Abstract 12818: Identifying Drivers of Hospital Readmission Through Analysis of Discrepant Predicted and Observed Readmission Status

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison Kratka ◽  
Jodi Dalto ◽  
Jennifer Beloff ◽  
Hojjat Salmasian ◽  
Kathryn Britton

Introduction: The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) lowers Medicare payments to hospitals with excess readmissions for certain conditions. We analyzed FY2020 HRRP data for Brigham and Women’s Hospital (July 2015 to June 2018). We conducted an analysis to identify patients with a discrepant expected vs observed readmission status for AMI, HF and CABG, followed by a chart review to explain this discrepancy. Methods: We calculated the risk of readmission for each patient, which was a summed value of the weights associated with all recorded comorbidities in the CMS data. A negative risk score indicated a patient was unlikely to be readmitted and a positive score indicated the opposite. We then performed a chart review focused on patients who had a high risk of readmission but were not readmitted, and those who had a low risk of readmission but were readmitted. Results: For AMI, 18% (108/596) of patients were readmitted within 30 days, CABG 14% (50/357) of patients, and HF 27% (367/1382) of patients. For AMI, risk of readmission scores ranged from 2.75 to -0.095. 5/596 patients had a negative score, and none were readmitted. For CABG, scores ranged from 2.64 to -0.31, 58/357 people had a negative score, and 6 were readmitted. For HF, scores ranged from 1.94 to 0.055. There were no negative scores, but of the lowest 20/1382 scores, 2 were readmitted. We then performed a chart review of 37 patients whose readmission status was discordant with their risk score, and examined why this occurred. For patients who were low risk but were readmitted across all three conditions, 30% (range 10% - 54%) did not have a follow up appointment scheduled before discharge, 11% (range 0% - 29%) did not have an advanced care plan and 95% (range 86% - 100%) had not had a SIC. Patients who were high risk but not readmitted were evaluated but did not have any notable characteristics. We did not find any evidence of under-coding of risk comorbidities that would have led to falsely low risk scores. Conclusions: Patients with more comorbidities were more likely to get readmitted, and we found these risk factors to be accurately recorded. Clinical care insights from this project include the need for more SICs and palliative care consults and a more targeted effort to ensure patients have appropriate follow-up.

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carly A. Conran ◽  
Zhuqing Shi ◽  
William Kyle Resurreccion ◽  
Rong Na ◽  
Brian T. Helfand ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Genome-wide association studies have identified thousands of disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A subset of these SNPs may be additively combined to generate genetic risk scores (GRSs) that confer risk for a specific disease. Although the clinical validity of GRSs to predict risk of specific diseases has been well established, there is still a great need to determine their clinical utility by applying GRSs in primary care for cancer risk assessment and targeted intervention. Methods This clinical study involved 281 primary care patients without a personal history of breast, prostate or colorectal cancer who were 40–70 years old. DNA was obtained from a pre-existing biobank at NorthShore University HealthSystem. GRSs for colorectal cancer and breast or prostate cancer were calculated and shared with participants through their primary care provider. Additional data was gathered using questionnaires as well as electronic medical record information. A t-test or Chi-square test was applied for comparison of demographic and key clinical variables among different groups. Results The median age of the 281 participants was 58 years and the majority were female (66.6%). One hundred one (36.9%) participants received 2 low risk scores, 99 (35.2%) received 1 low risk and 1 average risk score, 37 (13.2%) received 1 low risk and 1 high risk score, 23 (8.2%) received 2 average risk scores, 21 (7.5%) received 1 average risk and 1 high risk score, and no one received 2 high risk scores. Before receiving GRSs, younger patients and women reported significantly more worry about risk of developing cancer. After receiving GRSs, those who received at least one high GRS reported significantly more worry about developing cancer. There were no significant differences found between gender, age, or GRS with regards to participants’ reported optimism about their future health neither before nor after receiving GRS results. Conclusions Genetic risk scores that quantify an individual’s risk of developing breast, prostate and colorectal cancers as compared with a race-defined population average risk have potential clinical utility as a tool for risk stratification and to guide cancer screening in a primary care setting.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Leonenko ◽  
Emily Baker ◽  
Joshua Stevenson-Hoare ◽  
Annerieke Sierksma ◽  
Mark Fiers ◽  
...  

