scholarly journals Rise and Decay of the COVID-19 Epidemics in the USA and the State of New York in the First Half of 2020: A Nonlinear Physics Perspective Yielding Novel Insights

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Till D. Frank
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Stability Parameters ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
The Stability

As of December 2020, since the beginning of the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed worldwide more than 1 million lives and has changed human life in unprecedented ways. Despite the fact that the pandemic is far from over, several countries managed at least temporarily to make their first-wave COVID-19 epidemics to subside to relatively low levels. Combining an epidemiological compartment model and a stability analysis as used in nonlinear physics and synergetics, it is shown how the first-wave epidemics in the state of New York and nationwide in the USA developed through three stages during the first half of the year 2020. These three stages are the outbreak stage, the linear stage, and the subsiding stage. Evidence is given that the COVID-19 outbreaks in these two regions were due to instabilities of the COVID-19 free states of the corresponding infection dynamical systems. It is shown that from stage 1 to stage 3, these instabilities were removed, presumably due to intervention measures, in the sense that the COVID-19 free states were stabilized in the months of May and June in both regions. In this context, stability parameters and key directions are identified that characterize the infection dynamics in the outbreak and subsiding stages. Importantly, it is shown that the directions in combination with the sign-switching of the stability parameters can explain the observed rise and decay of the epidemics in the state of New York and the USA. The nonlinear physics perspective provides a framework to obtain insights into the nature of the COVID-19 dynamics during outbreak and subsiding stages and allows to discuss possible impacts of intervention measures. For example, the directions can be used to determine how different populations (e.g., exposed versus symptomatic individuals) vary in size relative to each other during the course of an epidemic. Moreover, the timeline of the computationally obtained stages can be compared with the history of the implementation of intervention measures to discuss the effectivity of such measures.

Library advocacy starts at home

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Borges
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Public Libraries ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Web Resource ◽  
Library Users ◽  
The Usa

PurposeTo give a quick and easy approach to library advocacy, with regard to the ongoing needs of keeping in touch with stakeholders due to poor or reducing government funding for public libraries, librarians are in the situation of having to advocate in new and different ways.Design/methodology/approachGiven the state of New York and federal funding, this approach explores the best practices that anyone can apply to approach stakeholders and policy makers for more funding.FindingsFunding for libraries in the USA is often tied to “who” the library knows and this article gives a direct “how to” approach that can be used throughout the local, state or federal lobbying process. Especially in meeting the sophisticated demands of library users, this approach ties funding to patron activities, such as reading, electronic resources and programming.Originality/valueThis snapshot on advocacy can give those in the front lines or new to the advocacy process a way to start thinking in new ways to getting an advocacy action plan in place. A web resource of state activities in the State of New York offers resources on advocacy, specifically targeted to library advocates. Other benefits include developing messages and building coalitions.

scholarly journals WHEN GOD TALKS BACK. UNDERSTANDING THE AMERICAN ENGANGELICAL RELATIONSHIP WITH GOD. ALFRED A KNOPF, NEW YORK.

Al-Albab ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya Luhrmann ◽  
Reviewed by: Hatib Abdul Kadir
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Belief In God ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Right ◽  
American Churches

This book is started with the main question, how come some people in the USA believe in an invisible being, that is God. How has belief in God come to influence people’s lives? How has God come to be really present in human life? Almost 100 percent people in the US, believe in God according to a Gallup Poll (Luhrmann, 2012: xi). In addition, religious enthusiasm for American has grown increasingly rapidly. Throughout the 20th century, American churches and congregations have developed remarkably (Luhrmann, 14). Even Luhrmann gives an example about the paradoxical things. Many people thought that the hippie vision would bring radical revolutionaries movement that threated the right wing. As a contrary, Christian Hippies play significant roles in making religion to be able publicly accepted (even though there were on drugs) (Luhrmann 16-17)

scholarly journals Modeling the dynamics of COVID19 spread during and after social distancing: interpreting prolonged infection plateaus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia L. Komarova ◽  
Dominik Wodarz
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Network Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Decline Phase ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Infection Models ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Infection Spread

