A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results

Abstract The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge forecasts were forced using an asymmetric gradient wind model (AWM), directly coupled to ADCIRC at every time step and at every grid node. A total of 20 forecast advisories and best-track data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were used as input parameters into the wind model. Differences in maximum surge elevations were evaluated for ensembles comprised of the final 20, 15, 10, and 5 forecast advisories plus the best track. For this particular storm, the final 10–12 forecast advisories, encompassing the last 2.5–3 days of the storm’s lifetime, give a reasonable estimate of the final storm surge and inundation. The results provide a detailed perspective of the variability in the storm surge due to variability in the meteorological forecast and how this changes as the storm approaches landfall. This finding is closely tied to the consistency and accuracy of the NHC storm track forecasts and the predicted landfall location and, therefore, cannot be generalized to all storms in all locations. Nevertheless, this first attempt to translate variability in forecast meteorology into storm surge variability provides useful insights for guiding the potential use of storm surge models for forecast purposes. Model skill was also evaluated for Hurricane Gustav by comparing observed water levels with hindcast modeled water levels forced by river flow, tides, and several sources of wind data. The AWM (which ingested best-track information from NHC) generated winds that were slightly higher than those from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) H*Wind analyses and substantially greater than the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Surge obtained using the AWM more closely matched the observed water levels than that computed using H*Wind; however, this may be due to the neglect of the contribution of wave setup to the surge, especially in exposed areas. Several geographically distinct storm surge response regimes, some characterized by multisurge pulses, were identified and described.

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ADAPTATION PATHWAY FOR A BARRIER ISLAND TO FUTURE HURRICANES

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36.papers.52 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 52

Author(s):

Stephanie Smallegan ◽

Evan Mazur

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Barrier Island ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Water Levels ◽

Storm Damage ◽

Sea Levels ◽

The North ◽

Adaptation Pathway ◽

Comprehensive Study

The numerical model XBeach is used to simulate hydrodynamics and morphological change of Bay Head, NJ, which is located on a developed barrier island. Bay Head is fronted with a seawall buried beneath its dunes, and the seawall has been shown to mitigate damage due to storm surge and waves during Hurricane Sandy (2012). The objective of this study is to re-evaluate the effectiveness of the seawall in mitigating damage from a synthetic storm and sea level rise, and refine an adaptation pathway previously created for Bay Head. Utilizing the wave and surge data generated from the North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study, synthetic Storm 391 is simulated using XBeach. Model results show the seawall is overtopped by storm surge and waves, causing overwash and reducing dune heights. As sea levels rise, the backbarrier region of the barrier island is severely eroded and the seawall acts as a barrier preventing elevated bay water levels from freely flowing across the island and into the ocean, exacerbating sediment transport on the backbarrier. To fully evaluate the capabilities and limitations of the seawall in mitigating storm damage, additional synthetic storms need to be simulated and the results re-evaluated. This will, in turn, lead to a comprehensive, more robust adaptation pathway for Bay Head.

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Assimilation of Piezometric Data to Calibrate Parsimonious Daily Hydrological Models

Water ◽

10.3390/w13172342 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (17) ◽

pp. 2342

Author(s):

Axel Flinck ◽

Nathalie Folton ◽

Patrick Arnaud

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

River Flow ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Water Levels ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Rainfall Time Series ◽