AbstractPolygenic Risk Scores (PRS) for AD offer unique possibilities for reliable identification of individuals at high and low risk of AD. However, there is little agreement in the field as to what approach should be used for genetic risk score calculations, how to model the effect of APOE, what the optimal p-value threshold (pT) for SNP selection is and how to compare scores between studies and methods. We show that the best prediction accuracy is achieved with a model with two predictors (APOE and PRS excluding APOE region) with pT<0.1 for SNP selection. Prediction accuracy in a sample across different PRS approaches is similar, but individuals’ scores and their associated ranking differ. We show that standardising PRS against the population mean, as opposed to the sample mean, makes the individuals’ scores comparable between studies. Our work highlights the best strategies for polygenic profiling when assessing individuals for AD risk.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Wu ◽  
Yi Yao ◽  
Yi Dong ◽  
Si Qi Yang ◽  
Deng Jing Zhou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background:We aimed to investigate an immune-related long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) signature that may be exploited as a potential immunotherapy target in colon cancer. Materials and methods: Colon cancer samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) containing available clinical information and complete genomic mRNA expression data were used in our study. We then constructed immune-related lncRNA co-expression networks to identify the most promising immune-related lncRNAs. According to the risk score developed from screened immune-related lncRNAs, the high-risk and low-risk groups were separated on the basis of the median risk score, which served as the cutoff value. An overall survival analysis was then performed to confirm that the risk score developed from screened immune-related lncRNAs could predict colon cancer prognosis. The prediction reliability was further evaluated in the independent prognostic analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). A principal component analysis (PCA) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were performed for functional annotation. Results: Information for a total of 514 patients was included in our study. After multiplex analysis, 12 immune-related lncRNAs were confirmed as a signature to evaluate the risk scores for each patient with cancer. Patients in the low-risk group exhibited a longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high-risk group. Additionally, the risk scores were an independent factor, and the Area Under Curve (AUC) of ROC for accuracy prediction was 0.726. Moreover, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses based on principal components and gene set enrichment analysis.Conclusions: Our study suggested that the signature consisting of 12 immune-related lncRNAs can provide an accessible approach to measuring the prognosis of colon cancer and may serve as a valuable antitumor immunotherapy.


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 3276-3276
Author(s):  
Natalie Laing Smith ◽  
Kelsey Fowlkes ◽  
Beth Boulden Warren ◽  
Beth Wathen ◽  
Bryce Clark ◽  
...  

