The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality–Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part II: Present versus Future Time Simulation Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (13) ◽  
pp. 3362-3376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Zhao ◽  
Shu-Hua Chen ◽  
Michael J. Kleeman ◽  
Abdullah Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to dynamically downscale the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) projection for the climate change impact on regional meteorological conditions in California. Comparisons were made for meteorological fields that strongly influence regional air quality between the current (2000–06) and future (2047–53) downscaling results to infer potential air pollution changes in California. Changes in both the meteorological fields and the implied future air quality vary by region and season. Analyses showed that the normalized number of stagnation days (NNSD) integrating all stagnation events, during which most of the air pollution episodes occur, in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) will increase and the intensity of stagnation will be stronger in the future for the two main air pollution seasons (i.e., summer and winter). Increases in surface wind and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) were observed for the coastal part of Los Angeles County (LAC) during summer, suggesting stronger ventilation in this region. Contrary situations were seen in other parts of the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and SJV. Although a surface wind change was not evident in SJV during winter, there was a significant PBLH decrease. Climatechangeinduced variations in surface wind and PBLH were only statistically significant in coastal SoCAB and the southern portion of SJV relative to the corresponding interannual variability; changes in temperature are significant throughout the regions studied. The sea breeze along the coast of California plays an important role in the state's climate and air quality, especially during summertime owing to the stronger intensity compared to wintertime. Analysis of the land–sea temperature contrast and the southwesterly wind along the California coastline indicated that the summertime sea breeze will be stronger in the Central Valley (CV) but weaker for the SoCAB region in the future.

The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality–Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part I: Present Time Simulation Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (13) ◽  
pp. 3344-3361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Zhao ◽  
Shu-Hua Chen ◽  
Michael J. Kleeman ◽  
Mary Tyree ◽  
Dan Cayan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Valley Wind ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change on meteorology and air quality conditions in California by dynamically downscaling Parallel Climate Model (PCM) data to high resolution (4 km) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This paper evaluates the present years’ (2000–06) downscaling results driven by either PCM or National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) reanalysis data. The analyses focused on the air quality–related meteorological variables, such as planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, and wind. The differences of the climatology from the two sets of downscaling simulations and the driving global datasets were compared, which illustrated that most of the biases of the downscaling results were inherited from the driving global climate model (GCM). The downscaling process added mesoscale features but also introduced extra biases into the driving global data. The main source of bias in the PCM data is an imprecise prediction of the location and strength of the Pacific subtropical high (PSH). The analysis implied that using simulation results driven by PCM data as the input for air quality models will likely underestimate air pollution problems in California. Regional-averaged statistics of the downscaling results were estimated for two highly polluted areas, the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), by comparing to observations. The simulations driven by GFS data overestimated surface temperature and wind speed for most of the year, indicating that WRF has systematic errors in these two regions. The simulation matched the observations better during summer than winter in terms of bias. WRF has difficulty reproducing weak surface wind, which normally happens during stagnation events in these two regions. The shallow summer PBLH in the Central Valley is caused by the dominance of high pressure systems over the valley and the strong valley wind during summer. The change of meteorology and air quality in California due to climate change will be explored in Part II of this study, which compares the future (2047–53) and present (2000–06) simulation results driven by PCM data and is presented in a separate paper.

NESTED HIGH-RESOLUTION NOx AND PM SIMULATIONS OVER ZÜRICH

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Suter ◽  
Lukas Emmenegger ◽  
Dominik Brunner
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Concentration Levels

<p>Reducing air pollution, which is the world's largest single environmental health risk, demands better-informed air quality policies. Consequently, multi-scale air quality models are being developed with the goal to resolve cities. One of the major challenges in such model systems is to accurately represent all large- and regional-scale processes that may critically determine the background concentration levels over a given city. This is particularly true for longer-lived species such as aerosols, for which background levels often dominate the concentration levels, even within the city. Furthermore, the heterogeneous local emissions, and complex dispersion in the city have to be considered carefully.</p><p>In this study, the impact of processes across a wide range of scales on background concentrations over Switzerland and the city of Zurich was modelled by performing one year of nested European and Swiss national COSMO-ART simulations to obtain adequate boundary conditions for gas-phase chemical, aerosol and meteorological conditions for city-resolving simulations. The regional climate chemistry model COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) was used in a 1-way coupled mode. The outer, European, domain, which was driven by chemical boundary conditions from the global MOZART model, had a 6.6 km horizontal resolution and the inner, Swiss, domain one of 2.2 km. For the city scale, a catalogue of more than 1000 mesoscale flow patterns with 100 m resolution was created with the model GRAMM, based on a discrete set of atmospheric stabilities, wind speeds and directions, accounting for the influence of land-use and topography. Finally, the flow around buildings was solved with the CFD model GRAL forced at the boundaries by GRAMM. Subsequently, Lagrangian dispersion simulations for a set of air pollutants and emission sectors (traffic, industry, ...) based on extremely detailed building and emission data was performed in GRAL. The result of this nested procedure is a library of 3-dimensional air pollution maps representative of hourly situations in Zurich (Berchet et al. 2017). From these pre-computed situations, time-series and concentration maps can be obtained by selecting situations according to observed or modelled meteorological conditions.</p><p>The results were compared to measurements from air quality monitoring network stations. Modelled concentrations of NO<sub>x</sub> and PM compared well to measurements across multiple locations, provided background conditions were considered carefully. The nested multi-scale modelling system COSMO-ART/GRAMM/GRAL can adequately reproduce local air quality and help understanding the relative contributions of local versus distant emissions, as well as fill the space between precise point measurements from monitoring sites. This information is useful for research, policy-making, and epidemiological studies particularly under the assumption that exceedingly high concentrations become more and more localised phenomenon in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of the impact of meteorological conditions on the amount of air pollution in Krakow

