunjin Bae ◽  
Jeonghwan Lee ◽  
Jung Pyo Lee ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) is considered a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) including chronic kidney disease (CKD). In this study, we investigated the association between serum homocysteine (Hcy) level and mortality according to the presence of CKD.Methods: Our study included data of 9,895 participants from the 1996–2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Moreover, linked mortality data were included and classified into four groups according to the Hcy level. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models using propensity-score were used to examine dose-response associations between Hcy level and mortality.Results: Of 9,895 participants, 1032 (21.2%) participants were diagnosed with CKD. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis including all participants, Hcy level was associated with all-cause mortality, compared with the 1st quartile in Model 3 (2nd quartile: hazard ratio (HR) 1.751, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.348-2.274, p<0.001; 3rd quartile: HR 2.220, 95% CI 1.726-2.855, p<0.001; 4th quartile: HR 3.776, 95% CI 2.952-4.830, p<0.001). In the non-CKD group, there was a significant association with all-cause mortality; however, this finding was not observed in the CKD group. The observed pattern was similar after propensity score matching. In the non-CKD group, overall mortality increased in proportion to Hcy concentration (2nd quartile: HR 2.195, 95% CI 1.299-3.709, p = 0.003; 3rd quartile: HR 2.607, 95% CI 1.570-4.332, p<0.001; 4th quartile: HR 3.720, 95% CI 2.254-6.139, p<0.001). However, the risk of all-cause mortality according to the quartile of Hcy level did not increase in the CKD groupConclusion: This study found a correlation between the Hcy level and mortality rate only in the non-CKD group. This altered risk factor patterns may be attributed to protein-energy wasting or chronic inflammation status that is accompanied by CKD.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Jun Choi ◽  
Do Sun Kwon ◽  
Taehee Kim ◽  
Jae Hwa Cho ◽  
Hyung Jung Kim ◽  
...  

AbstractAlanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels reflect skeletal muscle volume and general performance, which are associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) development and prognosis. This study aimed to investigate ALT levels as a risk factor for COPD development. This 13-year population-based retrospective observational cohort study included 422,452 participants for analysis. We classified groups according to the baseline ALT levels (groups 1–5: ALT (IU/L) < 10; 10–19; 20–29; 30–39; and ≥ 40, respectively). The incidence of COPD was the highest in group 1, decreasing as the group number increased in males, but not in females. The Cox regression analysis in males revealed that a lower ALT level, as a continuous variable, was a significant risk factor for COPD development [univariable, hazard ratio (HR): 0.992, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.991–0.994; multivariable, HR: 0.998, 95% CI: 0.996–0.999]. In addition, COPD was more likely to develop in the lower ALT level groups (groups 1–4; < 40 IU/L), than in the highest ALT level group (group 5; ≥ 40 IU/L) (univariable, HR: 1.341, 95% CI: 1.263–1.424; multivariable, HR: 1.097, 95% CI: 1.030–1.168). Our findings suggest that males with low ALT levels should be carefully monitored for COPD development.


Vascular ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. 170853812110627
Author(s):  
Gökhan Demirci ◽  
Ali Riza Demir ◽  
Begüm Uygur ◽  
Umit Bulut ◽  
Yalcin Avci ◽  
...  

Background The prognostic value of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) is of import in cardiovascular diseases. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the CAR in patients with asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). Material and Method We retrospectively evaluated 127 consecutive patients who underwent technically successful elective EVAR procedure between December 2014 and September 2020. The optimal CAR cut-off value was determined by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Based on the cut-off value, we investigated the association of CAR with long-term all-cause mortality. Results 32 (25.1%) of the patients experienced all-cause mortality during a mean 32.7 ± 21.7 months’ follow-up. In the group with mortality, CAR was significantly higher than in the survivor group (4.63 (2.60–11.88) versus 1.63 (0.72–3.24), p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier curves showed a higher incidence of all-cause mortality in patients with high CAR compared to patients with low CAR (log-rank test, p < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that glucose ≥ 110 mg/dL (HR: 2.740; 95% CI: 1.354–5.542; p = 0.005), creatinine ≥ 0.99 mg/dL (HR: 2.957, 95% CI: 1.282–6.819, p = 0.011) and CAR > 2.05 (HR: 8.190, 95% CI: 1.899–35.320, p = 0.005) were the independent predictors of mortality. Conclusion CAR was associated with a significant increase in postoperative long-term mortality in patients who underwent EVAR. Preoperatively calculated CAR can be used as an important prognostic factor.


