scholarly journals СИСТЕМА ПІДТРИМКИ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ ПРИ ПРОВЕДЕННІ ВІТРЕКТОМІ У ХВОРИХ НА ДІАБЕТИЧНУ ПРОЛІФЕРАТИВНУ РЕТИНОПАТІЮ

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
А. M. Ruban
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
System Support ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Three Samples ◽  
Diabetic Proliferative Retinopathy ◽  
Diabetic Vitrectomy

The article presents the some approaches to create a system support of making decision during miniinvasive diabetic vitrectomy in patients with diabetic proliferative retinopathy, promotes objective assessment of individual risk-management for patient and allows optimize ophthalmological care for them. This was a retrospective study of 145 patients (145 eyes) who underwent combined sutureless vitrectomy for the complications of proliferative diabetic retinopathy. The study and analysis of the clinical characteristics (N-145) and 60 kinds of complications have selected 33 factors, characterizing the general condition of the patient, ophthalmic status which have been integrated into the risk map. Prediction of surgical intervention was determined by the amount of points. Total risk was studied in three samples of “training” (145 patients), «control» (50 patients) and the “examination” (30 cases). Based on 225 observations determined the dependence of an adverse operation of points of risk and identified 4 risk levels: low risk (first stage), the likelihood of an adverse outcome is less than 0.05; average risk is the likelihood of an adverse outcome is 0.05-0.4; high risk-the probability of an adverse up 0.41-0.9 and extreme risks, the likelihood of an adverse outcome is greater than 0.9.

scholarly journals СИСТЕМА ПІДТРИМКИ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ ПРИ ПРОВЕДЕННІ ВІТРЕКТОМІЇ У ПАЦІЄНТІВ З ПРОЛІФЕРАТИВНОЮ ДІАБЕТИЧНОЮ РЕТИНОПАТІЄЮ

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Ruban
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Proliferative Retinopathy ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
System Support ◽  
Diabetic Proliferative Retinopathy

The article presents the some approaches to create a system support of making decision during vitrectomy in patients with diabetic proliferative retinopathy, promotes objective assessment of individual risk-management for patient and allows optimize ophthalmological care for them.

scholarly journals ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ЛОКАЛЬНОГО ІНДИВІДУАЛЬНОГО ПРОТОКОЛУ ХІРУРГІЧНОГО ЛІКУВАННЯ ХВОРИХ НА ПРОЛІФЕРАТИВНУ ДІАБЕТИЧНУ РЕТИНОПАТІЮ

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Ruban
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Functional Results ◽  
Proliferative Retinopathy ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
System Support ◽  
Diabetic Proliferative Retinopathy ◽  
Comparative Results ◽  
New System

he article propose a new system support of making decision during vitrectomy in patients with diabetic proliferative retinopathy, according by objective assessment of individual risk-management. The article presents some comparative results (anatomical and functional results, rate of complications) between two groups: with new and standard approaches.

scholarly journals Assessing the geographical distribution of comorbidity among commercially insured individuals in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Mannie ◽  
Hadi Kharrazi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Healthcare Utilization ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Healthcare Needs

Abstract Background Comorbidities are strong predictors of current and future healthcare needs and costs; however, comorbidities are not evenly distributed geographically. A growing need has emerged for comorbidity surveillance that can inform decision-making. Comorbidity-derived risk scores are increasingly being used as valuable measures of individual health to describe and explain disease burden in populations. Methods This study assessed the geographical distribution of comorbidity and its associated financial implications among commercially insured individuals in South Africa (SA). A retrospective, cross-sectional analysis was performed comparing the geographical distribution of comorbidities for 2.6 million commercially insured individuals over 2016–2017, stratified by geographical districts in SA. We applied the Johns Hopkins ACG® System across the insurance claims data of a large health plan administrator in SA to measure comorbidity as a risk score for each individual. We aggregated individual risk scores to determine the average risk score per district, also known as the comorbidity index (CMI), to describe the overall disease burden of each district. Results We observed consistently high CMI scores in districts of the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal provinces for all population groups before and after age adjustment. Some areas exhibited almost 30% higher healthcare utilization after age adjustment. Districts in the Northern Cape and Limpopo provinces had the lowest CMI scores with 40% lower than expected healthcare utilization in some areas after age adjustment. Conclusions Our results show underlying disparities in CMI at national, provincial, and district levels. Use of geo-level CMI scores, along with other social data affecting health outcomes, can enable public health departments to improve the management of disease burdens locally and nationally. Our results could also improve the identification of underserved individuals, hence bridging the gap between public health and population health management efforts.

