Genesis of Pre–Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1711-1729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
T. J. Dunkerton
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Critical Layer ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Vorticity Balance

Abstract The formation of pre–Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the “wave pouch” from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors’ earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

scholarly journals Coarse, intermediate and high resolution numerical simulations of the transition of a tropical wave critical layer to a tropical storm

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 10803-10827 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
Z. Wang ◽  
T. J. Dunkerton
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Critical Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Cyclonic Vorticity ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Tropical Depressions

Abstract. Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to an upcoming field experiment for the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2010 that is to be conducted collaboratively between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration (NASA).

scholarly journals Intermediate and high resolution numerical simulations of the transition of a tropical wave critical layer to a tropical storm

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 26143-26197 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
Z. Wang ◽  
T. J. Dunkerton
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Critical Layer ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Cyclonic Vorticity ◽  
Easterly Wave

Abstract. Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis that typifies the trade wind belt. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the problem of the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a vorticity dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation within the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to an upcoming field experiment for the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2010 that is to be conducted collaboratively between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration (NASA).

scholarly journals Thermodynamic Environments of Deep Convection in Atlantic Tropical Disturbances

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 1912-1928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
David A. Ahijevych
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
System Development ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Thermodynamic Characteristics ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Sea Temperature

Abstract Conditional composites of dropsondes deployed into eight tropical Atlantic weather systems during 2010 are analyzed. The samples are conditioned based on cloud-top temperature within 10 km of the dropsonde, the radius from the cyclonic circulation center of the disturbance, and the stage of system development toward tropical cyclogenesis. Statistical tests are performed to identify significant differences between composite profiles. Cold-cloud-region-composite profiles of virtual temperature deviations from a large-scale instantaneous average indicate enhanced static stability prior to genesis within 200 km of the center of circulation, with negative anomalies below 700 hPa and larger warm anomalies above 600 hPa. Moist static energy is enhanced in the middle troposphere in this composite mainly because of an increase in water vapor content. Prior to genesis the buoyancy of lifted parcels within 200 km of the circulation center is sharply reduced compared to the buoyancy of parcels farther from the center. These thermodynamic characteristics support the conceptual model of an altered mass flux profile prior to genesis that strongly favors convergence in the lower troposphere and rapid increase of circulation near the surface. It is also noted that the air–sea temperature difference is greatest in the inner core of the pregenesis composite, which suggests a means to preferentially initiate new convection in the inner core where the rotation is greatest.

Response of Humidity and Clouds to Tropical Deep Convection

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 2389-2404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Zelinka ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Temporal Separation ◽  
Convective Event ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Currently available satellite data can be used to track the response of clouds and humidity to intense precipitation events. A compositing technique centered in space and time on locations experiencing high rain rates is used to detail the characteristic evolution of several quantities measured from a suite of satellite instruments. Intense precipitation events in the convective tropics are preceded by an increase in low-level humidity. Optically thick cold clouds accompany the precipitation burst, which is followed by the development of spreading upper-level anvil clouds and an increase in upper-tropospheric humidity over a broader region than that occupied by the precipitation anomalies. The temporal separation between the convective event and the development of anvil clouds is about 3 h. The humidity increase at upper levels and the associated decrease in clear-sky longwave emission persist for many hours after the convective event. Large-scale vertical motions from reanalysis show a coherent evolution associated with precipitation events identified in an independent dataset: precipitation events begin with stronger upward motion anomalies in the lower troposphere, which then evolve toward stronger upward motion anomalies in the upper troposphere, in conjunction with the development of anvil clouds. Greater upper-tropospheric moistening and cloudiness are associated with larger-scale and better-organized convective systems, but even weaker, more isolated systems produce sustained upper-level humidity and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation anomalies.

scholarly journals Meteorological Analysis of Floods in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. O. Ansah ◽  
M. A. Ahiataku ◽  
C. K. Yorke ◽  
F. Otu-Larbi ◽  
Bashiru Yahaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Forest Region ◽  
National Disaster