Abstract Background - Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE), comprised of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is associated with significant mortality and morbidity and the overall incidence is rising, leading to its recognition as a leading quality and patient safety concern in pediatric hospitals. Risk-based prophylactic strategies are used in adults but a paucity of high quality evidence exists regarding the safety and efficacy of these interventions in the pediatric population. Defining an objective assessment of VTE risk to guide standard approaches to the use of mechanical and/or pharmacologic prophylaxis (in the absence of contraindications) is a desirable strategy to decrease HA-VTE incidence while minimizing potential risks associated with prophylaxis. Methods- With Institutional Review Board approval, we retrospectively evaluated electronic health record data from 39 patients age 0-21 years (inclusive) who developed VTE more than 48 hours after admission to Children's Hospital Colorado (Aurora, CO, USA) from January 1, 2014 - December 31, 2014. We identified purported HA-VTE cases via ICD-9 discharge diagnosis codes, then two different reviewers cross-referenced and validated with pharmacy and radiology records. We evaluated the HA-VTE patient's VTE risk scores (high, moderate, or low) using our institutional VTE prevention clinical care guideline (CCG) at discrete time points prior to clot diagnosis, as well as whether the patient received mechanical and/or pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis. Objectives: We sought to determine the ability of our CCG to accurately assess HA-VTE risk prior to clot development and to assess the utilization and timing of thromboprophylaxis. Results: Of the 39 patients who developed a HA-VTE during the study period, CCG-based risk assessment on the day before the event had identified four (10.3%) patients as low risk, two (5.1%) as moderate risk, and 33 (84.6%) as high risk, as seen in Table 1. This distribution represents an overall increase in risk score compared to those determined on admission when 13 (33.3%) were low risk, 4 (10.3%) were moderate risk, and 22 (56.4%) were high risk. Admission risk scores tended to hold steady or increase during the hospitalization (Figure 1) and only one patient experienced a decrease in risk level prior to HA-VTE diagnosis. HA-VTE patients often had high risk scores as early as seven or even 14 days prior to the event, and 20 (51%) of the patients who developed HA-VTE were high risk during the entire admission. Of the HA-VTE patients, 19 (48.7%) were receiving thromboprophylaxis on the day prior to the event. 4 (21.1%) received pharmaceutical type only, 12 (63.2%) received mechanical type only, and 3 (15.8%) received both types. Conclusion: Institutional CCGs can be used to determine HA-VTE risk stratification in hospitalized children, thereby informing decisions regarding initiation of thromboprophylaxis as a preventative strategy in the absence of contraindications. Comparison to a group of age group- and risk level-matched control patients who did not develop HA-VTE is underway and will give appropriate context to the high risk designation as it pertains to HA-VTE incidence and the impact of thromboprophylaxis strategies. Table 1. Risk scores prior to HA-VTE diagnosis: Risk scores at various time points during hospitalization Risk Level Risk Score on Admission Risk Score 14 Days Prior Risk Score 7 Days Prior Risk Score 1 Day Prior Risk Score Day of VTE Low 13 (33.3%) 0 (0%) 2 (10.5%) 4 (10.3%) 4 (10.3%) Moderate 4 (10.3%) 1 (9.1%) 1 (5.3%) 2 (5.1%) 2 (5.1%) High 22 (56.4%) 10 (90.9%) 16 (84.2%) 33 (84.6%) 33 (84.6%) Total 39 11 19 39 39 Figure 1. Patient-level risk score tracking: Each colored line represents a unique HA-VTE patient's risk score trajectory during hospitalization. Risk scores upon admission correspond to days represented by negative numbers denoting various days prior to event (Day 0), and all patients have evaluations from 14, 7, and 1 day prior to the event, if applicable. Figure 1. Patient-level risk score tracking: Each colored line represents a unique HA-VTE patient's risk score trajectory during hospitalization. Risk scores upon admission correspond to days represented by negative numbers denoting various days prior to event (Day 0), and all patients have evaluations from 14, 7, and 1 day prior to the event, if applicable. Disclosures Off Label Use: We may discuss use of heparin (unfractionated or low molecular forms) for VTE thromboprophylaxis in children.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Hui Xiong ◽  
Hui Gao ◽  
Jinding Hu ◽  
Yun Dai ◽  
Hanbo Wang ◽  
...  

Compelling evidence indicates that immune function is correlated with the prognosis of bladder cancer (BC). Here, we aimed to develop a clinically translatable immune-related gene pairs (IRGPs) prognostic signature to estimate the overall survival (OS) of bladder cancer. From the 251 prognostic-related IRGPs, 37 prognostic-related IRGPs were identified using LASSO regression. We identified IRGPs with the potential to be prognostic markers. The established risk scores divided BC patients into high and low risk score groups, and the survival analysis showed that risk score was related to OS in the TCGA-training set ( p < 0.001 ; HR = 7.5 [5.3, 10]). ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC for the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year follow-up was 0.820, 0.883, and 0.879, respectively. The model was verified in the TCGA-testing set and external dataset GSE13507. Multivariate analysis showed that risk score was an independent prognostic predictor in patients with BC. In addition, significant differences were found in gene mutations, copy number variations, and gene expression levels in patients with BC between the high and low risk score groups. Gene set enrichment analysis showed that, in the high-risk score group, multiple immune-related pathways were inhibited, and multiple mesenchymal phenotype-related pathways were activated. Immune infiltration analysis revealed that immune cells associated with poor prognosis of BC were upregulated in the high-risk score group, whereas immune cells associated with a better prognosis of BC were downregulated in the high-risk score group. Other immunoregulatory genes were also differentially expressed between high and low risk score groups. A 37 IRGPs-based risk score signature is presented in this study. This signature can efficiently classify BC patients into high and low risk score groups. This signature can be exploited to select high-risk BC patients for more targeted treatment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-31
Author(s):  
Beemba Shakya ◽  
Gehanath Baral