2019 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 02012
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Piaskowska-Silarska ◽  
Krzysztof Pytel ◽  
Stanisław Gumuła ◽  
Wiktor Hudy
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Ecological Monitoring ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Pollution Problem ◽  
Air Quality Improvement ◽  
Meteorological Elements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. The publication presents an assessment of the impact of meteorological conditions on air quality in a given location. The subject matter of the work is related to problem-review issues in the field of environmental protection and energy management. The publication draws attention to the fact that despite several decades of ecological monitoring of air pollution, only in recent years attention has been paid to the scale of air pollution problem. The study examined the relationship between meteorological elements (wind velocity, relative humidity on the amount of air pollution immissions. Significant impact of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and thermal braking layer was indicated. The possibilities of air quality improvement were presented based on the measurement data concerning the immission of impurities.

scholarly journals Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367-5390 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kelly ◽  
P. A. Makar ◽  
D. A. Plummer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North American ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Ammonia Emissions

Abstract. Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6) scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here. The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6 emissions for 2050 resulted in an improved air-quality, with decreases in key pollutant concentrations, in acute human mortality associated with air-pollution, and in sulphur and ozone deposition to the ecosystem. The positive outcomes of the RCP 6 emissions reductions were found to be of greater magnitude than the negative outcomes of climate change alone. The RCP 6 scenario however resulted in an increase in the deposition of nitrogen, as a result of increased ammonia emissions expected in that scenario, compared to current ammonia emissions levels. The results of the study raise the possibility that simultaneous reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors may further reduce air pollution levels, with the added benefits of an immediate reduction in the impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health. Further scenarios to investigate this possibility are therefore recommended.

scholarly journals Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Soriano ◽  
Luis Mediero ◽  
Carlos Garijo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flood Quantiles ◽  
The Impact

Climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX predict changes in annual maximum series of daily rainfall in the future in some areas of Spain because of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections supplied by climate models do not usually fit exactly the statistical properties of the observed time series in the control period. Bias correction methods are used to reduce such errors. This paper seeks to find the most adequate bias correction techniques for temperature and precipitation projections that minimizes the errors between observations and climate model simulations in the control period. Errors in flood quantiles are considered to identify the best bias correction techniques, as flood quantiles are used for hydraulic infrastructure design and safety assessment. In addition, this study aims to understand how the expected changes in precipitation extremes and temperature will affect the catchment response in flood events in the future. Hydrological modelling is required to characterize rainfall-runoff processes adequately in a changing climate, in order to estimate flood changes expected in the future. Four catchments located in the central-western part of Spain have been selected as case studies. The HBV hydrological model has been calibrated in the four catchments by using the observed precipitation, temperature and streamflow data available on a daily scale. Rainfall has been identified as the most significant input to the model, in terms of its influence on flood response. The quantile mapping polynomial correction has been found to be the best bias correction method for precipitation. A general reduction in flood quantiles is expected in the future, smoothing the increases identified in precipitation quantiles by the reduction of soil moisture content in catchments, due to the expected increase in temperature and decrease in mean annual precipitations.

scholarly journals Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim van der Schriek ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
Dimitra Founda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contrasting urban and rural settings. Subsequently, we used a five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) to simulate air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005 covering the period 2006–2100. Two 20-year historical reference periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015) were selected with contrasting UHI regimes; the second period had a stronger intensity. The daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (Tmax and Tmin) for the two reference periods were perturbed to two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2076–2095, under the three RCPs, by applying the empirical quantile mapping (eqm) bias-adjusting method. This novel approach allows us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two UHI intensity regimes that are mainly forced by differences in air pollution and heat input. We found that the future frequency of days with Tmax > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. Thus, the impact of heatwaves on the urban environment of Athens is dependent on UHI intensity. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with Tmin > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site. This large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot nights is likely caused by air pollution. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be highly effective in reducing urban temperatures and extreme heat events in Athens under future climate change scenarios. Such policies directly have multiple benefits, including reduced electricity (energy) needs, improved living quality and strong health advantages (heat- and pollution-related illness/deaths).

