scholarly journals Exploring the influence of human mobility factors and spread prediction on early COVID-19 in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Zheng ◽  
Zhixiang Xie ◽  
Yaochen Qin ◽  
Kun Wang ◽  
Yan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Administrative Units

Abstract Background COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly around the world. In this context, how to accurately predict the turning point, duration and final scale of the epidemic in different countries, regions or cities is key to enabling decision makers and public health departments to formulate intervention measures and deploy resources. Methods Based on COVID-19 surveillance data and human mobility data, this study predicts the epidemic trends of national and state regional administrative units in the United States from July 27, 2020, to January 22, 2021, by constructing a SIRD model considering the factors of “lockdown” and “riot”. Results (1) The spread of the epidemic in the USA has the characteristics of geographical proximity. (2) During the lockdown period, there was a strong correlation between the number of COVID-19 infected cases and residents’ activities in recreational areas such as parks. (3) The turning point (the point of time in which active infected cases peak) of the early epidemic in the USA was predicted to occur in September. (4) Among the 10 states experiencing the most severe epidemic, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and California are all predicted to meet the turning point in a concentrated period from July to September, while the turning point in Georgia is forecast to occur in December. No turning points in Florida and Arizona were foreseen for the forecast period, with the number of infected cases still set to be growing rapidly. Conclusions The model was found accurately to predict the future trend of the epidemic and can be applied to other countries. It is worth noting that in the early stage there is no vaccine or approved pharmaceutical intervention for this disease, making the fight against the pandemic reliant on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, reducing mobility, focusing on personal protection and increasing social distance remain still the most effective measures to date.

scholarly journals The effect of mobility restrictions on the SARS-CoV-2 diffusion during the first wave: what are the impacts in Sweden, USA, France and Colombia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Telle Olivier ◽  
Samuel Benkimoun ◽  
Richard Paul
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Individual

ResuméCombined with sanitation and social distancing measures, control of human mobility has quickly been targeted as a major leverage to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a great majority of countries worldwide. The extent to which such measures were successful, however, is uncertain (Gibbs et al. 2020; Kraemer et al. 2020). Very few studies are quantifying the relation between mobility, lockdown strategies and the diffusion of the virus in different countries. Using the anonymised data collected by one of the major social media platforms (Facebook) combined with spatial and temporal Covid-19 data, the objective of this research is to understand how mobility patterns and SARS-CoV-2 diffusion during the first wave are connected in four different countries: the west coast of the USA, Colombia, Sweden and France. Our analyses suggest a relatively modest impact of lockdown on the spread of the virus at the national scale. Despite a varying impact of lockdown on mobility reduction in these countries (83% in France and Colombia, 55% in USA, 10% in Sweden), no country successfully implemented control measures to stem the spread of the virus. As observed in Hubei (Chinazzi et al. 2020), it is likely that the virus had already spread very widely prior to lockdown; the number of affected administrative units in all countries was already very high at the time of lockdown despite the low testing levels. The second conclusion is that the integration of mobility data considerably improved the epidemiological model (as revealed by the QAIC). If inter-individual contact is a fundamental element in the study of the spread of infectious diseases, it is also the case at the level of administrative units. However, this relational dimension is little understood beyond the individual scale mostly due to the lack of mobility data at this scale. Fortunately, these types of data are getting increasingly provided by social media or mobile operators, and they can be used to help administrations to observe changes in movement patterns and/or to better locate where to implement disease control measures such as vaccination (Pollina & Busvine 2020; Pullano et al. 2020; Romm et al. 2020).

scholarly journals Analysis of Collective Response Reveals that COVID-19-Related Activities Start From the End of 2019 in Mainland China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Liu ◽  
Tongtong Huang ◽  
Haoyi Xiong ◽  
Jizhou Huang ◽  
Jingbo Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Collective Response ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Dynamic Time

While the COVID-19 outbreak is making an impact at a global scale, the collective response to the pandemic becomes the key to analyzing past situations, evaluating current measures, and formulating future predictions. In this paper, we analyze the public reactions to the pandemic using search engine data and mobility data from Baidu Search and Baidu Maps respectively, where we particularly pay attentions to the early stage of pandemics and find early signals from the collective response to COVID-19. First, we correlate the number of confirmed cases per day to daily search queries of a large number of keywords through Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), where the keywords top in the most critical days are believed the most relevant to the pandemic. We then categorize the ranking lists of keywords according to the specific regions of the search, such as Wuhan, Mainland China, the USA, and the whole world. Through the analysis on search, we succeed in identifying COVID-19 related collective response would not be earlier than the end of 2019 in Mainland China. Finally, we confirm this observation again using human mobility data, where we specifically compare the massive mobility traces, including the real-time population densities inside key hospitals and inter-city travels departing from/arriving in Wuhan, from 2018 to 2020. No significant changes have been witnessed before December, 2019.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

scholarly journals The Emergence of Technology in Physical Education: A General Bibliometric Analysis with a Focus on Virtual and Augmented Reality

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2728
Author(s):  
Ferran Calabuig-Moreno ◽  
María Huertas González-Serrano ◽  
Javier Fombona ◽  
Marta García-Tascón
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Physical Education ◽  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Virtual And Augmented Reality ◽  
Teaching Learning