Aims: The objective of this study was to determine the clinical presentation of GTD and response of GTN to single and multiple agent chemotherapy on the basis of WHO Prognostic risk scoring system.Methods: This was a cross-sectional retrospective study undertaken at Paropakar Maternity and Women’s Hospital. The medical records of 102 GTD cases were reviewed from January 25, 2015 to January 24, 2016. Data pertaining patient characteristics, histopathology types of GTD, management, prognostic risk scores, chemotherapy, follow up and remissions were retrieved and were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0.Results: Among 102 GTD cases, the most common presentation was vaginal bleeding 69(67.6%) followed by ultrasound diagnosed cases 30(29.4%). Primary management of all cases were suction evacuation, 68 completed and 12 are under follow-up. GTN was diagnosed in 14/90 (15.5%) of complete mole and 5/90 (5.5%) of partial mole. Twenty-two cases received chemotherapy for persistent gestational trophoblastic tumour(19) and invasive mole(3). Twenty cases were low risk score group and two cases under high risk group. Out of 20 low risk cases that received MTX-FA, 13/20 (65%) achieved remission. Due to low response of MTX-FA, five of them were converted to Actinomycin-D and achieved remission (100%). Two high risk cases received EMA-CO regimen and achieved 100% remission. Two low risk GTN, complete and invasive mole (underwent hysterectomy) are undergoing MTX-FA chemotherapy.Conclusions: The most common presentation of GTD was vaginal bleeding. Low risk GTN achieved 65% remission with Methotrexate-Folinic acid, ultimately achieved 100% remission with Actinomycin-D. High risk GTN achieved 100% remission with EMA-CO regimen.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 18-19
Author(s):  
Ferdows Atiq ◽  
Esmee Wuijster ◽  
Moniek P.M. de Maat ◽  
Marieke J.H.A. Kruip ◽  
Marjon H. Cnossen ◽  
...  