Time Step ◽

Processing Methods ◽

Analysis System ◽

Set Up

Low water levels are a seasonal phenomenon, which can be long, short, and more or less intense, affecting entire watercourses. This phenomenon has become a concern for many countries who seek better understanding of the processes that affect it and learn how to optimally manage water resources (pumping, irrigation). Consequently, a lumped rainfall model at daily time step (GR) has been defined, calibrated, and regionalised over French territories. The input data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data throughout the French territory. This model could be improved, in particular to more accurately simulate the hydrological response of watersheds interacting with groundwater. The idea is to use piezometric data from the ADES bank, available in France, and to use it for the calibration phase of the hydrological model. The analysis was carried out across ten French catchments that are representative of various hydrometeorological behaviours and are located in a diverse hydrogeological context. Each catchment must be represented by a piezometer that closely represents the main aquifer that interacts with the basin. This piezometer is located on part of the watershed that is most covered in terms of its drainage network, and closest to its outlet. Different signal processing methods are used to characterise the relationship between the fluctuation of river flow, piezometric levels and rainfall time series. Potential processing methods will be carried out in the temporal domain. To quantify groundwater table inertia and that of the catchment area, correlograms were calculated from daily chronicles of flows and piezometric levels. A cross-correlatory analysis was set up to see, in more detail, the correlations between the flow rates (especially base flows) and piezometric level time series. This type of analysis makes it possible to study relationships between various observations, and tests were carried out to take this information into account during the phase of the calibration of hydrological model parameters. These different analyses will hopefully help us to use piezometric data to consolidate the quality and robustness of the modelling.

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NUMERICAL STORM SURGE FORECASTING

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v16.56 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 1 (16) ◽

pp. 56

Author(s):

Manfred Engel

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

North Sea ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Water Levels ◽

Pressure Gradients ◽

Practical Applications ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

The present state of the development of an operative storm surge prediction system in Germany is described. It is based on numerical models of the atmosphere and the North Sea. First simulations of the storm surge on Jan. 3, 1976 yield the result, that the observed water levels along the North Sea coasts can be recalculated quite well using a meteorological input derived from observations, Whereas the forecasted water levels, using the predicted geostrophic winds of the atmospheric model, are too low since the pressure gradients are too weak. A series of storm surge recalculations with observed and predicted meteorological data shall answer the question, wether parameter fits, applied to the predicted wind stress, lead to satisfying results, suitable for practical applications.

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Bayesian Networks for storm surge estimation in Mississippi (US)

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21878 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alvaro Prida ◽

Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza ◽

Jeremy Bricker ◽

Oswaldo Morales ◽

Remy Meynadier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Networks ◽

Bayesian Network ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Forward Direction ◽

Historical Event ◽

Forward Speed ◽

Hydrodynamic Models ◽

The North ◽

Landfall Location ◽

Very High

Bayesian Networks for storm surge estimation in Mississippi (US)A. Prida1, A. Diaz Loaiza1, J. Bricker1, R. Meynadier2, O. Morales-Napoles1, T. Duong3, R. Ranasinghe3, A. Luijendijk1The unprecedented damage due to flood caused by hurricanes like Katrina (2005) has reinforced the interest of the hydraulic community to improve the storm surge estimation for the North Gulf of Mexico. Very high-resolution hydrodynamic models have been traditionally used for this end. However, these models are computationally very expensive. In this paper, a Bayesian Network (BN) is built to estimate storm surge at the coastal areas of Mississippi. A catalogue of HURDAT2 historical hurricanes is simulated in Delft3D FM to generate a surge data base that is used for the training of the Bayesian Network. The storm surge obtained from Delft3D FM is validated against observations recorded during a past historical event. The landfall location, the maximum wind speed, the forward speed and the forward direction of the hurricane at landfall are the other variables considered in the Bayesian Network. The Bayesian Network is validated by inferring values from past historical events in the model and comparing the modeled surge to observations.

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Storm surge and extreme river discharge: a compound event analysis using ensemble impact modelling

10.5194/hess-2018-103 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Sonu Khanal ◽

Nina Ridder ◽

Hylke de Vries ◽

Wilco Terink ◽

Bart van den Hurk

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

River Discharge ◽

Western Europe ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Water Levels ◽

Time Lags ◽

Event Analysis ◽

Data Set ◽

The North

Abstract. Many winter deep low-pressure systems passing over Western Europe have the potential to induce significant storm surge levels along the coast of the North Sea. The accompanying frontal systems lead to large rainfall amounts, which can result in river discharges exceeding critical thresholds. The risk of disruptive societal impact increases strongly if river runoff and storm-surge peak occur near-simultaneously. For the Rhine catchment and the Dutch coastal area, existing studies suggest that no such relation is present at time lags shorter than six days. Here we re-investigate the possibility of finding near-simultaneous storm surge and extreme river discharge using an extended data set derived from a storm surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) and two hydrological river-discharge models (SPHY and HBV96) forced with conditions from a high-resolution (0.11°/12 km) regional climate model (RACMO2) in ensemble mode (16 × 50 years). We find that the probability for finding a co-occurrence of extreme river discharge at Lobith and storm surge conditions at Hoek van Holland are up to four times higher (than random chance) for a broad range of time lags (−2 to 10 days, depending on exact threshold). This highlights that the hazard of a co-occurrence of high river discharge and coastal water levels cannot be neglected in a robust risk assessment.

