Abstract P130: Risk Factors for Progression to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus From Prediabetes

Background and Aims: Individuals with prediabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), have approximately 50% risk to develop type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) within ten years. This paper examines risk factors for development of T2DM in individuals with prediabetes. Materials and Methods: A total of 2816 individuals were randomly selected and completed a careful physical examination and an oral glucose tolerance test. IFG and IGT was defined according to WHO. A representative sample of 1327 individuals were re-examined in a follow-up study after ten years. This study focuses on the participants who were diagnosed with prediabetes, IFG (n=67) and/or IGT (n=89) at baseline and who were re-examined at follow-up. Insulin resistance was estimated by HOMA-ir (Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance). Differences between the participants with prediabetes who developed T2DM and those who did not, were analyzed with general linear models and adjusted for age, sex and BMI. The risk to progress to T2DM in ten years was explored using binary logistic regression, adding the risk-factors one after another. Results: Of the 156 individuals with prediabetes 28% progressed to T2DM. Individuals who developed T2DM had higher BMI (α=3.2kg/m 2 , P<0.001), higher HbA1c (α=0.2 mmol/mol, P=0.047), higher C-reactive protein (α=3.3 mmol/L, P=0.040) and also significantly higher HOMAir (α=2.8, P<0.001) at base-line. The risk to develop T2DM increased in a step-wise manner in individuals with prediabetes when successively adding the risk-factors. Having a BMI ≥30kg/m 2 , a known family history for T2DM, HbA1c ≥37mmol/mol, HOMAir ≥2.8 and a low level of physical activity increased the risk to develop T2DM 5.6 times. Table 1. Conclusion: In individuals with prediabetes, those with additional risk-factors like obesity, HbA1c and HOMAir above mean values, family history for T2DM and a low level of physical activity require extra attention and intensive lifestyle interventions should be initiated.