scholarly journals Variations of Twentieth-Century Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Indicators in the Northeast United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 5401-5417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Griffiths ◽  
Raymond S. Bradley

Abstract An examination of five temperature and five precipitation extreme indicators reveals an increase in both temperature and precipitation extremes over the 1926–2000 period in the northeast United States, with most of this increase occurring over the past four decades. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of winter frost days (FD) and warm nights (TN90) and also winter consecutive dry days (CDD) and very wet days (R95T) over the 1950–2000 period reveals that some of the variability associated with changes in these extremes may be explained by variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. The most prominent feature of these results was the high correlation between the leading EOF of frost days and warm nights and the AO. Winter composites of temperature and precipitation extreme indicators were examined for different phases of the AO and ENSO during the 1926–2000 period. Overall, the AO is a better predictor of winter warm nights, while the ENSO is a better predictor of consecutive dry days in the northeast United States.

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 2396-2409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong ◽  
Xindi Bian ◽  
Warren E. Heilman ◽  
Joseph J. Charney

AbstractThe Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The results show that the first three HI empirical orthogonal function modes are related respectively to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the interdecadal sea surface temperature variation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. During the negative ENSO phase, an anomalous ridge (trough) is evident over the western (eastern) United States, with warm/dry weather and more days with high HI values in the western and southeastern United States. During the negative phase of the AO, an anomalous trough is found over the western United States, with wet/cool weather and fewer days with high HI, while an anomalous ridge occurs over the southern United States–northern Mexico, with an increase in the number of days with high HI. After the early 1990s, the subtropical high over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Bermuda high were strengthened by a wave train that was excited over the tropical western Pacific Ocean and resulted in warm/dry conditions over the southwestern United States and western Mexico and wet weather in the southeastern United States. The above conditions are reversed during the positive phase of ENSO and AO and before the early 1990s.


2021 ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
V. N. Kryjov ◽  

The 2019/2020 wintertime (December–March) anomalies of sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation are analyzed. The contribution of the 40-year linear trend in these parameters associated with global climate change and of the interannual variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is assessed. In the 2019/2020 winter, extreme zonal circulation was observed. The mean wintertime AO index was 2.20, which ranked two for the whole observation period (started in the early 20th century) and was outperformed only by the wintertime index of 1988/1989. It is shown that the main contribution to the 2019/2020 wintertime anomalies was provided by the AO. A noticeable contribution of the trend was observed only in the Arctic. Extreme anomalies over Northern Eurasia were mainly associated with the AO rather than the trend. However, the AO-related anomalies, particularly air temperature anomalies, were developing against the background of the trend-induced increased mean level.


1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (5s) ◽  
pp. S1-S50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Halpert ◽  
Gerald D. Bell

The climate of 1996 can be characterized by several phenomena that reflect substantial deviations from the mean state of the atmosphere persisting from months to seasons. First, mature cold-episode conditions persisted across the tropical Pacific from November 1995 through May 1996 and contributed to large-scale anomalies of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and precipitation across the Tropics, the North Pacific and North America. These anomalies were in many respects opposite to those that had prevailed during the past several years in association with a prolonged period of tropical Pacific warm-episode conditions (ENSO). Second, strong tropical intraseasonal (Madden–Julian oscillations) activity was observed during most of the year. The impact of these oscillations on extratropical circulation variability was most evident late in the year in association with strong variations in the eastward extent of the East Asian jet and in the attendant downstream circulation, temperature, and precipitation patterns over the eastern North Pacific and central North America. Third, a return to the strong negative phase of the atmospheric North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during November 1995–February 1996, following a nearly continuous 15-yr period of positive-phase NAO conditions, played a critical role in affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across the North Atlantic, Eurasia, and northern Africa. The NAO also contributed to a significant decrease in wintertime temperatures across large portions of Siberia and northern Russia from those that had prevailed during much of the 1980s and early 1990s. Other regional aspects of the short-term climate during 1996 included severe drought across the southwestern United States and southern plains states during October 1995–May 1996, flooding in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States during the 1995/96 and 1996/97 winters, a cold and extremely snowy 1995/96 winter in the eastern United States, a second consecutive year of above-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity, near-normal rains in the African Sahel, above-normal rainfall across southeastern Africa during October 1995–April 1996, above-normal precipitation for most of the year across eastern and southeastern Australia following severe drought in these areas during 1995, and generally nearnormal monsoonal rains in India with significantly below-normal rainfall in Bangladesh and western Burma. The global annual mean surface temperature for land and marine areas during 1996 averaged 0.21°C above the 1961–90 base period means. This is a decrease of 0.19°C from the record warm year of 1995 but was still among the 10 highest values observed since 1860. The global land-only temperature for 1996 was 0.06°C above normal and was the lowest anomaly observed since 1985 (−0.11°C). Much of this relative decrease in global temperatures occurred in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, where land-only temperatures dropped from 0.42°C above normal in 1995 to 0.04°C below normal in 1996. The year also witnessed a continuation of near-record low ozone amounts in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, along with an abnormally prolonged appearance of the “ozone hole” into early December. The areal extent of the ozone hole in November and early December exceeded that previously observed for any such period on record. However, its areal extent at peak amplitude during late September–early October was near that observed during the past several years.