AbstractNon-pharmaceutical intervention measures, such as social distancing, have so far been the only means to slow the spread of COVID19. In the United States, strict social distancing has resulted in different types infection dynamics. In some states, such as New York, extensive infection spread was followed by a pronounced decline of infection levels. In other states, such as California, less infection spread occurred before strict social distancing, and a different pattern was observed. Instead of a pronounced infection decline, a long-lasting plateau is evident, characterized by similar daily new infection levels. While these plateau dynamics cannot be readily reproduced with standard SIR infection models, we show that network models, in which individuals and their social contacts are explicitly tracked, can reproduce the plateau if network connections are cut due to social distancing measures. The reason is that in networks characterized by a 2D spatial structure, infection tends to spread quadratically with time, but as edges are randomly removed, the infection spreads along nearly one-dimensional infection “corridors”, resulting in plateau dynamics. Interestingly, the plateau dynamics are predicted to eventually transition into an infection decline phase without any further increase in social distancing measures. Additionally, the models suggest that a potential second wave becomes significantly less pronounced if social distancing is only relaxed once the dynamics have transitioned to the decline phase. The network models analyzed here allow us to interpret and reconcile different infection dynamics during social distancing observed in various US states.

scholarly journals Exploring the influence of human mobility factors and spread prediction on early COVID-19 in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Zheng ◽  
Zhixiang Xie ◽  
Yaochen Qin ◽  
Kun Wang ◽  
Yan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Administrative Units

Abstract Background COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly around the world. In this context, how to accurately predict the turning point, duration and final scale of the epidemic in different countries, regions or cities is key to enabling decision makers and public health departments to formulate intervention measures and deploy resources. Methods Based on COVID-19 surveillance data and human mobility data, this study predicts the epidemic trends of national and state regional administrative units in the United States from July 27, 2020, to January 22, 2021, by constructing a SIRD model considering the factors of “lockdown” and “riot”. Results (1) The spread of the epidemic in the USA has the characteristics of geographical proximity. (2) During the lockdown period, there was a strong correlation between the number of COVID-19 infected cases and residents’ activities in recreational areas such as parks. (3) The turning point (the point of time in which active infected cases peak) of the early epidemic in the USA was predicted to occur in September. (4) Among the 10 states experiencing the most severe epidemic, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and California are all predicted to meet the turning point in a concentrated period from July to September, while the turning point in Georgia is forecast to occur in December. No turning points in Florida and Arizona were foreseen for the forecast period, with the number of infected cases still set to be growing rapidly. Conclusions The model was found accurately to predict the future trend of the epidemic and can be applied to other countries. It is worth noting that in the early stage there is no vaccine or approved pharmaceutical intervention for this disease, making the fight against the pandemic reliant on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, reducing mobility, focusing on personal protection and increasing social distance remain still the most effective measures to date.

9/11 and Armageddon: the Christian Right and George W. Bush

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-50
Author(s):  
Göran Gunner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Christian Right ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Religious Leader ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Mega Church ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Jerry Falwell ◽  
High Degree

Authors from the Christian Right in the USA situate the September 11 attack on New York and Washington within God's intentions to bring America into the divine schedule for the end of the world. This is true of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, and other leading figures in the ‘Christian Coalition’. This article analyses how Christian fundamentalists assess the roles of the USA, the State of Israel, Islam, Iraq, the European Union and Russia within what they perceive to be the divine plan for the future of the world, especially against the background of ‘9/11’. It argues that the ideas of the Christian Right and of President George W. Bush coalesce to a high degree. Whereas before 9/11 many American mega-church preachers had aspirations to direct political life, after the events of that day the President assumes some of the roles of a mega-religious leader.

Settler Colonialism and the Revolutionary War

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-35
Author(s):  
Andrea Lynn Smith
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Settler Colonialism ◽  
Revolutionary War ◽  
The State ◽  
The Public ◽  
150Th Anniversary ◽  
End Point ◽  
Indian Land ◽  
Indian Relations ◽  
Major General

The centerpiece of New York State’s 150th anniversary of the Sullivan Expedition of 1779 was a pageant, the “Pageant of Decision.” Major General John Sullivan’s Revolutionary War expedition was designed to eliminate the threat posed by Iroquois allied with the British. It was a genocidal operation that involved the destruction of over forty Indian villages. This article explores the motivations and tactics of state officials as they endeavored to engage the public in this past in pageant form. The pageant was widely popular, and served the state in fixing the expedition as the end point in settler-Indian relations in New York, removing from view decades of expropriations of Indian land that occurred well after Sullivan’s troops left.

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