scholarly journals The Positive Impact of Task Familiarity, Risk Propensity, and Need For Cognition on Observed Timing Decisions in a Security Game

Games ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
David Reitter ◽  
Jens Grossklags
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Need For Cognition ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Risk Propensity ◽  
Behavioral Studies ◽  
Temporal Estimation ◽  
External Risk ◽  
Task Experience ◽  
Security Game

This paper addresses the role of personality characteristics in decisions on the timing of an action, such as in the context of security and safety choices. Examples of such decisions include when to check log files for intruders and when to monitor financial accounts for fraud or errors. Two behavioral studies (n = 461) are conducted. Individual risk propensity and need for cognition are obtained via scales. The task is a game against an opaque computer opponent in which participants make decisions about the timing of actions in response to an unknown external risk factor. The task is not payoff-neutral w.r.t. risk. Difficulty is varied through the availability of explicitly given or decision-critical information, which is observable visually (Study 1) or in temporal memory (Study 2). Across this problem space, we find that risk propensity is not generally a hindrance in timing tasks. Participants of average risk propensity generally benefit from a high need for cognition, particularly when externalized memory is available, as in Study 1. In the more difficult temporal-estimation task, need for cognition was associated with increased payoffs from task experience. In both tasks, higher risk propensity in participants was associated with increased improvements in payoffs from task experience.

Target Reliability Levels for Design and Assessment of Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Wenxing Zhou ◽  
Joe Zhou ◽  
Brian Rothwell ◽  
Martin McLamb
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Detailed Consideration ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Natural Gas Pipelines ◽  
Risk Criteria ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
Pipeline Design

This paper proposes a set of reliability targets that can be used in the design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines. The targets were developed as part of a PRCI-sponsored project that aims to establish reliability-based methods as a viable alternative for pipeline design and assessment. The proposed targets are calibrated to meet risk levels that are considered widely acceptable. The proposed criteria are based on a detailed consideration of both societal and individual risk criteria. Two societal risk criteria were considered; the first based on a fixed expectation of the number of fatalities and the second based on a risk aversion function as characterized by an F/N relationship. Societal risk criteria were calibrated to match or exceed the average safety levels implied by current codes. Individual risk criteria were based on published tolerable levels. The target reliability levels corresponding to the three criteria are presented and a recommended set of targets is presented.

scholarly journals Individualized risk trajectories for iron-related adverse outcomes in repeat blood donors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Alton Russell ◽  
David Schienker ◽  
Brian Custer
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Blood Donation ◽  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
Iron Status ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Iron Stores

ABSTRACTBackgroundDespite a fingerstick hemoglobin requirement and 56-day minimum donation interval, repeat blood donation continues to cause and exacerbate iron deficiency.Study design and methodsUsing data from the REDS-II Donor Iron Status Evaluation study, we developed multiclass prediction models to estimate the competing risk of hemoglobin deferral and collecting blood from a donor with sufficient hemoglobin but low or absent underlying iron stores. We compared models developed with and without two biomarkers not routinely measured in most blood centers: ferritin and soluble transferrin receptor. We generated and analyzed ‘individual risk trajectories’: estimates of how each donors’ risk developed as a function of the time interval until their next donation attempt.ResultsWith standard biomarkers, the top model had a multiclass area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 77.6% (95% CI 77.3% - 77.8%). With extra biomarkers, multiclass AUC increased to 82.8% (95% CI 82.5% - 83.1%). In the extra biomarkers model, ferritin was the single most important variable, followed by the donation interval. We identified three risk archetypes: ‘fast recoverers’ (<10% risk of any adverse outcome on post-donation day 56), ‘slow recoverers’ (>60% adverse outcome risk on day 56 that declines to <35% by day 250), and ‘chronic high-risk’ (>85% risk of adverse outcome on day 250).DiscussionA longer donation interval reduced estimated risk of iron-related adverse events for most donors, but risk remained high for some. Tailoring safeguards to individual risk estimates could reduce blood collections from donors with low or absent iron stores.

scholarly journals Decision Making Based on the Results of Automatic Diagnostics of Parts and Assemblies of Rolling Stock

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 232-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. V. Burchenkov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Actual Condition ◽  
Technical Diagnostics ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Automatic Test ◽  
Wrong Decision ◽  
Controlled Object