Technology has been gradually introduced into our society, and the field of education is no exception due to technology’s ability to improve the teaching–learning process. Furthermore, within the area of physical education (PE), its importance has been highlighted by the existence of specific apps for physical activity that can be used inside and outside the classroom to assess physical condition, as well as through the potential that virtual and augmented reality can have in such assessment. Therefore, the main objectives for this study were (1) to perform a bibliometric analysis of the articles published in the Web of Science (WoS) on technology in PE and (2) to analyze the articles published on augmented or virtual reality in PE found through this search. The results show that although studies on technology in PE (461 articles) have begun to consolidate over the last five years (there was a turning point in 2015), with the USA being the most influential country in this area, specific research on the use of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) is still at a very early stage (22 articles with a small growth in 2017), with Spain being the most influential country; much more research is needed to achieve its consolidation.

scholarly journals Rise and Decay of the COVID-19 Epidemics in the USA and the State of New York in the First Half of 2020: A Nonlinear Physics Perspective Yielding Novel Insights

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Till D. Frank
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Stability Parameters ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
The Stability

As of December 2020, since the beginning of the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed worldwide more than 1 million lives and has changed human life in unprecedented ways. Despite the fact that the pandemic is far from over, several countries managed at least temporarily to make their first-wave COVID-19 epidemics to subside to relatively low levels. Combining an epidemiological compartment model and a stability analysis as used in nonlinear physics and synergetics, it is shown how the first-wave epidemics in the state of New York and nationwide in the USA developed through three stages during the first half of the year 2020. These three stages are the outbreak stage, the linear stage, and the subsiding stage. Evidence is given that the COVID-19 outbreaks in these two regions were due to instabilities of the COVID-19 free states of the corresponding infection dynamical systems. It is shown that from stage 1 to stage 3, these instabilities were removed, presumably due to intervention measures, in the sense that the COVID-19 free states were stabilized in the months of May and June in both regions. In this context, stability parameters and key directions are identified that characterize the infection dynamics in the outbreak and subsiding stages. Importantly, it is shown that the directions in combination with the sign-switching of the stability parameters can explain the observed rise and decay of the epidemics in the state of New York and the USA. The nonlinear physics perspective provides a framework to obtain insights into the nature of the COVID-19 dynamics during outbreak and subsiding stages and allows to discuss possible impacts of intervention measures. For example, the directions can be used to determine how different populations (e.g., exposed versus symptomatic individuals) vary in size relative to each other during the course of an epidemic. Moreover, the timeline of the computationally obtained stages can be compared with the history of the implementation of intervention measures to discuss the effectivity of such measures.

The Year in Review

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 255-327
Author(s):  
Avril McDonald
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Criminal Law ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
International Human Rights Law ◽  
Human Rights Law ◽  
Defining Moments ◽  
The Usa

The defining moments of 2001, the terrorist attacks of September 11 against the United States of America, marked a turning point in international law and relations. By their scale and audaciousness, overnight they helped to propel the issue of international terrorism to the top of the international security agenda and particularly that of the USA, with consequences for many branches of international law, including thejus ad bellum, thejus in bello, international law relating to terrorism, international human rights law and international criminal law, that were just beginning to be felt as the year closed.

The comparison of social studies textbooks in Turkey, the United States and France based on values education

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 630-640
Author(s):  
Tuğba Kafadar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Social Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Values Education ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Social Studies Textbooks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Self Transcendence

The present study aimed to compare social studies or equivalent course textbooks in Turkey, the United States, and France (ethics-citizenship education) based on values education content. The study was designed with the holistic multi-case method, a qualitative research approach, and the study data were collected with document analysis. The study group was assigned with criterion sampling, a purposive sampling method. The study data were analyzed with the content analysis technique. The study findings were as follows: Value dimensions in the textbooks employed in the three countries were similar in the self-transcendence value dimension in Turkey and France, while self-enhancement value dimension was identified in the US (New York) textbooks. Analysis of the value types identified in the textbooks of the three countries demonstrated that the achievement category was prominent in Turkish and American (New York) textbooks, while universalism-concern value type was observed in France. Modesty value type was observed the least in the USA (New York) and France textbooks. However, the least frequent category was prestige in Turkish textbooks. The instruction approaches that were frequently observed in the textbook learning-instruction processes in the three countries were similar and the value explanation approach was adopted in Turkish and American (New York) social studies and French ethics-citizenship textbooks. The least frequent value instruction approaches in the textbooks were value instruction by observation in Turkish and French textbooks and moral reasoning method in the American (New York) social studies textbooks. Furthermore, American (New York) textbooks did not employ the value instruction by observation approach.

The Language of Conflict in the Focus of Quantitative Content Analysis of the USA Press Reports (on the Example of New York Times Article Archive for the Period from 1851 to 2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
M. Chekunova
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Quantitative Content Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Public Consciousness ◽  
The Usa ◽  
History Of

The presented article tests the application of the method of quantitative content analysis to identify the spread of confrontational tendencies in the public consciousness. It proves the broad possibilities of monitoring and forecasting conflicts in society on the basis of it. The source base of the study was the archives of the New York Times newspaper for the period from 1851 to 2019. The author calculated the number of used indicative conflict-containing lexemes, the integrated dynamics of which expresses the coefficient of confrontation. The coefficient of confrontation correlates with the dynamics of conflicts in the history of the United States and the world, explanations of the increase and decrease of the corresponding indicators are given. The maximum phases of the confrontation coefficient fall on the period of the Second World War and the modern period. Modern maximization is viewed as a significant threat to the security of Russian society.

scholarly journals Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (49) ◽  
pp. eabd6370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Pei ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.

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