The first episodes of floods caused by heavy rainfall during the major rainy season in 2018 occurred in Accra (5.6°N and 0.17°W), a coastal town, and Kumasi (6.72°N and 1.6°W) in the forest region on the 18th and 28th of June, respectively. We applied the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate and examine the meteorological dynamics, which resulted in the extreme rainfall and floods that caused 14 deaths, 34076 people being displaced with damaged properties, and economic loss estimated at $168,289 for the two cities according to the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO). The slow-moving thunderstorms lasted for about 8 hours due to the weak African Easterly Wave (AEW) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Results from the analysis showed that surface pressures were low with significant amount of moisture influx aiding the thunderstorms intensification, which produced 90.1 mm and 114.6 mm of rainfall over Accra and Kumasi, respectively. We compared the rainfall amount from this event to the historical rainfall data to investigate possible changes in rainfall intensities over time. A time series of annual daily maximum rainfall (ADMR) showed an increasing trend with a slope of 0.45 over Accra and a decreasing trend and a slope of –0.07 over Kumasi. The 95th percentile frequencies of extreme rainfall with thresholds of 45.10 mm and 42.16 mm were analyzed for Accra and Kumasi, respectively, based on the normal distribution of rainfall. Accra showed fewer days with more heavy rainfall, while Kumasi showed more days with less heavy rainfalls.

scholarly journals Air mass origins influencing TTL chemical composition over West Africa during 2006 summer monsoon

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 10753-10770 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Law ◽  
F. Fierli ◽  
F. Cairo ◽  
H. Schlager ◽  
S. Borrmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Back Trajectories ◽  
Air Masses

Abstract. Trace gas and aerosol data collected in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) between 12–18.5 km by the M55 Geophysica aircraft as part of the SCOUT-AMMA campaign over West Africa during the summer monsoon in August 2006 have been analysed in terms of their air mass origins. Analysis of domain filling back trajectories arriving over West Africa, and in the specific region of the flights, showed that the M55 flights were generally representative of air masses arriving over West Africa during the first 2 weeks of August, 2006. Air originating from the mid-latitude lower stratosphere was under-sampled (in the mid-upper TTL) whilst air masses uplifted from central Africa (into the lower TTL) were over-sampled in the latter part of the campaign. Signatures of recent (previous 10 days) origins were superimposed on the large-scale westward flow over West Africa. In the lower TTL, air masses were impacted by recent local deep convection over Africa at the level of main convective outflow (350 K, 200 hPa) and on certain days up to 370 K (100 hPa). Estimates of the fraction of air masses influenced by local convection vary from 10 to 50% depending on the method applied and from day to day during the campaign. The analysis shows that flights on 7, 8 and 11 August were more influenced by local convection than on 4 and 13 August allowing separation of trace gas and aerosol measurements into "convective" and "non-convective" flights. Strong signatures, particularly in species with short lifetimes (relative to CO2) like CO, NO and fine-mode aerosols were seen during flights most influenced by convection up to 350–365 K. Observed profiles were also constantly perturbed by uplift (as high as 39%) of air masses from the mid to lower troposphere over Asia, India, and oceanic regions resulting in import of clean oceanic (e.g. O3-poor) or polluted air masses from Asia (high O3, CO, CO2) into West Africa. Thus, recent uplift of CO2 over Asia may contribute to the observed positive CO2 gradients in the TTL over West Africa. This suggests a more significant fraction of younger air masses in the TTL and needs to taken into consideration in derivations of mean age of air. Transport of air masses from the mid-latitude lower stratosphere had an impact from the mid-TTL upwards (20–40% above 370 K) during the campaign period importing air masses with high O3 and NOy. Ozone profiles show a less pronounced lower TTL minimum than observed previously by regular ozonesondes at other tropical locations. Concentrations are less than 100 ppbv in the lower TTL and vertical gradients less steep than in the upper TTL. The air mass origin analysis and simulations of in-situ net photochemical O3 production, initialised with observations, suggest that the lower TTL is significantly impacted by uplift of O3 precursors (over Africa and Asia) leading to positive production rates (up to 2 ppbv per day) in the lower and mid TTL even at moderate NOx levels. Photochemical O3 production increases with higher NOx and H2O in air masses with O3 less than 150 ppbv.