The article reviews a preventive maintenance system for repairs, the main disadvantage of which is that it is essentially an open system of technical control that does not take into account objective assessment of rolling stock «as it is». The objective of the study was to review and summarize the existing researches and to word the proposals to develop the system of rolling stock maintenance. Based on the analysis of the researches in that field it is proposed to reduce material and labor costs for maintenance of cars by making the system of technical diagnostics closed. As a feedback, it is advisable to use an automatic test diagnostic control system that detects car defects while the train is running. It will significantly reduce the number of manual operations for inspecting rolling stock in the arrival parks of sorting stations and automate decision-making on possibility of subsequent operation of controlled rolling stock based on its actual condition. A technique is proposed for evaluating the results of technical diagnostics of rolling stock in which probabilistic estimates are used, dividing the most significant defects of the controlled object into three classes according to the degree of their significance for operation safety. It has been established that Weibull distribution corresponds to fatigue defective phenomena, while Rayleigh distribution corresponds to wear phenomena with constant or periodic workload. To identify defective car wheels and axle boxes, a dynamic system is proposed, which includes: the controlled object which is a wheel or axle box, automatic test diagnostic equipment and a resolver for deciding on further operation of the identified defective car. The optimal equation of the separating function of «false alarm» and «acceptance» is obtained on the basis of the Bayes criterion, which minimizes the average risk of making a wrong decision.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment in selected communes of the Łódź region

2017 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Marta Borowska-Stefańska
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Flood ◽  
Very High ◽  
Risk Categories

The aim of the article is to assess the present level of land development of flood risk areas in selected communes of the Łódź province in the context of potential negative consequences for people, the natural environment, cultural heritage and economic operations. The research includes urban as well as urban and rural communes (9 communes in total) of the Łódź province which display high and very high flood risk levels according to the methodology used in Flood protection operating plan for the Łódź province from 2013 ( Plan operacyjny… 2013). Uniejów and Warta have the highest synthetic flood risk levels due to the surface occupied by buildings and areas assigned to individual risk categories. In turn, Łowicz and Tomaszów Mazowiecki (town) display the highest general flood risk level due to diversification of buildings and areas of individual risk categories.

scholarly journals Assessment of Individual Cardiovascular Risk Among Population in Public Pharmacies Using the Heart-Score Questionnaire

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Maksimovic ◽  
Biljana Jakovljevic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Event ◽  
Parallel Implementation ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Heart Score

Abstract The SCORE model was calibrated according to mortality statistics for each European country. If it is used for the population aged 40-65, it will predict the possibility of fatal cardiovascular consequences that will appear after 10 years. The aim of this study was to investigate individual risk factors for cardiovascular complications in the adult population in the city of Belgrade. The study was designed as a cross-sectional study. Using Heart Score tool for determining of the total risk of CVD, could be projected to the age of 60, which may be of particular importance for guiding young adults, aged 20 to 30, with low absolute risk but already with an unhealthy risk profile, which will lead to a much higher risk as they age. In our study, predominately were present female participants without hypertension, then male and were dominate frequent non-smokers compared with smokers in male and female. Furthermore, in study population were more present smokers with longer duration of smoking (>10 years). After calculated Heart Score, we can see that 25.6% of respondents have a high risk of cardiovascular event, of which 19.6% high risk, 4.4% very high risk, and 1.6% extremely high risk of developing some an adverse fatal cardiovascular event. The present risk factors and high mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular disease indicate the need for taking preventive measures already in children, with the parallel implementation of population strategies and high risk.

Technical safety: use of concept risk assessment for field development certainty

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Colin Crowley ◽  
Dave Ashton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Design Feature ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Rule Sets ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures

As technology advances and field development possibilities grow, the need for earlier guidance on the safety performance of concept designs is greater than ever. The SNC-Lavalin concept risk assessment (CRA) tool is a transparent and rapidly deployable model that is based on sound, industry-accepted quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles. From the earliest stages of field development, when conceptualisation may be vague and data sparse, a wide range and variety of design options can still be assessed effectively and ranked on their safety performance. The CRA tool is proprietary software initially developed with BP and Shell. The model was first calibrated against 10 detailed QRAs, but is regularly benchmarked and updated with the most current failure rate data and has been used on nearly 50 projects globally. The database now incorporates established rule sets from hundreds of detailed QRAs performed, including floating liquefied natural gas and floating storage regasification units. This paper presents a CRA case study for a generic remote offshore field with a range of development options from conventional to minimal offshore facilities. The model calculates the associated risks for the options considered and is presented in terms of individual risk per annum, temporary refuge impairment frequency and potential loss of life. The results highlight the effects of each individual design feature on risk levels by comparison of similar options side by side, noting the main risk contributors and allowing investigation of the benefits of risk reduction measures. This enables identification of the best design features from each of the options and allows an optimised design to be carried forward.

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