Introduction Although large studies have recently provided valuable insights on the diagnosis, bleeding phenotype, and treatment outcomes of VWD patients, these aspects remain poorly understood in individuals with low VWF. Firstly, there is no clear evidence which cut-off value should be used to diagnose low VWF. Although 0.50 IU/mL is the most recommended cut-off value, some centers use the lower limit of normal (0.60 IU/mL). Secondly, the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and traumatic- or spontaneous bleeding after diagnosis of low VWF are still unknown. Lastly, it is hard to predict which individuals with low VWF have an increased bleeding risk. Therefore, we investigated the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL, and the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, PPH and traumatic- and spontaneous bleeding after their initial diagnosis of "low VWF". Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study from January 2007 to November 2019 at the Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam. All patients evaluated for the presence of a bleeding disorder with VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) and/or VWF activity (VWF:Act) and/or VWF collagen binding (VWF:CB) levels between 0.31-0.60 IU/mL, were included. Patients with VWF:Ag and/or VWF:Act and/or VWF:CB ≤0.30 IU/mL, acquired VWD and those with a concomitant bleeding disorder were excluded. For each individual we collected data from electronic patient files on baseline characteristics, reason for referral, family history of bleeding disorders, ISTH-BAT and laboratory measurements at diagnosis. Retrospective follow-up started from initial date of low VWF diagnosis through November 2019, during which we collected data on surgical procedures, pregnancies, and incidence of spontaneous- and traumatic bleeding. Results We included 439 patients; 269 patients with historically lowest VWF levels 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 170 patients 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Mean age at diagnosis was 28.8 ±17.7 years. Most patients were female (74.3%) and had blood group O (76.4%, Table 1). The bleeding score (BS) was similar in patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL (3.7 ±3.0) and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (4.0 ±2.9, p=0.209, Table 1). During the mean follow-up period of 6.3 ±3.7 years, 259 surgical procedures were performed in 146 patients, 81 deliveries in 56 women, and 109 spontaneous- or traumatic bleedings in 71 patients. The incidence of post-surgical bleeding was 7 (2.7%) during follow-up, whereas 8 deliveries (10%) were complicated by PPH. Overall, 65 out of 439 patients (14.8%) had a bleeding episode requiring treatment during follow-up, resulting in an incidence of bleeding requiring treatment of 0.5 ±1.9 per patient per decade. No difference was found in the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment between patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (Figure 2A, p=0.154). We found that referral for a personal bleeding diathesis, a younger age at diagnosis and an abnormal BS at diagnosis were strong and independent risk factors for bleeding requiring treatment during follow-up, respectively HR=2.32 (95%CI: 1.16-4.63), HR=1.18 (95%CI: 1.01-1.38) and HR=1.77 (95%CI: 1.04-3.01). These risk factors were combined to develop a risk score to identify low VWF patients with an increased risk for bleeding requiring treatment (Figure 2B). The risk score performed excellent to differentiate in bleeding requiring treatment between low risk, intermediate risk and high risk patients (p&lt;0.001, Figure 2C). The number of patients with bleeding requiring treatment was 8/126 (6.3%) in patients with low risk, 18/143 (12.6%) in intermediate risk and 39/170 (22.9%) in high risk patients (p&lt;0.001). Likewise, the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment per patient per decade was 0.22 ±1.08 in low risk, 0.28 ±1.25 in intermediate risk and 0.87 ±2.61 in high risk patients (p=0.004, Figure 2D). Conclusion To conclude, there is no difference in the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Therefore, the cut-off value to diagnose low VWF should be set at 0.60 IU/mL. Furthermore, the risk score developed in the current study may assist to identify low VWF patients with low, intermediate and high risk for future bleeding. Disclosures Atiq: SOBI: Other: travel grant; CSL Behring: Research Funding. Kruip:Boehringer Ingelheim: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; SOBI: Research Funding; Bayer: Speakers Bureau. Cnossen:Takeda: Research Funding; Shire: Research Funding; Baxter: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Sobi: Research Funding; CSL behring: Research Funding; Nordic Pharma: Research Funding; Novo Nordisk: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding. Leebeek:CSL Behring: Research Funding; Shire/Takeda: Research Funding; Uniqure: Consultancy; Shire/Takeda: Consultancy; Novo Nordisk: Consultancy; SOBI: Other: Travel grant; Roche: Other: DSMB member for a study.


Author(s):  
Tze‐Fan Chao ◽  
Chern‐En Chiang ◽  
Tzeng‐Ji Chen ◽  
Jo‐Nan Liao ◽  
Ta‐Chuan Tuan ◽  
...  

Background Although several risk schemes have been proposed to predict new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical prediction models specific for Asian patients were limited. In the present study, we aimed to develop a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score) for AF prediction using the whole Taiwan population database with a long‐term follow‐up. Methods and Results Among 7 220 654 individuals aged ≥40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia identified from the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database, 438 930 incident AFs occurred after a 16‐year follow‐up. Clinical risk factors of AF were identified using Cox regression analysis and then combined into a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score). The Taiwan AF score included age, male sex, and important comorbidities (hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end‐stage renal disease, and alcoholism) and ranged from −2 to 15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Taiwan AF scores in the predictions of AF are 0.857 for the 1‐year follow‐up, 0.825 for the 5‐year follow‐up, 0.797 for the 10‐year follow‐up, and 0.756 for the 16‐year follow‐up. The annual risks of incident AF were 0.21%/year, 1.31%/year, and 3.37%/year for the low‐risk (score −2 to 3), intermediate‐risk (score 4 to 9), and high‐risk (score ≥10) groups, respectively. Compared with low‐risk patients, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.78 (95% CI, 3.76–7.75) for the intermediate‐risk group and 8.94 (95% CI, 6.47–10.80) for the high‐risk group. Conclusions We developed a clinical AF prediction model, the Taiwan AF score, among a large‐scale Asian cohort. The new score could help physicians to identify Asian patients at high risk of AF in whom more aggressive and frequent detections and screenings may be considered.