Author(s):  
Nuttaradee Lojanapiwat ◽  
Md Rafiqul Islam ◽  
Martin Ridout ◽  
Sivakumar Subramaniam

Background: Accurate prognostication is essential in caring for palliative patients. Various prognostication tools have been validated in many settings in the past few years. Biomarkers of inflammation (albumin and C-reactive protein) are combined to calculate the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), which has been found to be a simple prognostic tool in this population. Objective: This retrospective cohort study was to evaluate mGPS as a prognostication tool for cancer patients admitted to an acute hospital in regional Australia. Methods: Adult cancer patients admitted to an acute Australian regional hospital during 2017 who had albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) tested were included. The mGPS was calculated based on their admission values and discharge values. Based on their score (0-2), groups were compared using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis for prognostication. Kaplan-Meier survival plots and median survival time from admission and discharge were constructed. Results: A total of 170 patient records were reviewed of which 95 had admission and discharge mGPS scores available for analysis. Of those, 86 had died at the time of data analysis. The median survival for admission mGPS 0, 1, 2 was 168,156 and 74 days. For discharge mGPS 0, 1, 2 medians were 168,119 and 70 days. On multi variate analysis admission mGPS 2 showed Hazard ratio of 2.29 (95% CI 1.16-4.56, p -0.02) and discharge mGPS 2 of 2.07 (95% CI 0.95-4.50, p value 0.07). Conclusions: In this study, mGPS was able to differentiate cancer patients into various prognostic groups. Further studies in regional acute hospitals could validate this prospectively with a multi-center larger sample size.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 204062232092202
Author(s):  
You Deng ◽  
Lin Lin ◽  
Xiaofei Fan ◽  
Binxin Cui ◽  
Lijun Hou ◽  
...  

Background: The 5 m gait speed (5MGS), a simple and reliable performance metric and surrogate indicator of frailty, consistently predicts adverse events in elders. Additionally, MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) scores fail to capture nutritional and functional decline of cirrhotic patients that may confer excess mortality. We hypothesized that 5MGS might be associated with all-cause mortality, and that inclusion of frailty assessment within MELD-Na could improve the prediction of mortality in cirrhosis. Methods: 5MGS was measured at baseline in 113 hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Survival status over 2 years and cirrhosis-related complications were recorded. We evaluated the prognostic value of 5MGS (as a continuous variable and as a dichotomous variable). The definition of slow versus preserved 5MGS was 0.8 ms−1 based on previous publication. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, a novel MELDNa-5MGS score was derived. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves estimated discrimination between the new score model and established prognostic indices. Results: The continuous 5MGS and slow 5MGS were independent predictors of all-cause mortality [5MGS: hazard ratio (HR) 0.133 (0.047–0.347), p < 0.001; slow 5MGS: HR 4.805 (1.536–15.026), p < 0.007]. The equation derived from Cox regression analysis was as follows: MELDNa-5MGS: MELD-Na score + 11 × slow 5MGS. The 2-year mortality in patients with high MELDNa-5MGS score was significantly higher ( p < 0.001). Discriminatory power was significantly better for MELDNa-5MGS than MELD-Na score (AUC: 0.802 versus 0.724, p = 0.014 for 1 year; 0.773 versus 0.709, p = 0.044 for 2 years). Conclusion: In cirrhotic patients, 5GMS is an independent risk factor of mortality. Modification of MELD-Na to include frailty estimated by low 5GMS is related to improved prognostication of mortality.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Berfu Korucu ◽  
Omer Faruk Akcay ◽  
Galip Guz