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A Medieval Burial from Graham Street, Leith, Edinburgh

Scottish Archaeological Journal ◽

10.3366/saj.2003.25.2.165 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 165-169

Author(s):

Paul R. J. Duffy ◽

Olivia Lelong

Keyword(s):

Contextual Information ◽

Human Remains ◽

Housing Development ◽

Archaeological Research ◽

Archaeological Excavation ◽

Radiocarbon Dates ◽

Physical Evidence ◽

Research Division ◽

The North ◽

The Individual

Summary An archaeological excavation was carried out at Graham Street, Leith, Edinburgh by Glasgow University Archaeological Research Division (GUARD) as part of the Historic Scotland Human Remains Call-off Contract following the discovery of human remains during machine excavation of a foundation trench for a new housing development. Excavation demonstrated that the burial was that of a young adult male who had been interred in a supine position with his head orientated towards the north. Radiocarbon dates obtained from a right tibia suggest the individual died between the 15th and 17th centuries AD. Little contextual information exists in documentary or cartographic sources to supplement this scant physical evidence. Accordingly, it is difficult to further refine the context of burial, although a possible link with a historically attested siege or a plague cannot be discounted.

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Sources of Chlorophenolic Compounds to the Fraser River Estuary

Water Quality Research Journal ◽

10.2166/wqrj.1988.005 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 55-68 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

J. H. Carey ◽

J. H. Hart

Keyword(s):

River Flow ◽

River Estuary ◽

Low Flow ◽

Fraser River ◽

Pulp Mills ◽

Flow Conditions ◽

Downstream Site ◽

Upstream Site ◽

The North ◽

Main River

Abstract The identity and concentrations of chlorophenolic compounds in the Fraser River estuary were determined under conditions of high and low river flow at three sites: a site upstream from the trifurcation and at downstream sites for each main river arm. Major chlorophenolics present under both flow regimes were 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP), 2,3,4,6-tetrachlorophenol (2,3,4,6-TeCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), tetrachloroguaiacol (TeCG) and a compound tentatively identified as 3,4,5-trichloroguaiacol (3,4,5-TCG). Under high flow conditions, concentrations of the guaiacols were higher than any of the Chlorophenols and concentrations of all five chlorophenolics appeared to correlate. Under low flow conditions, concentrations of chloroguaiacols were higher than Chlorophenols at the upstream site and at the downstream site on the Main Arm, whereas at the downstream site on the North Arm, concentrations of 2,3,4,6-TeCP and PCP were higher than the chloroguaiacols in some samples. Overall, the results indicate that pulp mills upstream from the estuary are important sources of chlorophenolics to the estuary under all flow conditions. Additional episodic inputs of 2,3,4,6-TeCP and PCP from lumber mills occur along the North Arm. When these inputs occur, they can cause the concentrations of Chlorophenols in the North Arm to exceed provisional objectives. If chloroguaiacols are included as part of the objective, concentrations of total chlorophenolics in water entering the estuary can approach and exceed these objectives, especially under low flow conditions.

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Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.aba4844 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (50) ◽

pp. eaba4844

Author(s):

Brice R. Rea ◽

Ramón Pellitero ◽

Matteo Spagnolo ◽

Philip Hughes ◽

Susan Ivy-Ochs ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Storm Track ◽