scholarly journals Effects of Cloud Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes and Intraseasonal Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4731-4751 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Lau ◽  
H. T. Wu ◽  
Y. C. Sud ◽  
G. K. Walker
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Warm Rain

Abstract The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud microphysics is investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). Results show that a faster autoconversion rate leads to (a) enhanced deep convection in the climatological convective zones anchored to tropical land regions; (b) more warm rain, but less cloud over oceanic regions; and (c) an increased convective-to-stratiform rain ratio over the entire Tropics. Fewer clouds enhance longwave cooling and reduce shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces more condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical differential heating destabilizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain and an enhanced atmospheric water cycle over the Tropics. The feedback is maintained via secondary circulations between convective tower and anvil regions (cold rain), and adjacent middle-to-low cloud (warm rain) regions. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the freezing–melting (0°C) level, with rising motion (relative to the vertical mean) in the warm rain region connected to sinking motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the 0°C level, with induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. It is that warm rain plays an important role in regulating the time scales of convective cycles, and in altering the tropical large-scale circulation through radiative–dynamic interactions. Reduced cloud–radiation feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Conversely, a slower autoconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJOs with more realistic westward-propagating transients embedded in eastward-propagating supercloud clusters. The implications of the present results on climate change and water cycle dynamics research are discussed.

scholarly journals A modified lightning potential index for numerical models with parameterized deep convection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Forecasting System

<p>A modified lightning potential index (MLPI) for numerical models with parameterized deep convection is presented. It is based on the LPI formula of Lynn and Yair (2010). Following the idea of Lopez (2016), the quantities (e.g. vertical velocity) needed in the LPI formula are derived from the updraft of the Bechtold-Tiedtke parameterization scheme (Bechtold et al., 2014). The formula is further improved by taking into account the vertical equivalent potential temperature gradient.</p><p>The LPI and MLPI are tested in ICON with 20km resolution (ICON-20) over central Europe. A key component in the LPI is the vertical velocity. To assess its quality, the vertical velocity of the updraft in the convection scheme in ICON-20 is compared to updrafts in the convection-resolving COSMO model with 2.2 km resolution (COSMO-D2). It is shown that in ICON-20 the extension of the vertical velocity is generally broader with the maximum located in higher altitudes. In the charge separation area where the vertical velocity is relevant, the ICON-20 vertical velocity is less than in COSMO-D2. Consequently, the LPI values in ICON-20 are lower by a factor of 2 compared to COSMO-D2.</p><p>The MLPI is verified against LINET lightning data (Betz et al. 2009) over central Europe for summer 2020 and compared to LPI in COSMO-D2. The MLPI is also compared to the LPI and the lightning flash density (LFD,  Lopez, 2016), all computed in ICON-20. For the test period the MLPI outperforms the LPI and LFD. However, the quality of the LPI in COSMO-D2 cannot quite be reached.</p><p> </p><p>Bechtold et al. 2014: Representing Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Convection in Large-Scale Models. J. Atmos. Sci. 71, 734-753.</p><p>Betz et al., 2009:  LINET - An international lightning detection network in Europe. Atmos.  Res. 91 564–573.</p><p>Lopez, 2016: A Lightning Parameterization for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 3057-2075.</p><p>Lynn and Yair, 2010: Prediction of lightning flash density with the WRF model  Adv. Geosci., 23, 11–16.</p>

scholarly journals Air mass origins influencing TTL chemical composition over West Africa during 2006 summer monsoon

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 15485-15536 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Law ◽  
F. Fierli ◽  
F. Cairo ◽  
H. Schlager ◽  
S. Borrmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Back Trajectories ◽  
Air Masses