Abstract Background and Aims Type I membrane failure (T1MF), increased transport status with ultrafiltration, and solute removal inadequacy are among the most challenging issues in peritoneal dialysis (PD) continuity. Although quite common, the causes of T1MF are not fully understood. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with T1MF. Method This is a retrospective, single site, cohort study of incident adult peritoneal dialysis patients sampled between January 2000 and January 2020. Patients were classified as “increased transporters” who had two or more categories of a rise in peritoneal equilibration test (PET), and “stable transporters” who had had a rise of 1 or no categories from their baseline during follow-up. The four-hour dialysate/plasma creatinine ratio was used to classify PET categories. The study endpoint was five years for stable transporters, and at the time of two category rise in the PET test for increased transporters. Results Baseline demographics, diabetes frequency, residual renal function (RRF), non-phosphate baseline laboratory, parathormone levels, and PD modalities were similar between the increased transporters (n=48) and the stable transporters (n=93). Significantly more patients were using renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) blockers in stable transporters and high-glucose dialysates in increased transporters (p=0.03 and p&lt;0.01). Icodextrin, calcitriol, calcium-based phosphate binder use, and the number of peritonitis episodes were similar between the groups. Increased transporters reached the endpoint in 3.9(±0.7) years. Increased transporters had a higher baseline phosphate than stable transporters (p=0.02). The frequency of patients with an RRF and groups’ mean RRF in ml were similar at the endpoint (p=0.37, p=0.13). Increased transporters had a significantly higher baseline and endpoint CaXP than stable transporters (p&lt;0.01 and p=0.02). Baseline weekly peritoneal Kt/V and peritoneal creatinine clearance (PCrCl) were similar at baseline. Increased transporters had significantly lower endpoint peritoneal Kt/V and insignificantly lower endpoint PCrCl than stable transporters (p&lt;0.01 and p=0.05). ΔUF was negative for increased transporters and positive for stable transporters. Age, diabetes, peritonitis episodes, RAAS blocker use, and PD modality were insignificant in Cox regression analysis. A CaXP of &gt;55 was related to 2.51-fold, and high-glucose dialysates were associated with a 2.93-fold increased risk for a rise in transport status (p=0.01 and p&lt;0.01). Mean follow-up was 7.0 (±3.9) years for stable transporters and 5.6 (±2.0) years for increased transporters. Technical survival was significantly higher in stable transporters (p=0.03). Conclusion Our study revealed a CaXP of &gt;55 is a risk factor for a significant increase in transport status, presumably due to peritoneal calcification. The peritoneal Kt/V, PCrCl, and UF rates declined accordingly. The high-glucose dialysates are associated with a high risk in analyses. However, it is not possible to determine whether these solutions are the cause or the result of Type I membrane failure.


2022 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 107327482110531
Author(s):  
Yu-yuan Ma ◽  
Han Wang ◽  
Wei-dong Zhao ◽  
Yi-Fan Li ◽  
Jing-jing Wang ◽  
...  

Background Breast cancer (BC), especially metastatic BC, is one of the most lethal diseases in women. CA 125 and CA 15-3 are commonly used indicators for diagnosis and prognosis of BC. Some serological indicators, such as lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and C-reactive protein (CRP), can also be used to assess the prognosis and progression in BC. Methods Univariate Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis were performed to identify prognostic factors and build prognostic models. We distributed the patients into 2 groups based on the median risk score, analyzed prognosis by Kaplan–Meier curve, and screened independent prognostic factors by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Result We identified 4 indicators-LDH, CRP, CA 15-3, and CA 125—related to the prognosis in BC and established a prognostic model. The high LDH group showed worse overall survival (OS) than low LDH group ( P = .017; hazard ratio (HR), 1.528; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.055-2.215). The high CRP group showed worse OS than low CRP group ( P = .004; HR, 1.666; 95% CI, 1.143-2.429). The high CA153 group showed worse OS than low CA 15-3 group (P=.011; HR, 1.563; 95% CI, 1.075-2.274). The high CA 125 group showed worse OS than low CA 125 group ( P = .021; HR, 1.499; 95% CI, 1.031-2.181). The area under the curve for risk score was .824, Ki-67 was .628, age was .511, and grade was .545. Risk score was found to be an independent prognostic factor using multivariate Cox regression analysis. Conclusion We successfully established an optimization model by combining 4 prognosis-related indicators to assess the prognosis in patients with metastatic BC.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenjia Tang ◽  
Yanting Dong ◽  
Lusi Lu ◽  
Nan Zhang

Objective: This study was designed to explore the relationships between the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with subacute thyroiditis (SAT). Design: This is a single-center retrospective study. Patients: Eighty-nine patients with SAT who were hospitalized in the Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital in Zhejiang, China, from October 2014 to September 2020 were included. Methods: The Mann–Whitney U-test, chi-square test, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to identify the relationships between clinical characteristics and outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the optimal cutoff levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). Results: The hypothyroidism and recurrence rates were 15.7% and 16.9%, respectively. CRP (≥72.0 mg/L), TSH (<0.02 mIU/L), and free triiodothyronine (fT3) (≥4.10 pg/mL) were associated with hypothyroidism. The cutoff level was 97.80 mg/L for CRP (area under the curve (AUC), 0.717, p= 0.014; sensitivity, 57.1%; specificity, 84.0%) and 0.10 mIU/L for TSH (AUC, 0.752, p = 0.004; sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 46.0%) by ROC curve analysis for hypothyroidism. The factors under study were not associated with recurrence. Conclusion: CRP and TSH were risk factors for hypothyroidism in SAT. Thyroid functions should be monitored closely to detect hypothyroidism early, especially in patients with CRP levels of more than 97.80 mg/L and TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L.


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