Younger Dryas ◽

Jet Stream ◽

The North ◽

Blocking High ◽

Last Glaciation ◽

The Alps ◽

Precipitation Anomalies ◽

Climate Cooling

The Younger Dryas (YD) was a period of rapid climate cooling that occurred at the end of the last glaciation. Here, we present the first palaeoglacier-derived reconstruction of YD precipitation across Europe, determined from 122 reconstructed glaciers and proxy atmospheric temperatures. Positive precipitation anomalies (YD versus modern) are found along much of the western seaboard of Europe and across the Mediterranean. Negative precipitation anomalies occur over the Fennoscandian ice sheet, the North European Plain, and as far south as the Alps. This is consistent with a more southerly and zonal storm track, which is linked to a concomitant southern location of the Polar Frontal Jet Stream, generating cold air outbreaks and enhanced cyclogenesis, especially over the eastern Mediterranean. This atmospheric configuration resembles the modern Scandinavian (SCAND) circulation over Europe (a blocking high pressure over Scandinavia pushing storm tracks south and east), and by analogy, a seasonally varying palaeoprecipitation pattern is interpreted.

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Lake and inland dunes as interconnected Systems: The story of Lake Tresssee and an adjacent dune field (Schleswig-Holstein, North Germany)

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683620981684 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 095968362098168

Author(s):

Christian Stolz ◽

Magdalena Suchora ◽

Irena A Pidek ◽

Alexander Fülling

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Bronze Age ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

High Water ◽

Alluvial Fan ◽

Water Levels ◽

Lake Area ◽

Dune Field ◽

The North ◽

Sand Drift

The specific aim of the study was to investigate how four adjacent geomorphological systems – a lake, a dune field, a small alluvial fan and a slope system – responded to the same impacts. Lake Tresssee is a shallow lake in the North of Germany (Schleswig-Holstein). During the Holocene, the lake’s water surface declined drastically, predominately as a consequence of human impact. The adjacent inland dune field shows several traces of former sand drift events. Using 30 new radiocarbon ages and the results of 16 OSL samples, this study aims to create a new timeline tracing the interaction between lake and dunes, as well, as how both the lake and the dunes reacted to environmental changes. The water level of the lake is presumed to have peaked during the period before the Younger Dryas (YD; start at 10.73 ka BC). After the Boreal period (OSL age 8050 ± 690 BC) the level must have undergone fluctuations triggered by climatic events and the first human influences. The last demonstrable high water level was during the Late Bronze Age (1003–844 cal. BC). The first to the 9th century AD saw slightly shrinking water levels, and more significant ones thereafter. In the 19th century, the lake area was artificially reduced to a minimum by the human population. In the dunes, a total of seven different phases of sand drift were demonstrated for the last 13,000 years. It is one of the most precisely dated inland-dune chronologies of Central Europe. The small alluvial fan took shape mainly between the 13th and 17th centuries AD. After 1700 cal. BC (Middle Bronze Age), and again during the sixth and seventh centuries AD, we find enhanced slope activity with the formation of Holocene colluvia.

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Impact of Extreme Drought Climate on Water Security in North Borneo: Case Study of Sabah

Water ◽

10.3390/w12041135 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1135

Author(s):

Carolyn Payus ◽

Lim Ann Huey ◽

Farrah Adnan ◽

Andi Besse Rimba ◽

Geetha Mohan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resource ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Water Security ◽

Water Levels ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Northeast Monsoon ◽

Water Insecurity ◽

The North ◽

North Borneo

For countries in Southeast Asia that mainly rely on surface water as their water resource, changes in weather patterns and hydrological systems due to climate change will cause severely decreased water resource availability. Warm weather triggers more water use and exacerbates the extraction of water resources, which will change the operation patterns of water usage and increase demand, resulting in water scarcity. The occurrence of prolonged drought upsets the balance between water supply and demand, significantly increasing the vulnerability of regions to damaging impacts. The objectives of this study are to identify trends and determine the impacts of extreme drought events on water levels for the major important water dams in the northern part of Borneo, and to assess the risk of water insecurity for the dams. In this context, remote sensing images are used to determine the degree of risk of water insecurity in the regions. Statistical methods are used in the analysis of daily water levels and rainfall data. The findings show that water levels in dams on the North and Northeast Coasts of Borneo are greatly affected by the extreme drought climate caused by the Northeast Monsoon, with mild to the high risk recorded in terms of water insecurity, with only two of the water dams being water-secure. This study shows how climate change has affected water availability throughout the regions.

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