2021 ◽  
pp. 175045892110310
Author(s):  
Jessica Evans ◽  
James Chan ◽  
Delvina H Saraqini ◽  
Ranjeeta Mallick

The potential benefit of referring select high-risk surgical patients who are seen during a preoperative medical consultation for postoperative inpatient medical follow-up is uncertain. Over a seven-year period, our internal medicine perioperative clinic referred 5% of 4642 preoperative consults for postoperative follow-up. A retrospective chart review found that although reasons for referral were heterogeneous, those assessed by the medical consult team postoperatively were more comorbid, had more adverse medical complications and had longer hospital admissions compared to those not referred. Physicians were best able to predict adverse cardiac and diabetes-related complications. Half of the patients who were referred for postoperative assessment were lost to follow-up, and there was a trend towards increased hospital readmissions in this group. Further research is required to identify the subset of patients who might benefit from postoperative inpatient medical assessment.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 1323-1323
Author(s):  
Anna Hecht ◽  
Florian Nolte ◽  
Daniel Nowak ◽  
Verena Nowak ◽  
Benjamin Hanfstein ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction With current therapy regimens over 75% of patients with de novo acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) can be cured. Approaches to further improve patient outcome by stratifying patients at the time of initial diagnosis according to their individual risk and to adjust therapy accordingly have been based on clinical features only. Molecular markers have not been established for risk stratification as yet. Recently, we have shown that high expression levels of the genes brain and acute leukemia, cytoplasmic (BAALC) and ets related gene (ERG) are associated with inferior outcome in APL patients. In addition, data indicate that aberrant expression of the gene Wilms’ tumor 1 (WT1) is a negative prognostic factor with regard to overall survival (OS) after complete remission (CR) and relapse free survival (RFS) in APL. In this study we evaluated the prognostic relevance of a combined score integrating the expression levels of the above mentioned genes to further improve risk stratification in APL patients. Methods Expression levels of BAALC, ERG and WT1 of 62 patients with newly diagnosed APL were retrospectively analyzed in bone marrow mononuclear cells using multiplex reverse transcriptase quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). Median age of patients was 47 years (range: 19 to 82y). All patients gave informed consent. Patients were diagnosed and treated in the German AML Cooperative Group (AMLCG) study with a treatment of simultaneous ATRA and double induction chemotherapy including high-dose ara-C, consolidation and maintenance chemotherapy. The following gene expression levels were identified as negative risk factors in preceding studies: BAALC expression ≥25th percentile (BAALChigh), ERG expression >75th percentile (ERGhigh) and WT1 expression ≤25th percentile or ≥75th percentile (WT1low/high). A risk score was developed as follows: for the presence of one of the mentioned risk factors one scoring point was assigned to a respective patient, i.e. a maximum of 3 points (one point for BAALChigh, ERGhigh and WT1low/high, respectively) and a minimum of 0 points (i.e. presenting with none of the aforementioned risk factors) could be allocated to one patient. Accordingly, patients were divided into four risk groups: 7 patients scored 0 points (= low risk), 27 patients scored 1 point (= intermediate 1 risk), 19 patients scored 2 points (= intermediate 2 risk) and 9 patients scored 3 points (= high risk). Subsequently, OS, RFS and relapse free interval (RFI) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test was used to compare differences between the four risk groups (p<0.05). Results The integrative risk score divided patients into four groups with significantly different outcome. The low risk group showed a RFS of 100% at 10 years of follow-up compared to the intermediate 1 risk group with 81%, the intermediate 2 risk group with 58% and the high risk group with a RFS of 42% only (median survival: 4.6y) (p=0.02). In accordance, the RFI differed significantly between the four groups: low risk 100%, intermediate 1 risk 100%, intermediate 2 risk 89% and high risk 71% (p=0.049). There was no statistically significant difference between the 4 groups with regard to OS in the entire patient cohort. However, there was a clear trend towards a difference in OS in patients who achieved a CR after induction therapy: low risk 100%, intermediate 1 risk 81%, intermediate 2 risk 68% and high risk 53% survival at 10 years of follow-up (p=0.09). Conclusion Integration of expression levels of the genes BAALC, ERG and WT1 into a scoring system identifies 4 risk groups with significantly different outcome with regard to RFS and RFI. It might be a promising approach to guide therapeutic decisions in patients with APL. However, multivariate analyses and validation of these data in an independent patient cohort is warranted. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


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