Abstract. Trace gas and aerosol data collected in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) between 12–18.5 km by the M55 Geophysica aircraft as part of the SCOUT-AMMA campaign over West Africa during the summer monsoon in August 2006 have been analysed in terms of their air mass origins. Analysis of domain filling back trajectories arriving over West Africa, and in the specific region of the flights, showed that the M55 flights were generally representative of air masses arriving over West Africa during the first 2 weeks of August, 2006. Air originating from the mid-latitude lower stratosphere was under-sampled (in the mid-upper TTL) whilst air masses uplifted from central Africa (into the lower TTL) were over-sampled in the latter part of the campaign. Signatures of recent (previous 10 days) origins were superimposed on the large-scale westerly flow over West Africa. In the lower TTL, air masses were impacted by recent local deep convection over Africa at the level of main convective outflow (350 K, 200 hPa) and on certain days up to 370 K (100 hPa). Estimates of the fraction of air masses influenced by local convection vary from 10 to 50% depending on the method applied and from day to day during the campaign. The analysis shows that flights on 7, 8 and 11 August were more influenced by local convection than on 4 and 13 August allowing separation of trace gas and aerosol measurements into ''convective'' and ''non-convective'' flights. Strong signatures, particularly in short-lived species like CO, NO and fine-mode aerosols were seen during flights most influenced by convection up to 350–365 K. Observed profiles were also constantly perturbed by uplift (as high as 39%) of air masses from the mid to lower troposphere over Asia, India, and oceanic regions resulting in import of clean oceanic (e.g., O3-poor) or polluted air masses from Asia (high O3, CO, CO2) into West Africa. Thus, recent uplift of CO2 over Asia may contribute to the observed positive CO2 gradients in the TTL over West Africa. This suggests a more significant fraction of younger air masses in the TTL making it difficult to derive mean age of air from average gradients. Transport of air masses from the mid-latitude lower stratosphere had an impact from the mid-TTL upwards (20–40% above 370 K) during the campaign period importing air masses with high O3 and NOy. Ozone profiles show a less pronounced lower TTL minimum than observed previously by regular ozonesondes at other tropical locations. Concentrations are less than 100 ppbv in the lower TTL and vertical gradients less steep than in the upper TTL. The air mass origin analysis and simulations of in-situ net photochemical O3 production, initialised with observations, suggest that the lower TTL is significantly impacted by uplift of O3 precursors (over Africa and Asia) leading to positive production rates (up to 2 ppbv per day) in the lower and mid TTL even at moderate NOx levels. Photochemical O3 production increases with higher NOx and H2O in air masses with O3 less than 150 ppbv.

scholarly journals Regional Simulation of the October and November MJO Events Observed during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign at Gray Zone Resolution

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2097-2119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Y. Qiang Sun ◽  
Ying Yue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Surface Precipitation

Abstract This study investigates the October and November MJO events observed during the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY)/Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign through cloud-permitting numerical simulations. The simulations are compared to multiple observational datasets. The control simulation at 9-km horizontal grid spacing captures the slow eastward progression of both the October and November MJO events in surface precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, zonal wind, humidity, and large-scale vertical motion. The vertical motion shows weak ascent in the leading edge of the MJO envelope, followed by deep ascent during the peak precipitation stage and trailed by a broad second baroclinic mode structure with ascent in the upper troposphere and descent in the lower troposphere. Both the simulation and the observations also show slow northward propagation components and tropical cyclone–like vortices after the passage of the MJO active phase. Comparison with synthesized observations from the northern sounding array shows that the model simulates the passage of the two MJO events over the sounding array region well. Sensitivity experiments to SST indicate that daily SST plays an important role for the November MJO event, but much less so for the October event. Analysis of the moist static energy (MSE) budget shows that both advection and diabatic processes (i.e., surface fluxes and radiation) contribute to the development of the positive MSE anomaly in the active phase, but their contributions differ by how much they lead the precipitation peak. In comparison to the observational datasets used here, the model simulation may have a stronger surface flux feedback and a weaker radiative feedback. The normalized gross moist stability in the simulations shows an increase from near-zero values to ~0.8 during the active phase, similar to what is found in the observational datasets.

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