Rangifer ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul H. Whitfield ◽  
Don Russell

The Arctic is one region where it is expected that the impacts of a globally changing climate will be readily observed. We present results that indicate that climate derivatives of potential significance to caribou changed during the past 50 years. Many temperature derivatives reflect the increasing overall temperature in the Arctic such as decreases in the number of days with low temperatures, increases in the number of days with thaw, and days with extremely warm temperatures. Other derivatives reflect changes in the precipitation regime such as days with heavy precipitation and number of days when rain fell on snow. Our results indicate that specific caribou herds from across the Arctic were subjected to different variations of these derivatives in different seasons in the recent past. Examination of temperature and precipitation at finer time-steps than annual or monthly means, shows that climatic variations in the region are neither consistent through the seasons nor across space. Decadal changes in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are shown for selected herds. A process for assessing caribou-focused climate derivatives is proposed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Irannezhad

This study analyses the first and last days of snowmelt events and the number of days (duration) between those throughout a water year (September-August). The snowmelt duration (SD) as well as its first (SFD) and last (SLD) days were estimated using daily precipitation and temperature measurements at the Kaisaniemi meteorological station in southern Finland during 1909-2008 as input datasets to a temperature-index snowmelt model. As snowmelt is a sensitive hydrological variable to temperature, this study also evaluated historical variations and trends in November-May (SDt), November-January (SFDt), and March-May (SLDt) temperatures corresponding to SD, SFD, and SLD at Kaisaniemi. The trends in all these parameters as well as their correlations with the well-known climate teleconnections over Finland were investigated. Long-term average values indicated the longest SD was about 131 days between 15 December and 25 April at Kaisaniemi. The SD significantly (p<0.05) shortened by 0.37 (days/year) at Kaisaniemi during 1909-2008 mainly due to the earlier (0.32 days/year) SLD. Such trends in SD and SLD were principally associated with century-long significant warming trends (0.02 °C/year) in both SDt and SLDt. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was the most influential climate teleconnection for historical variations in SD, SLD, SDt, SFDt, and SLDt at Kaisaniemi.


1984 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred S. McLaren

This paper examines the evolution of the arctic submarine and the ever-increasing scientific and commercial potential which have accompanied this evolution over the past 340 years. It is a sporadic history of arctic submarine ideas, concepts and actual experiences with vessels at sea. It happens to be a history that is largely American, with important additions as a result of the experiences of the Germans, Soviets and the British, particularly during World War II. Finally, it is a history in which five early visionaries in particular stand out: Bishop John Wilkins of England; Jules Verne of France; Professor Anschutz-Kampfe of Germany; the submarine designer Simon Lake, of the United States — whose influence extended over four decades until well into the twentieth century; and Sir Hubert Wilkins of Australia.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 2119-2122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew A. H. Wittman ◽  
Andrew J. Charlton ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani

Abstract Using a simple stochastic model, the authors illustrate that the occurrence of a meridional dipole in the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of a time-dependent zonal jet is a simple consequence of the north–south excursion of the jet center, and this geometrical fact can be understood without appealing to fluid dynamical principles. From this it follows that one ought not, perhaps, be surprised at the fact that such dipoles, commonly referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), have robustly been identified in many observational studies and appear to be ubiquitous in atmospheric models across a wide range of complexity.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 2829-2847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Loikith ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner ◽  
Alex Sweeney

The self-organizing maps (SOMs) approach is demonstrated as a way to identify a range of archetypal large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) over the northwestern United States and connect these patterns with local-scale temperature and precipitation extremes. SOMs are used to construct a set of 12 characteristic LSMPs (nodes) based on daily reanalysis circulation fields spanning the range of observed synoptic-scale variability for the summer and winter seasons for the period 1979–2013. Composites of surface variables are constructed for subsets of days assigned to each node to explore relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the node patterns. The SOMs approach also captures interannual variability in daily weather regime frequency related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Temperature and precipitation extremes in high-resolution gridded observations and in situ station data show robust relationships with particular nodes in many cases, supporting the approach as a way to identify LSMPs associated with local extremes. Assigning days from the extreme warm summer of 2015 and wet winter of 2016 to nodes illustrates how SOMs may be used to assess future changes in extremes. These results point to the applicability of SOMs to climate model evaluation and assessment of future projections of local-scale extremes without requiring simulations to reliably resolve extremes at high spatial scales.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Träger-Chatterjee ◽  
Richard W. Müller ◽  
Jörg Bendix

The prediction of summers with notable droughts and heatwaves on the seasonal scale is challenging, especially in extratropical regions, since their development is not yet fully understood. Thus, monitoring and analysis of such summers are important tasks to close this knowledge gap. In a previous paper, the authors presented hints that extreme summers are connected with specific conditions during the winter-spring transition season. Here, these findings are further discussed and analysed in the context of the Earth’s circulation systems. No evidence for a connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Arctic Oscillation during the winter-spring transition and extremely hot and dry summers is found. However, inspection of the geopotential at 850 hPa shows that a Greenland-North Sea-Dipole is connected with extreme summers in Central Europe. This motivated the introduction of the novel Greenland-North Sea-Dipole-Index, GNDI. However, using this index as predictor would lead to one false alarm and one missed event in the time series analysed (1958–2011). Hints are found that the disturbance of the “dipole-summer” connection is due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To consider the ENSO effect, the novel Central European Drought Index (CEDI) has been developed, which is composed of the GNDI and the Bivariate ENSO Time Series Index. The CEDI enables a correct indication of all extremely hot and dry summers between 1958 and 2011 without any false alarm.


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