scholarly journals The Warming Tibetan Plateau improves winter air quality in the Sichuan Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyu Zhao ◽  
Tian Feng ◽  
Xuexi Tie ◽  
Zebin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Sichuan Basin ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Warming Rate ◽  
The Sichuan Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Impacts of global climate change on the occurrence and development of air pollution have attracted more attentions. This study investigates impacts of the warming Tibetan Plateau on air quality in the Sichuan Basin. Meteorological observations and ERA-interim reanalysis data reveal that the Tibetan Plateau has been rapidly warming during the last 40 years (1979–2017), particularly in winter when the warming rate is approximately twice as much as the annual warming rate. Since 2013, the winter temperature over the plateau has even risen by 2 °C. Here, we use the WRF-CHEM model to assess the impact of the 2 °C warming on air quality in the Sichuan Basin. The model results show that the 2 °C warming causes an increase in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height and a decrease in the relative humidity (RH) in the basin. The elevated PBL height strengthens vertical diffusion of PM2.5, while the decreased RH significantly reduces secondary aerosol formation. Overall, PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 17.5 % (~ 25.1 μg m−3), of which the reduction in primary and secondary aerosols is 5.4 μg m−3 and 19.7 μg m−3, respectively. These results reveal that the recent warming plateau has improved air quality in the basin, to some certain extent, mitigating the air pollution therein. Nevertheless, climate system is particularly complicated, and more studies are needed to demonstrate the impact of climate change on air quality in the downstream regions as the plateau is likely to continue warming.

Simulating the impact of future climate change on runoff processes in selected catchments of Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Kamila Hlavcova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>The future development of the runoff conditions, as a consequence of climate change, is of great interest for water managers. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection.</p><p>The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the runoff regime in five selected catchments located in the territory of Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for future time horizons were prepared by a regional climate model KNMI using the A1B emission scenario. The selected climatic scenario predicts a general increase in air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). For simulations of runoff under changed conditions, a lumped rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was used. This model belongs to a group of conceptual models and follows a structure of a widely used Swedish HBV model. The TUW model was calibrated for the period of 2011 – 2019. We assumed that this period would be similar (to recent/warmer climate) in terms of the average daily air temperatures and daily precipitation totals. The future changes in runoff due to climate change were evaluated by comparing the simulated long-term mean monthly runoff for the current state (1981-2010) and modelled scenarios in three time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). The results indicate that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future. The runoff should increase in winter months compared to the reference period. This increase is probably related to a rise in temperature and anticipated snowmelt. Conversely, during the summer periods, a decrease in the long-term runoff could be assumed. According to modelling, these changes will be more pronounced in the later time horizons.</p><p>It should be noted that the results of the simulation are dependent on the availability of the inputs, the hydrological/climate model used, the schematization of the simulated processes, etc. Therefore, they need to be interpreted with a sufficient degree of caution</p>

scholarly journals Assess the impacts of climate change on the patterns of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow in the Abelti Watershed of Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
BEYENE AKIRSO ALEHU ◽  
Seble Gizachew Bitana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling ◽  
Sustainable Resources ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Changes in rainfall, temperature and streamflow (stf) will be one of the most critical factors determining the overall impact of climate change (CC). Thus, in this study we evaluated rainfall(rf), temperature, and stf pattern under changing climate in the Abelti-Watershed (a sub-watershed of upper Omo Gibe basin), Ethiopia. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa database selected for the near (2011-2040), med (2041-2070), and end (2071-2100) periods. Hydrologic Engineering Centers-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model applied for stf projection. XL-STAT conducts average annual and seasonal rf, minimum and maximum temperature (tmin&tmax), and stf trend tests. Mean seasonal and annual rf and stf variation evaluation taken using the coefficient of variation (CV). Finally, the impact of CC analysis is taken based on the baseline period. The results revealed that the climate model projection is successful for given weather stations. HEC-HMS model showed a satisfactory performance during calibration (R2=0.82) and validation (R2=0.78). The MK trend of tmin&tmax show significantly increasing; whereas rf and stf show insignificantly decreasing except under RCP8.5. The rf and stf CV analysis indicated less, moderate, and high in the study area. And the future long year average annual rf increased by -3.6%, -1.9% and -7.7%; temperature +1.15%, +2.2% and +4.2%; and stf -2.9%, -0.05% and -8.5% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Thus, the decrement in rf and the increment in temperature lead to more evapotranspiration and affect the stf negatively. In conclusion, stf in the Abelti-watershed could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health for the future. Therefore, this study may contribute to the planning and implementation of sustainable resources development and management strategies and help to mitigate the consequences of CC.

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